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Why I think Toyota has advantage so far vs Subaru
My impression to date is that Toyota has gained far more from the FR-Z (FR-S/BRZ/GT86) than Subaru. There are a few reasons for this.
1) Numbers: there are simply far more FR-S out there than BRZ. I think the ratio is about 1:3. Visibility and awareness goes to Toyota/Scion.
2) Price: The price advantage goes to Scion. Particularly with early practices of Subaru dealers.
3) Advertising: Toyota/Scion has done television ads of the FR-S. Has Subaru done anything. Again, Scion wins the awareness game.
4) Marketing Mix: The FR-S is an enormous boost for Scion's underwhelming offerings in the market. On the other hand, the BRZ fits uncomfortably with its all-wheel-drive heritage. In addition, Subaru already makes powerful, great handling cars. The BRZ doesn't break performance ground for them.
5) Differences: The differences between the FR-S and the BRZ are not large enough to offer much differentiation of product. I don't believe that the minor appearance differences, and the addition of alcantara, HIDs and Nav make much difference in the market.
If you read between the lines of the Toyota-Subaru relationship, one can infer that Subaru is the less happy of the partners. Because of this, Toyota is vastly outmarketing Subaru on the FR-Z.
Please understand I am not saying that people won't continue to value and respect the BRZ, just that most people will associate the car with Toyota/Scion.
My conclusion - unless Subaru significantly differentiates its BRZ soon (I.E. all turbo motors or AWD), the FR-S will dominate market perception of the product. Toyota/Scion will have gained the lion's share of the benefits, both in adding some sporty energy to Toyota's product line and by lifting up the Scion sub-brand.
On a purely speculative basis, I predict that given these factors, it is more likely that Toyota will continue to improve and support the FR-Z product. I just can't see Subaru putting a lot of energy into it. There isn't that much of a payoff for them. If someone can make an alternate argument about this - I am listening.
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