Quote:
Originally Posted by Dadhawk
First, let me say I like the idea of swappable batteries, but I see some problems with it (that may have already been overcome as I'm no expert on the subject)
I'm not so sure it will become the best model. Since some huge percent of charging is done "at home", it's likely battery swapping would just replace DCFC on the road for most owners. What I would see as an issue is as the battery fleet gets older, swapping becomes a way of "cheating" the system.
I have a battery that has diminished life. I go to a "swap" station get a battery that is better than the one I have, and never swap again. Now the station has my bad battery and I have a fresh one.
I'm sure there is something in the process that prevents that, but I'm not going to want to be the guy that gets the old battery when I'm on a road trip. I'd rather have "my" battery that I know the range of, than some battery that is unknown to me.
Seems like, in this case, you would have more batteries being retired than not as the "swappable" batteries will have to meet a relatively high standard of percent charge, and folks are going to want them at 100% when swapped, not the more common 80% when charging at home.
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Companies that provide swapping like Nio have business models built around swapping where the car and battery are two separate purchases: the car can be bought/leased complete without the ability to use swapping stations; the car can be bought without a battery, and the battery is leased/swappable with the option to buy a battery in the future; or the whole car is leased/swappable. If someone wants to buy a battery and quit the subscription for swapping then they probably will buy a new battery, or maybe they can buy a battery that used like buying a used car. It isn't really isn't much more complicated than the current car market.
I don't really believe your scenario is likely to happen because the providers of swapping services will have already worked things out. The battery will have its own VIN, and they will know what you have in your car, so if you want to cancel your swapping subscription and keep the new battery then you will just have to pay for keeping that new battery or get a used battery. You won't own any battery you previously used like how you don't own a song you listened to on Apple Music when you finally decided to buy that song in the iTunes Store.
Like buying premium gas, you can buy a premium battery in terms of capacity or power density. This could be a 100kWh battery instead of a 65kWh battery, or it could be a battery at 80-100% charge instead of 50% charge. Maybe you want the big battery at 100kWh for your roadtrip, but you will be leaving in the morning and will charge it at home, so you only need one that is at 50% charge. So many options in terms of needs and how to save/spend.
The benefits of swapping have huge, extremely huge benefits, that shouldn't be overlooked. If manufactures had a single standard then third party manufactures and swapping station owners could provide services that would greatly open the market for competition and decrease costs that much more. Swapping allows people to drive cars with smaller batteries to suit daily needs that are much lighter, which increases efficiency and decreases our material needs at the cost of the car. Battery swapping is typically as fast or faster than filling up with gas, especially on big vehicles like trucks, as the battery size shouldn't reflect any difference in the speed of the swap, and because of this, range anxiety would be non-existent. This also allows us to focus on battery chemistry that is best for longevity, low fire risk, cheap and sustainable than having to use the latest and greatest chemistry for maximum range/power density. Swapping would be a game changer for the shipping industry and for towing/large trucks. Swapping could allow a person to keep their car far longer than a typical ICE car because the rest of the components like the EV motors and electronics would likely last far longer; brakes already last for a long time, so maybe suspension, tires, basics could mean a person (if they so choose) could drive the same car for 30-50+ years.