Quote:
Originally Posted by Spuds
Irace, have you considered the irony of this discussion? Someone who is convinced that all vehicles can be made electric because some battery breakthrough is right around the corner, hydrogen/biofuel is the enemy, and anyone who says otherwise is a heretic is proclaiming that there's no faith involved in science and that religion causes people to be blind to reality?
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Not quite. You may have selective memory about my posts.
All vehicles could be made electric with current battery technology. It may not be as convenient, or it may require battery swapping, it would require building the infrastructure for charging and developing the grid, it may not be cheap now for all class of vehicles, but EVs have already reached price parody with ICEs. Wright's Laws states that the price will drop by 10-20% (15% average for the automotive industry historically) with a doubling of production, and we have a lot of doubling to reach production levels of current ICEs, so yes, EVs will be even cheaper based on economies of scale. This isn't based on faith. It is based on the preponderance of evidence and high degree of probabilities. Anything can happen, which I have always said is possible, but this is the most likely trajectory given all the evidence and reason. Most speculation to the contrary isn't backed by anything more than blind speculation. If you have something sound to share, I'm all ears.
Hydrogen will forever have storage issues, it requires several factor of a larger investments in building the grid, and its applications would be limited to air travel, ships, etc because of those things, so I think it will have a place in the future, but it is a dead end at this time for mass production. I think it will be an option for rural areas and for those that tow a lot, but the better application is plug in hybrids with biofuel for the small percentage of the population where EVs don't make sense. If said this before multiple times that late adopters will be holdouts who would likely use hydrogen or biofuel plug in hybrids where the batteries are big enough to run the car 99% of the time. I think Engineering Explained and other videos on the subject of hydrogen ICEs, HBEVs, and so on cover this subject well.
Same with biofuels. We don't have the land to mono crop significant corn for E85. It is a poor use of space, impacts the environment and less green/CO2 friendly. The cost for carbon capturing to make gas is inherently more expensive when using electricity from renewables to extract CO2 to make fuels when that energy can be used to power cars. This inefficiency means it is only practical for airplanes and ships that might require fuels because batteries aren't energy dense enough. It would be stupid for the masses, and at $20/gal, prohibitive for the masses.
The fact is oil is finite, even if someone wants to deny global warming, so we will need to move to renewables. There isn't much to argue there.
There is no faith involved in science, as it is defined, discussed and used in religion. Completely different. People have trust in science, but their trust is not faith because they could at any time observe nature and measure the same things scientists measure. This happens all the time from flat earthers running experiments or conservative research groups coming to the same conclusions as scientists:
Prominent climate change denier now admits he was wrong
Richard Muller, who directed a Koch-funded climate change project, has undergone a 'total turnaround' on his stance on global warming, which he now admits is caused by human activity.
https://www.csmonitor.com/Science/20...s-he-was-wrong
Religion can definitively cause people to be blind to reality. It can shape their views on a number of issues like whether they can have relationships with gay people, or whether they need to disown their children for being apostates, and so on. If they are fundamentalists and their holy book says the world is 6k-10k years old then they will blatantly ignore any evidence which might jeopardize their faith when their faith is tied to their salvation. I don't know if you are religious or know of anyone who is religious or have talked to anyone about evolution, Big Bang, or anything that conflicts with their religion, but I have, a lot, and the subject of their beliefs, their faith, or anything related is not up for debate. Ask people why they believe what they believe, why aren't they in a different sect or religion, have they studied other religions, etc and their butthole puckers up faster than a turtle into its shell. "No one comes between me and my god" is a common saying.
Anything I have said or claimed is transparent and up for debate, so yeah, I think it is night and day different--no irony.