A pessimist's take on sales success / failure

[DeanStevenson]

Originally Posted by Allch Chcar

Well, Scion is designed to be an enthusiast brand so he's not completely offbase. It's not catered to sportscar enthusiasts by any means. But Scion was not designed to be a mass seller, they intentionally market these cars for lower volumes as an entry level brand. They certainly don't profit of the brand...

Scion was designed to be a youthful brand to bring new customers to Toyota. The average age of a Toyota purchaser had climbed out of the less-than-40 market and Toyota needed to capture them for future sales.

It is most certainly intended to be both high volume and a profit maker.

[tripjammer]

Originally Posted by Buggy51

Some claim around 3000 or so for the BRZ... no idea on Scion.

I am thinking about 3000 a year for the Scion and 3000 a year for the BRZ.....for the first year and then it will go up in the next year.

[tripjammer]

Originally Posted by DeanStevenson

Scion was designed to be a youthful brand to bring new customers to Toyota. The average age of a Toyota purchaser had climbed out of the less-than-40 market and Toyota needed to capture them for future sales.

It is most certainly intended to be both high volume and a profit maker.

Scion is not a high volume seller..

[Buggy51]

Originally Posted by keiri

In life; hope for the best but plan for the worst.

If you have 10k down on this at 25K base you'll be making payments around $275 a month which isn't too bad for a new sports car. If it comes in at 22K base then even better...

Mmm very true. Oh well, everything's speculation and conjecture until release. I think insurance for me will be killer though

[Snoopyalien24]

Originally Posted by yarik83

If it is indeed priced low it HAS to replace scion TC which is declining in sales

Nah i think girls like the tC a lot, and guys can go to the FR-S. No offense to guys that have a tC, i very much like them, just, i dont like the fact its fwd is all.

[Ryephile]

This topic was stirred around a few months ago. A lot of people have a tough time understanding economies of scale. The Motor Trend article estimated 3k BRZ's a year. That's a pretty low number, even for USA-only consumption. Even if we double that in consideration of FR-S's sold, then make a fudge factor for worldwide sales, we end up with perhaps 12k examples a year. This is very low production for a mass-market player like Toyota. This is why they had to have Subaru slip it into an existing facility.

If the car ends up MSRP'ing for low $20k's, it'll be fantastic. Considering Mazda makes a similiar number of Miatae for mid-to-high $20k's on a platform they have amortized over many years, it makes the cost of the FR-S/BRZ a rather good value.

At this point, it's all up to the MSRP and the marketing to ensure the car is a sales success. The development engineers have done all they can, it's all about convincing people to pony up the dollars now.

[Dragonitti]

What the Poster fails to realize is that Yes, they got older and looking for practical cars.....BUT they took their thrills off the street and hit the track (where they have toys for that and a place to run those toys).

Old street racers either take it off the street and to the tracks, or they stop racing.

[iff2mastamatt]

Originally Posted by Ryephile

This topic was stirred around a few months ago. A lot of people have a tough time understanding economies of scale. The Motor Trend article estimated 3k BRZ's a year. That's a pretty low number, even for USA-only consumption. Even if we double that in consideration of FR-S's sold, then make a fudge factor for worldwide sales, we end up with perhaps 12k examples a year. This is very low production for a mass-market player like Toyota. This is why they had to have Subaru slip it into an existing facility.

If the car ends up MSRP'ing for low $20k's, it'll be fantastic. Considering Mazda makes a similiar number of Miatae for mid-to-high $20k's on a platform they have amortized over many years, it makes the cost of the FR-S/BRZ a rather good value.

At this point, it's all up to the MSRP and the marketing to ensure the car is a sales success. The development engineers have done all they can, it's all about convincing people to pony up the dollars now.

I agree 100%. I wouldn't doubt Toyota ramping up more models in later years, but this first generation will definitely be the guinea pigs of this car. If the 86 sells well, I can see Toyota expanding it's sporty lineup.

