Anybody here getting that greasy "$27k" feeling?

[serialk11r]

You're oversimplifying, supply and demand is a simple concept but in reality how do you predict demand? With a somewhat radical product like this it'll be especially difficult.

[82mm 4g63]

Originally Posted by Praetendere

That, and it's a Hyundai. I just can't ever picture owning one on purpose.

To be honest, that was how I felt about Hyundai until about 2 years ago. It's also how I felt about Scion until the FR-S was announced.

[oneday]

Originally Posted by Praetendere

That, and it's a Hyundai. I just can't ever picture owning one on purpose.

You are in the minority...well at least a diminishing majority.

[bofa]

Originally Posted by oneday

You are in the minority...well at least a diminishing majority.

That article fails in so many ways...

The first paragraph says...

Kelley Blue Book has declared that the Korean manufacturer has beat out Honda, Toyota, Ford and Subaru in customer loyalty.

And the second says...

Clearly, vehicle research doesn't exactly translate to owner loyalty

The article is based on how many current owners shopped the same brand in the first quarter of this year. Shopped, not bought. I can't tell you how many cars I've shopped and never would actually buy.

No doubt Hyundai is gaining ground. I still can't justify that large of a purchase with them yet, but that's me. There are too many alternatives, especially as their prices have slowly crept up alongside their notoriety.

[82mm 4g63]

Originally Posted by bofa

That article fails in so many ways...

The first paragraph says...


And the second says...


The article is based on how many current owners shopped the same brand in the first quarter of this year. Shopped, not bought. I can't tell you how many cars I've shopped and never would actually buy.

No doubt Hyundai is gaining ground. I still can't justify that large of a purchase with them yet, but that's me. There are too many alternatives, especially as their prices have slowly crept up alongside their notoriety.

I agree and disagree with you. At first I thought the article proved nothing, but after rethinking it I think it actually says a lot. I think they're emphasizing the wrong percentages.

I, just like you, am a perpetual test driver. I do a lot of car shopping whether I am in the market for a car at that time or not...but that statistic shouldn't be the point. What is impressive about these percentages is how Hyundai scared off fewer of their customers than the competition did theirs.

For Hyundai, 52.3% of Hyundai owners looked at other Hyundai vehicles when it came time to buy something new to replace their current vehicle. That's great and all, but the number to look at is 47.7% of Hyundai owners didn't even humor the idea of being a repeat customer. Compare that to Honda and Toyota. 50.3% of Honda customers and 52.3% Toyota customers didn't even humor the idea of being a repeat customer.

TLDR; Hyundai scared off 47.7% of their current customers. Honda scared off 50.3% of their current customers. Toyota scared off 52.3% of their current customers. Pretty impressive IMHO.

[tranzformer]

Originally Posted by bofa

That article fails in so many ways...

The first paragraph says...


And the second says...


The article is based on how many current owners shopped the same brand in the first quarter of this year. Shopped, not bought. I can't tell you how many cars I've shopped and never would actually buy.

No doubt Hyundai is gaining ground. I still can't justify that large of a purchase with them yet, but that's me. There are too many alternatives, especially as their prices have slowly crept up alongside their notoriety.

This is exhibit #200 of crappy articles that autoblog allows to be published on its website. That article doesn't even consist of good research and makes no sense and tries to come to conclusions that their data does not support. Bunch of rubbish.

[bofa]

Originally Posted by 82mm 4g63

I agree and disagree with you. At first I thought the article proved nothing, but after rethinking it I think it actually says a lot. I think they're emphasizing the wrong percentages.

I, just like you, am a perpetual test driver. I do a lot of car shopping whether I am in the market for a car at that time or not...but that statistic shouldn't be the point. What is impressive about these percentages is how Hyundai scared off fewer of their customers than the competition did theirs.

For Hyundai, 52.3% of Hyundai owners looked at other Hyundai vehicles when it came time to buy something new to replace their current vehicle. That's great and all, but the number to look at is 47.7% of Hyundai owners didn't even humor the idea of being a repeat customer. Compare that to Honda and Toyota. 50.3% of Honda customers and 52.3% Toyota customers didn't even humor the idea of being a repeat customer.

TLDR; Hyundai scared off 47.7% of their current customers. Honda scared off 50.3% of their current customers. Toyota scared off 52.3% of their current customers. Pretty impressive IMHO.

Please tell me you are joking. Scared off fewer of their own customers? That's something you wont see on a poster at TAS. All this means is that the customer said, I have a Hyundai, are there any other Hyundai cars I might consider? This doesn't go into what type of car they were shopping, if they were actually intending to purchase a car at the time, their budget, nothing substantial whatsoever. This could be swayed alone by loyalty cash and/or financing incentives. I guarantee you these were poll results - which in itself is laughable.

