Quote:
Originally Posted by Spuds
Excess deaths, while a red flag, is not enough evidence to state for a fact that covid deaths were vastly under reported, especially not by a specific number/percentage. My point was to bring up that there are gaps in the data which inhibit the logical progression needed, and those gaps are not likely to be filled, so I doubt the official tally will change.
Does the statistical analysis point to unreported covid deaths as likely, sure. But that seems to be based on certain assumptions, and a different study can come to a very different conclusion by making different, but entirely reasonable assumptions.
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Such as? I don't really find @
cjd's suggestion all that compelling. And @
Dadhawk's suggestion that we re seeing a statistical aberration, while possible (at some low level probability) seems implausible.
Statistical analyses can never really "prove" anything - particularly inferential analyses. All they can do is offer support for a lesser of better educated guess. In this instance someone (not me - at least not yet) could probably create relatively well specified model incorporating as many independent variables as possible _- "shit happens" is not one of them
- (given the obvious missing data problems) model to test the "covid caused excess deaths" hypothesis. I suspect someone already has - it's pretty low hanging fruit.
My bet is at the end of the day Covid will win out, probably by a strong margin. It would be an "interesting project."