[Snoopyalien24]

Originally Posted by Ryephile

This topic was stirred around a few months ago. A lot of people have a tough time understanding economies of scale. The Motor Trend article estimated 3k BRZ's a year. That's a pretty low number, even for USA-only consumption. Even if we double that in consideration of FR-S's sold, then make a fudge factor for worldwide sales, we end up with perhaps 12k examples a year. This is very low production for a mass-market player like Toyota. This is why they had to have Subaru slip it into an existing facility.

If the car ends up MSRP'ing for low $20k's, it'll be fantastic. Considering Mazda makes a similiar number of Miatae for mid-to-high $20k's on a platform they have amortized over many years, it makes the cost of the FR-S/BRZ a rather good value.

At this point, it's all up to the MSRP and the marketing to ensure the car is a sales success. The development engineers have done all they can, it's all about convincing people to pony up the dollars now.

We can take an example of the sales of the Honda S2000. Honda - A massive player in the automotive world, and they sold, in the U.S., 3,400 in their first year, but, 6,797 their second, and 9,682 their third! check it out:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_S...and_production

note* it started at $35k to the FR-S and BRZ probably being $10k cheaper

[Ryephile]

Honda S2000 is probably a great example. Yes, the entry price is higher, but it also had a big thing going for it; it came out well before the current turbo DI era [so the pressure for mega-huge power from the internet fan-bois wasn't there], and it had the massive bragging rights of being by far the highest HP/L n/a production engine with a killer 9k RPM redline. The engine sold the car, but it helped that it was a convertible, dead sexy, and was a blast to drive.

As I see it, the engine in the FR-S isn't the primary selling point; it's its low CoG location, flat-4 quirkiness, and "me-too" Nurburgring chassis tuning. IMO those points aren't as easy to get excited about as what the S2000 did when it arrived. Nevertheless, the S2000 sold consistently in the tens of thousands a year for quite a while. If the FR-S/BRZ combo can match that, it'll be a success, IMO.

I also dug up an old press tidbit on the Oizumi plant the cars will be built at. Here's the full article.

The plant at Gunma, which currently has a build capacity of 80,000 vehicles a year, will be upgraded and output will be almost doubled to around 150,000 units annually. Oizumi will be primarily responsible for building the new sports cars planned and designed by Toyota and developed by Fuji Heavy, namely the Toyota FT-86 and Subaru 0846, which is set to begin sales as early as spring next year, reports say.

Though the lineup is as yet unfinalised, the plant is also set to build other models in the Subaru lineup, such as the Legacy, the Impreza and the Forester, to fully utilise production capacity.

So, they're spending $500 Million USD on bumping up capacity by 70k/year, but adding the FR-S/BRZ, Legacy, Impreza, and Forester to the lines. If we divide by 4 the extra capacity, that puts the FR-S/BRZ right at 17.5k/year, which seems plausible when compared to the S2000 production numbers.

[Snoopyalien24]

Honestly from my POV, I want this to sell like the S2000, enough for it to keep selling, but not so much that they are everywhere. I mean, i like being unique, and not being at a red light with 10 cars and their are about 3 other cars the same as mine.

[PAImportTuner]

Originally Posted by tripjammer

WOW the car does not need 17 inch rims? Yeah right...they will never sell it over here with rims smaller than that...its High_Spec or no spec. How is the high-spec even a loaded car? There is no sunroof, no Navigation, no radio If you guys are going for the lesser weight I can understand...45 pounds does make a difference. And I agree with you these specs are all Japanese model specs. The US version might be a bit different...like more or less weight or standard equipment.

WOW auto climate control, HIDS, aluminum pedals, leather steering wheel and smart entry/push start are something most people would not want? They could roll this up in a options package...but Scion don't play that way. If this was gonna be sold by Toyota yes...but its gonna be a Scion....and it probably will come with a radio.

If we are lucky Scion will price the US FR-S at $23k....but figure closer to the mid 20k range.

That's why they'll have sale issues. They have all those options in the tC for 19k in a more practical yet fun car. Those things are standard in their lineup so they should be treating it as such for the FRS and not hike the price up. Better yet just leave it out and spare the con$umer.

