New ICE Vehicles Banned in California by 2035

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by new2subaru

I think there's a lot of assumptions that if a truck is rolling down the road empty it's not being used for it's intended purpose. I also think that is bull.

I have a commercial truck that I use daily (without a company logo) and it is likely empty 80% of the time. BUT, I've been hauling machines back and forth to a different location for a couple of weeks now and have been hauling machines to jobsites. They're tools and don't get any worse mileage than most SUV's. Who cares if someone wants to drive one a a pleasure vehicle.
I don't think everyone should be required to drive a rollerskate.

Stop buying shit and watch the trucks come to a crawl. Transport is a dirty industry. There's more than one way to skin a cat. We're high consumers.

Windfarms a a f'ing eyesore. They destroy the landscape. We have a lot in SW Ontario.

It isn’t an assumption. It is data from a 250k new truck owner survey from a research company that sells their surveys to manufacturers, so those manufacturers can make informed decisions and what type of trucks customers want to buy and what they are doing with their trucks.

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

His assumption was that I’m going off my personal experience in my areas, but I’m going off the statistics I quoted. Then he tried to counter those statistics, even though he said I was going off my personal experience, saying primary buyers are different in their use of trucks than secondary buyers (suggesting secondary buyers use trucks as tools more), which the surveys don’t capture, for which I countered that secondary buyers are not what manufacturers care about, so they will be fine selling EV trucks to the masses who will buy EV trucks for the looks and perceived utility over the true utility, and those EV trucks will meet their needs for 99% or more of the time for 99% or more of the buyers. What am I missing?

You quoted the statistic yourself. A lot of buyers don't actually need a truck, but because they have become the majority of buyers the manufacturers cater more to them then the people who actually do need a truck. This seems even worse with EV trucks as they are upmarket vehicles. This also loops back around to CAFE standards ZDan was talking about with ICE's.

According to Edwards’ data, 75 percent of truck owners use their truck for towing one time a year or less (meaning, never). Nearly 70 percent of truck owners go off-road one time a year or less. And a full 35 percent of truck owners use their truck for hauling—putting something in the bed, its ostensible raison d’être—once a year or less [2].

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

What am I missing?

My last word on the subject (at least for now)...

You are missing the point that EVs are NOT a replacement for truck owners that own trucks because they need trucks for some percentage of their ownership for things that an EV truck is not yet capable of doing.

Using statistics is all well and fine, but sometimes they don't show the whole picture. As the old adage goes sit on a block of ice and stick your head in a lit oven and statistics say you'll be quite comfortable.

Will alternate fuel vehicles eventually replace petroleum based trucks? Yes. Is it there today for people that actually need (vs. desire) a truck. No.

Just seems you always see these things as black and white when there is a lot of gray staring at you.

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by new2subaru

I think there's a lot of assumptions that if a truck is rolling down the road empty it's not being used for it's intended purpose. I also think that is bull.

I have a commercial truck that I use daily (without a company logo) and it is likely empty 80% of the time. BUT, I've been hauling machines back and forth to a different location for a couple of weeks now and have been hauling machines to jobsites. They're tools and don't get any worse mileage than most SUV's. Who cares if someone wants to drive one a a pleasure vehicle.
I don't think everyone should be required to drive a rollerskate.

Stop buying shit and watch the trucks come to a crawl. Transport is a dirty industry. There's more than one way to skin a cat. We're high consumers.

Windfarms a a f'ing eyesore. They destroy the landscape. We have a lot in SW Ontario.

There is also practicality to take into consideration. You have a need to be able to haul something periodically, but I am assuming , not practical to have multiple work vehicles for you. I DD a truck for the same reason, I haul something weekly, but can't justify buying a commuter car to drive for the times I don't.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by NoHaveMSG

You quoted the statistic yourself. A lot of buyers don't actually need a truck, but because they have become the majority of buyers the manufacturers cater more to them then the people who actually do need a truck. This seems even worse with EV trucks as they are upmarket vehicles. This also loops back around to CAFE standards ZDan was talking about with ICE's.

This is the same for manual transmissions, which are favored more by young enthusiasts buying on the secondary market than by older enthusiasts buying new, but manufacturers only care about primary buyers.

I will expect people on the secondary market to complain about a lack of options like I have complained about manual transmissions lacking on the secondary market, but it is what it is. If there are needs, the secondary market will need to figure things out without looking to manufacturers to meet their needs directly.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

My last word on the subject (at least for now)...

You are missing the point that EVs are NOT a replacement for truck owners that own trucks because they need trucks for some percentage of their ownership for things that an EV truck is not yet capable of doing.

Using statistics is all well and fine, but sometimes they don't show the whole picture. As the old adage goes sit on a block of ice and stick your head in a lit oven and statistics say you'll be quite comfortable.

Will alternate fuel vehicles eventually replace petroleum based trucks? Yes. Is it there today for people that actually need (vs. desire) a truck. No.

