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AnalogMan · 08-05-2021, 10:26 AM

The previous "Vacci-nation' thread was, understandably and reasonably, closed because it became a cesspool of political mud-slinging. That's a shame.

This is a car forum, not FaceBook. We all (mostly) come here because of our shared interest in the BRZ/86, and cars in general. If someone is really interested in being informed about important developments regarding COVID19 and the pandemic, they should probably be using something else as their primary source of information.

That said, there have been some important scientific findings recently. It might be interesting to some to share factual information (not personal political views) to then further follow up in more detail elsewhere.

To that end, if this thread is allowed to stand (and can remain above being dragged down into partisan mud), here are a few recent major developments that may have bearing on our personal health.

mRNA vaccines have reduced effectiveness against the Delta variant

Recent clinical data from Israel show that several months after vaccination, the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is reduced to about 40% in preventing infection and symptomatic illness, compared with about 95% in newly vaccinated against the original SARS-CoV-2 strain, and 80-88% in newly vaccinated against Delta:

https://www.ynetnews.com/health_scie...icle/s19okqv0u

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....full.pdf+html

The Moderna vaccine is very similar to Pfizer's, and presumably would have very similar effects.

The Pfizer vaccine remains highly effective in preventing serious illness or hospitalization (about 90%) and thus remains a critically important tool in reducing complications, and deaths. But the reduced effectiveness against Delta shows that vaccination alone will not be enough. Other public health measures will be needed if infections and deaths are to be reduced.

Vaccinated individuals may be as contagious as unvaccinated

Studies both by the CDC of the outbreak in Provincetown MA, and the University of Wisconsin, both show that infected vaccinated individuals have similar viral loads to the unvaccinated.

https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.c...f75165.#page=1

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....full.pdf+html

This also implies that asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals can transmit infection:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....full.pdf+html

Need for booster shots

Pfizer presented some data (buried in this presentation) showing that a third dose of their vaccine can increase antibody levels 5-fold in those 18-55, and 11-fold in those 65-85. They estimate a 100-fold increase in Delta neutralization after a third dose:

https://s21.q4cdn.com/317678438/file...arts-FINAL.pdf

As a result, several countries have now started administering third, booster doses of vaccine, starting with the elderly (over 60, which, depressingly, includes me), and immunocompromised: Israel, Germany, U.K., Russia, Hungary, and others.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ne-coronavirus

https://www.axios.com/germany-uk-cov...cdd0906d2.html

Delta variant causes >1,000 times higher viral load

One reason the Delta variant is so highly transmissible, and causes more severe illness, is because it reproduces much more quickly, and to a greater extent, than other strains. Recent studies show that infected individuals have more than 1,000 times the viral load (virions) compared with other strains:

https://virological.org/t/viral-infe...-2-variant/724

In many ways, this makes Delta almost a different disease than we faced before - and with more serious pandemic risks.

Other variants are coming

Delta will not be the last variant we face. Thousands have already been identified, and there are some that appear to show greater risk than Delta in terms of increased vaccine resistance, virulence, and transmissibility. The next threats seem to be Lambda, and B.1.621:

https://www.livescience.com/lambda-c...s-variant.html

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...88754321001798

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1893335.html

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....08.21256619v1

It is inevitable that complete vaccine escape variants will emerge. If we don't take this seriously and implement additional safety measures, more infections and deaths will follow.

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...2-26-july-2021

08-05-2021, 10:26 AM	#1
AnalogMan Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2018 Drives: 2019 BRZ Limited 6 speed Red Location: New England Posts: 498 Thanks: 740 Thanked 1,012 Times in 338 Posts Mentioned: 7 Post(s) Tagged: 0 Thread(s)	COVID Developments and News The previous "Vacci-nation' thread was, understandably and reasonably, closed because it became a cesspool of political mud-slinging. That's a shame. This is a car forum, not FaceBook. We all (mostly) come here because of our shared interest in the BRZ/86, and cars in general. If someone is really interested in being informed about important developments regarding COVID19 and the pandemic, they should probably be using something else as their primary source of information. That said, there have been some important scientific findings recently. It might be interesting to some to share factual information (not personal political views) to then further follow up in more detail elsewhere. To that end, if this thread is allowed to stand (and can remain above being dragged down into partisan mud), here are a few recent major developments that may have bearing on our personal health. mRNA vaccines have reduced effectiveness against the Delta variant Recent clinical data from Israel show that several months after vaccination, the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is reduced to about 40% in preventing infection and symptomatic illness, compared with about 95% in newly vaccinated against the original SARS-CoV-2 strain, and 80-88% in newly vaccinated against Delta: https://www.ynetnews.com/health_scie...icle/s19okqv0u https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....full.pdf+html The Moderna vaccine is very similar to Pfizer's, and presumably would have very similar effects. The Pfizer vaccine remains highly effective in preventing serious illness or hospitalization (about 90%) and thus remains a critically important tool in reducing complications, and deaths. But the reduced effectiveness against Delta shows that vaccination alone will not be enough. Other public health measures will be needed if infections and deaths are to be reduced. Vaccinated individuals may be as contagious as unvaccinated Studies both by the CDC of the outbreak in Provincetown MA, and the University of Wisconsin, both show that infected vaccinated individuals have similar viral loads to the unvaccinated. https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.c...f75165.#page=1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....full.pdf+html This also implies that asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals can transmit infection: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....full.pdf+html Need for booster shots Pfizer presented some data (buried in this presentation) showing that a third dose of their vaccine can increase antibody levels 5-fold in those 18-55, and 11-fold in those 65-85. They estimate a 100-fold increase in Delta neutralization after a third dose: https://s21.q4cdn.com/317678438/file...arts-FINAL.pdf As a result, several countries have now started administering third, booster doses of vaccine, starting with the elderly (over 60, which, depressingly, includes me), and immunocompromised: Israel, Germany, U.K., Russia, Hungary, and others. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ne-coronavirus https://www.axios.com/germany-uk-cov...cdd0906d2.html Delta variant causes >1,000 times higher viral load One reason the Delta variant is so highly transmissible, and causes more severe illness, is because it reproduces much more quickly, and to a greater extent, than other strains. Recent studies show that infected individuals have more than 1,000 times the viral load (virions) compared with other strains: https://virological.org/t/viral-infe...-2-variant/724 In many ways, this makes Delta almost a different disease than we faced before - and with more serious pandemic risks. Other variants are coming Delta will not be the last variant we face. Thousands have already been identified, and there are some that appear to show greater risk than Delta in terms of increased vaccine resistance, virulence, and transmissibility. The next threats seem to be Lambda, and B.1.621: https://www.livescience.com/lambda-c...s-variant.html https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...88754321001798 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1893335.html https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....08.21256619v1 It is inevitable that complete vaccine escape variants will emerge. If we don't take this seriously and implement additional safety measures, more infections and deaths will follow. https://www.gov.uk/government/public...2-26-july-2021