You want those options? Go to Subaru model. Once you make the Scion a 25k car and compare it to Subaru's 25k car then you have brand choice. Now who is going to win that war? Subaru. Which techs would you rather work on your car? Subaru. What service and loaner cars you want? Subaru What brand is valued and respected more? Subaru. And who most likely is going to be here 10 years later? Subaru.

Subaru dealer > Scion dealer. The quality of service you get with Subaru surpasses Scion's from experience owning a xB and 3 Subarus.

[fatoni]

Originally Posted by Ryephile

Honda S2000 is probably a great example. Yes, the entry price is higher, but it also had a big thing going for it; it came out well before the current turbo DI era [so the pressure for mega-huge power from the internet fan-bois wasn't there], and it had the massive bragging rights of being by far the highest HP/L n/a production engine with a killer 9k RPM redline. The engine sold the car, but it helped that it was a convertible, dead sexy, and was a blast to drive.

As I see it, the engine in the FR-S isn't the primary selling point; it's its low CoG location, flat-4 quirkiness, and "me-too" Nurburgring chassis tuning. IMO those points aren't as easy to get excited about as what the S2000 did when it arrived. Nevertheless, the S2000 sold consistently in the tens of thousands a year for quite a while. If the FR-S/BRZ combo can match that, it'll be a success, IMO.

I also dug up an old press tidbit on the Oizumi plant the cars will be built at. Here's the full article.



So, they're spending $500 Million USD on bumping up capacity by 70k/year, but adding the FR-S/BRZ, Legacy, Impreza, and Forester to the lines. If we divide by 4 the extra capacity, that puts the FR-S/BRZ right at 17.5k/year, which seems plausible when compared to the S2000 production numbers.

while those selling points might be able to push a few sales, i think the greatness about this car is that it isnt about selling points. its about a car. lets also not forget when the s2k was selling that many cars. we are in a significantly different economic environment. also riding the wave of growing honda fan boys who can now afford a real car had to play a factor.

on another note you should be aware that while miatas list for entirely too much that isnt nearly what they sell for. that isnt going to be the case with the scion.

i think it will be a relatively low production car if the price is set above 24k but thats okay because it seems that it has already done what it was created to do. generate talk about toyota as a sports car company.

[PAImportTuner]

Originally Posted by fatoni

while those selling points might be able to push a few sales, i think the greatness about this car is that it isnt about selling points. its about a car. lets also not forget when the s2k was selling that many cars. we are in a significantly different economic environment. also riding the wave of growing honda fan boys who can now afford a real car had to play a factor.

on another note you should be aware that while miatas list for entirely too much that isnt nearly what they sell for. that isnt going to be the case with the scion.

i think it will be a relatively low production car if the price is set above 24k but thats okay because it seems that it has already done what it was created to do. generate talk about toyota as a sports car company.

2002-2005 were bad times too, it may not have affected you but it affected others. Maybe the statistics don't show it to a certain degree either but it wasn't a great economy.

I'm not sure if you mean that Miatas were being had for 20k or being sold for 25k. I do know they were selling for 21k with options or get near private sale dollar on your trade-in.

People have caused a buzz about Toyota helping make a sports car. Get this though this is Subaru's engineering piece, they borrowed DI technology from Toyota just like other manufactures borrow their hybrid system. Yamaha has worked with a multitude of companies too, not just Toyota. So in essence this is Subaru's sports car with borrowed technology.

Toyota is the marketer, designer, and re-badger. I'm not trying to start a war but it is fact. This venture is kinda like the "you can give a man a fish but if you teach him how to fish he'll have plenty to eat for a life time" saying. Well Subaru gave Toyota a fish and during the process Subaru learned how to fish more efficiently for a life time. At the end of it Toyota still doesn't know how to build a proper sports car. -Also meaning now they'll have higher torque fuel efficient AWD cars like the new 2012 DI Impreza.

You know sales might work out because Toyota/Scion are not alone in this fight. The BRZ, STI, and future race program will surely help boost sales for all makes.