Just seems you always see these things as black and white when there is a lot of gray staring at you.

I’m looking at the finish line thirty to fifty years down the road and not at each milestone, so that is why you think I see it as black or white. There are hurdles to overcome along the way, but the train is not stopping or turning around, so it is what it is.

Yes, there are heavy users and outliers where EV trucks don’t work. These people will be late adopters, which is expected along any S curve of adoption. They don’t represent the masses, so they can continue to use older trucks for as long as they can until the technology and infrastructure meet their needs. I don’t see this as a problem. These people are the exception and not the rule. a percentage of truck owners who might be heavier users will find ways of adapting. A percentage at the top of heavy users will hold out with older trucks for as long as possible. Okay, that works too. They may not like it, but I don’t like my limited manual options either. I can whine, but it won’t make a difference.

[Lantanafrs2]

^Are you being paid to do this?

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

This is the same for manual transmissions, which are favored more by young enthusiasts buying on the secondary market than by older enthusiasts buying new, but manufacturers only care about primary buyers.

I will expect people on the secondary market to complain about a lack of options like I have complained about manual transmissions lacking on the secondary market, but it is what it is. If there are needs, the secondary market will need to figure things out without looking to manufacturers to meet their needs directly.

All the guys I am talking about are primary buyers. They cycle new work trucks pretty regularly. 3 of them just bought new work trucks this year.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

^Are you being paid to do this?

Yes, you can send cashier’s checks or Amazon gift cards to PO Box 12345 Santa Rosa, CA.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by NoHaveMSG

All the guys I am talking about are primary buyers. They cycle new work trucks pretty regularly. 3 of them just bought new work trucks this year.

I’m going to go with the statistics over your anecdotal experiences, even if there are conglomerations of high users in your personal circle. These high users are likely going to be late adopters and continue to use older vehicles to get buy until the market, infrastructure or technology match their needs.

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

I’m going to go with the statistics over your anecdotal experiences, even if there are conglomerations of high users in your personal circle. These high users are likely going to be late adopters and continue to use older vehicles to get buy until the market, infrastructure or technology match their needs.

And that is fine. Like I stated earlier, this all started from the comment about people who need trucks but can't use the current crop of EV trucks.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by NoHaveMSG

And that is fine. Like I stated earlier, this all started from the comment about people who need trucks but can't use the current crop of EV trucks.

Yeah, but there are always outliers and late adopters on the S curve. The statistics suggest these people are the exception and not the norm. The vast majority of EV truck users will be fine or need to make small adaptations or suffer mild concessions.

I’m not denying that the outliers exist or suggesting that they will get by with EVs today or tomorrow just fine. There will likely be options for them down the road and some intermediate solutions that work, while being less than ideal.

It seems that others and you are arguing the prevalence is higher than the statistics suggest and that the world needs to not take away ICEs until there are solutions, but I’m saying that the world is not going hold back for a special outlier of users. Manufacturers will move on, and these users will need to adapt to the situation by hanging on to older trucks and taking advantage of market solutions.

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Yeah, but there are always outliers and late adopters on the S curve. The statistics suggest these people are the exception and not the norm. The vast majority of EV truck users will be fine or need to make small adaptations or suffer mild concessions.

I’m not denying that the outliers exist or suggesting that they will get by with EVs today or tomorrow just fine. There will likely be options for them down the road and some intermediate solutions that work, while being less than ideal.

It seems that others and you are arguing the prevalence is higher than the statistics suggest and that the world needs to not take away ICEs until there are solutions, but I’m saying that the world is not going hold back for a special outlier of users. Manufacturers will move on, and these users will need to adapt to the situation by hanging on to older trucks and taking advantage of market solutions.

I quite literally did not say that. I have said several times that I think infrastructure needs to improve before these will be viable for that use. If there was at least one fast charger 30-40 miles out, it would completely change the situation. I wouldn't doubt that happens before the 35' new ICE vehicle sales ban either but it is not the current situation.

[new2subaru]

Originally Posted by NoHaveMSG

There is also practicality to take into consideration. You have a need to be able to haul something periodically, but I am assuming , not practical to have multiple work vehicles for you. I DD a truck for the same reason, I haul something weekly, but can't justify buying a commuter car to drive for the times I don't.

This is a company truck that I'm currently driving. It happens to be a 1/2 ton. I have access to it when needed. I've been driving a truck all my life until the last 8-10 years. I have a Juke, a Mini and the FR-S. I prefer smaller cars. More fun However, the truck is far more comfortable on long drives. Boring, but comfy.

Back to the work trucks. We have 5 pickups in the fleet. all 3/4 ton or heavier. I WISH and EV could replace some of them but they can't. Not yet anyways. We haul and tow heavy loads and the range wouldn't work.

IMHO, the governing bodies should have focused more on Hybrids and not solely on EV's. I think we'd be further ahead and it would be easier for people to adopt.

The Ford Maverick, while not a full size truck, get 37mpg combined and 42 highway.