Anybody here getting that greasy "$27k" feeling?

[madfast]

the angle of the pic is bad. look at a profile shot like this



and it looks a lot better. still a tight fit but you'd expect that anyways...

[madfast]

and for comparison the 2011 tC

[switchlanez]

Originally Posted by SVTSHC

Never attempt to make any sort of demand assumption for a product, it leads to severe shortages and overages. The simple fact that the tC and the FR-S aren't in the same product niche is enough to invalidate the numbers. Demographically speaking the FR-S would appeal to RWD enthusiasts/males (from experience very few women actually care whether or not a vehicle is RWD or FWD, and would prefer a FWD/AWD vehicle for inclement weather driving) more than the tC, the tC may appeal to a more mature crowd/women/FWD enthusiasts. People that live in areas with snow might prefer an FR-S but would have to go with a tC if they couldn't afford a winter vehicle. etc etc... The short of it is in the real world there are too many variables.

Disclaimer: My numbers are arbitrary and missing a lot of variable factors but I made them up to illustrate basic concepts for Dimman's curiosity.

If you know Toyota's recent history, they flopped on Project Genesis (trio of Echo, MR2 Spyder, Celica) which birthed the Scion line. Then experimented with the Matrix which is still going. And they've been observing recent sports cars' success and failures on the sideline. Toyota has a better feel than ever + involvement at the community level (via Moto-P) helps tremendously. I have confidence that Toyota has enough "lessons learned" under their belt to know how to make safe demand assumptions... safer than ever. The GC was Hyundai's first RWD sports car and it took off. The FR-S isn't Toyota's first. Toyota has way too much wisdom. Their demand assumption will be a bit off, but not by enough to screw this one up.

[Dimman]

Originally Posted by switchlanez

Disclaimer: My numbers are arbitrary and missing a lot of variable factors but I made them up to illustrate basic concepts for Dimman's curiosity.

If you know Toyota's recent history, they flopped on Project Genesis (trio of Echo, MR2 Spyder, Celica) which birthed the Scion line. Then experimented with the Matrix which is still going. And they've been observing recent sports cars' success and failures on the sideline. Toyota has a better feel than ever + involvement at the community level (via Moto-P) helps tremendously. I have confidence that Toyota has enough "lessons learned" under their belt to know how to make safe demand assumptions... safer than ever. The GC was Hyundai's first RWD sports car and it took off. The FR-S isn't Toyota's first. Toyota has way too much wisdom. Their demand assumption will be a bit off, but not by enough to screw this one up.

One of the girls I work with is a production assistant, and she says that there are whole courses on how companies do, in fact, make very scientific attempts to forecast future demand. Something to do with lean manufacturing. The more accurate they get, the more efficient production can be. And 'The House of Toyota' is a whole section in one of her courses.

[tranzformer]

Originally Posted by Dimman

One of the girls I work with is a production assistant, and she says that there are whole courses on how companies do, in fact, make very scientific attempts to forecast future demand. Something to do with lean manufacturing. The more accurate they get, the more efficient production can be. And 'The House of Toyota' is a whole section in one of her courses.

Very interesting. I wonder if the slow down in the worlds economy has made it harder to anticipate demand or if they have a method to control for that.

[ryun84]

Also plug in natural disaster effects and you have yourself a headache of a math/econ problem.

[switchlanez]

Originally Posted by Dimman

One of the girls I work with is a production assistant, and she says that there are whole courses on how companies do, in fact, make very scientific attempts to forecast future demand. Something to do with lean manufacturing. The more accurate they get, the more efficient production can be. And 'The House of Toyota' is a whole section in one of her courses.

Cool man. Yeah Lean Manufacturing is the same as the Toyota Production System (TPS). I took a class to get TPS Certified back in '06. It employs JIT (just-in-time) meaning every car part, nut, bolt holds value (essentially money). There are ways to efficiently manage the flow of parts from the moment they leave suppliers' docks to the moment they hit the assembly line such that they don't arrive too early nor too late but "just in time." This keeps overhead waaay down. Unlike the old traditional American Big 3's way of hoarding parts in bins for months unused costing millions in real estate because that "storage space" could be used in a more bang-for-buck way (building cars). Toyotas are built "lean" but highly reliable and savings trickle down to us consumers.

