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Kinda hard to measure with the soft rubber, but it looks like the OEM one is a little bigger than then Timken (setting the calipers to 41mm is snug on the Timken, but there's a bit of wiggle room on the OEM). Outside diameter is 70mm on the Timken, and a little more on the OEM, but it can squish to less than 70mm. I suspect that the OEM's metal part is under 70mm, and the rubber creates the seal, while the Timken relies only on the metal press-fit (which is the one I suspect that leaked (seal to diff housing) rather than the axle side (seal to axle)).
It might be that the Timken is more sensitive to correct installation (perfectly flush and even, perfectly clean) while the OEM with its rubber coating can still fully seal if it's not perfect. I used the old seal to hammer the new seal in place, trying to get it to be flush all around (manual says between -0.5mm and 0.5mm is acceptable).
Seeing as the OEM seal can easily be had for less than the Timken, it's only a matter of availability to prefer it, IMO.
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