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Just to be clear, 235/40-17 is not the same as stock diameter. 245/40 is spot on (2.5mm difference), so you'll have a slightly shorter tire with 235/40 and a slightly taller tire with 225/45. Not much, mind you. I had 235/45 on mine that were take offs from my STi, but I felt they were too tall. That and heavy wheels made the car feel sluggish. Light wheels and some good 225/45s should be great, good grip and very close to stock gearing.
FWIW, the tires I'm getting jump almost $200 when going from 225/45 to 245/40. The speedo isn't that accurate anyway, and that money could go elsewhere.
Regarding hydroplaning, 1-2cm is not going to be that huge of a change. The tread will make a bigger difference.
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