TPS also employs Kaizen (continuous improvement) in manufacturing. This philosophy is employed in the cars too... look up specs on any Toyota you'll find somewhat significant design improvements made every year even if in the same generation run (things like passenger side airbag, drive-by-wire, VVT-i, revised gear syncros and shift gates, revised suspension, re-tuned engine making +40 more hp, etc.). That means the FR-S design won't truly be 100% done til its final model year.

[Aki]

Originally Posted by switchlanez

Oh how I wish. I agree tCs will sell more so Scion will simply make less FR-Ss than tCs. Their analysts calculate the different price points and the demands each will garner. This gives them an array supply curves intersecting an array of demand curves, then they calculate which intersection maximizes profit.

It's not that simple, because maximising profit isn't always the goal for a given model. If you have a niche or enthusiast car, sometimes they'll reduce the profit margin or even take a loss (LF-A being an obvious example), in order to bolster the image of the marque as a whole. Since Scion is in a steady decline, they might be willing to sell the FT86 at a reduced profit margin, in order to change the perception of the brand (ricey teenager cars). That in turn will help the rest of the line-up. Especially with a niche vehicle like the FT86, that's very possible.

Also, by nature, entry-level pricing means very slim profit margins. That's why GM/Ford resisted entering that market for so long with quality products, because they didn't want to deal with say a $1,500 profit margin (and with their labor costs it became even harder). Luxury cars, giant SUVs and trucks have better margins than ~$20k cars.

[Spaceywilly]

Originally Posted by Aki

Since Scion is in a steady decline, they might be willing to sell the FT86 at a reduced profit margin, in order to change the perception of the brand (ricey teenager cars).

I don't think the ft86 will do much to change that perception...

[Mari0]

Originally Posted by Spaceywilly

I don't think the ft86 will do much to change that perception...

Except it will actually be a sports car (at least based on what we've seen), unlike the tC. But you are right, any company that sells cheap, sporty looking cars will have "ricers" who think they have something more than they do and will try to race people on every light. Just be thankful it's not a Honda. But honestly, why do you care what other people do? When I bought my tC I knew I was buying a sporty looking econobox & I also knew about the "rep", but that didn't stop me. Also people perceive Porsche drivers as d-bags, will that stop me from buying one down the line if I have the ability to? HELL NO!

But to address your statement, I think the fr-s will be a hit. Will we have racer wannabes? Yes, but we will also have decent folks like the ones on this forum to put a good name on the brand, and of course the majority of buyers won't give a damn. Bottom line, it will increase the declining popularity of the brand, regardless if it will be for good or bad.

I just find it sad that people base their purchases so much on the branding, not because of the quality of the brand, but because of a certain perception a group of the people have towards it. Now I am guilty of it too, because I will never buy a civic, but at least I realize that I am being silly for having that as a reason since they are indeed nice cars. And it doesn't hurt that I can choose Toyota instead

[Spaceywilly]

Yeah I wasn't saying that I wouldn't buy it because of Scion's reputation. I could care less what sticker is on the car, as long as it is as fun to drive as they are making it out to be. But the reality is that a cheap car, with aggressive looks, is going to be bought by teenagers who will put ridiculous body kits and bright orange rims on it. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but if Scion thinks that this is going to change the perception of the brand, I think it will only enforce it. Whether that is good or bad for their sales, like everything about this car, we'll just have to wait and see.

[Aki]

Originally Posted by Spaceywilly

I don't think the ft86 will do much to change that perception...

If it sells well and garners a following of driving purists, I think it'd impact the brand quite a bit.

[SUB-FT86]

I think most buyers of Civic Si/Celica GTS/Rsx Type S will make up the majority buyers since most of those guys crave a high rev 200hp sports coupe. In that case it might do well.

[Dragonitti]

Originally Posted by oneday

Real world>Car magazine metric. The Civic Si is lighter and more agile than the MS3. Power be damned...the 2006-2010 Civic Si is a fantastic handling car and damn fun to flog.

Funny, I never see any on the track.

Originally Posted by Spaceywilly

Yeah I wasn't saying that I wouldn't buy it because of Scion's reputation. I could care less what sticker is on the car, as long as it is as fun to drive as they are making it out to be. But the reality is that a cheap car, with aggressive looks, is going to be bought by teenagers who will put ridiculous body kits and bright orange rims on it. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but if Scion thinks that this is going to change the perception of the brand, I think it will only enforce it. Whether that is good or bad for their sales, like everything about this car, we'll just have to wait and see.

And for the most part...None of that exist in the Scion world. If you see it, it's still done the Right way and not ghetto fabulous.