Just because I don't shop a Nissan for my next car doesn't mean I don't like the brand - it means I know their current offerings and none fit my taste within my purchase window. Likewise, if I did shop Nissan again it doesn't mean I'm loyal to the brand - it means they have something that peaked my interest at the time, and still doesn't result in actual sales.

This is speculation reporting at its finest, and the same reason oil jumps a dollar a gallon when someone mentions the word "shortage", even if they were just referring to Danny DeVito.

[tranzformer]

The only data that would matter in this case is find out what brand new car people recently purchased and what brand that new car replaced. None of this window shopping pseudo-research.

[SVTSHC]

Originally Posted by switchlanez

^Sorry, got lazy there and threw some abstract jargon at you. Maybe I can explain by numbers.

Say it costs Toyota $18k to make/sell each FR-S and $15k for each tC. Let's say the tC sells for $20k at the dealer and the FR-S sticker price is variable (see below). Profits for varying FR-S price points could be:

[Case 1: FR-S = $23k]
Projected demand: 9,000 FR-S vs. 5,000 tC
FR-S profit: $45,000,000
tC profit: $35,000,000
Total profit: $70,000,000

[Case 2: FR-S = $25k]
Projected demand: 7,000 FR-S vs. 7,000 tC
FR-S profit: $49,000,000
tC profit: $35,000,000
Total profit: $84,000,000

[Case 3: FR-S = $27k]
Projected demand: 4,000 FR-S vs. 7,500 tC
FR-S profit: $36,000,000
tC profit: $37,500,000
Total profit: $73,000,000

I hope my demand numbers make sense. I basically thought the lower the FR-S price, the more it will steal tC sales [Case 1]. But if Toyota prices the FR-S too high they'll definitely sell more tCs but barely any FR-Ss [Case 3]. In both cases 1 and 3 they will profit, but the sweet spot which maximizes profit is in Case 2. It's a super simplification but hope it makes sense.

A quick death from poor sales of the FR-S won't happen because Toyota is smart enough to avoid that... they plug in a price and their analyst (most likely a computer) automatically chugs out how many units to produce to still be profitable then do the whole profit optimization thing (like I tried to do above) when compared against the car market. For sure tC sales will be lower next year so they will cut back on its supply to exactly meet projected demand and profit from it.

Never attempt to make any sort of demand assumption for a product, it leads to severe shortages and overages. The simple fact that the tC and the FR-S aren't in the same product niche is enough to invalidate the numbers. Demographically speaking the FR-S would appeal to RWD enthusiasts/males (from experience very few women actually care whether or not a vehicle is RWD or FWD, and would prefer a FWD/AWD vehicle for inclement weather driving) more than the tC, the tC may appeal to a more mature crowd/women/FWD enthusiasts. People that live in areas with snow might prefer an FR-S but would have to go with a tC if they couldn't afford a winter vehicle. etc etc... The short of it is in the real world there are too many variables.

[82mm 4g63]

Originally Posted by bofa

Please tell me you are joking. Scared off fewer of their own customers? That's something you wont see on a poster at TAS. All this means is that the customer said, I have a Hyundai, are there any other Hyundai cars I might consider? This doesn't go into what type of car they were shopping, if they were actually intending to purchase a car at the time, their budget, nothing substantial whatsoever. This could be swayed alone by loyalty cash and/or financing incentives. I guarantee you these were poll results - which in itself is laughable.

Just because I don't shop a Nissan for my next car doesn't mean I don't like the brand - it means I know their current offerings and none fit my taste within my purchase window. Likewise, if I did shop Nissan again it doesn't mean I'm loyal to the brand - it means they have something that peaked my interest at the time, and still doesn't result in actual sales.

This is speculation reporting at its finest, and the same reason oil jumps a dollar a gallon when someone mentions the word "shortage", even if they were just referring to Danny DeVito.

Do sales numbers not reflect it?

[bofa]

One word... earthquake. And Toyota is still winning. And I'm not even a toyota fanboy.

[82mm 4g63]

Originally Posted by bofa

One word... earthquake. And Toyota is still winning. And I'm not even a toyota fanboy.

No doubt, the earthquake obviously hurt sales across the region, but what happened with Nissan and Mitsubishi sales then?

[bofa]

My guess would be that since they typically move fewer cars, the slowdown impacted them less.

[Random_Art]

Originally Posted by bofa

My guess would be that since they typically move fewer cars, the slowdown impacted them less.

I don't even know where a Mitsubishi dealership is around here. The two that I knew of in the area have since closed or dropped Mitsubishi completely from their lots.

On a separate note, I may be moving to Savannah at the end of the year. There's a dealership there that has Subaru, Toyota, and Scion all in one spot. So, I'll be able to compare the two versions side by side.