Quote:
Originally Posted by Dadhawk
We've been 50 years from running out of oil my entire adult life.
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It depends on how it is calculated. If it is based on current reserves and at current usage with no prospect of finding oil or on the change in demand or rate of change of extraction or whatever then the numbers can get fudged good or bad.
We could always find more oil, but can it be extracted fast enough to keep up with demand? If more countries continue to build demand and move up the social ladder then will the reserves deplete faster and faster than supply? Regardless of whether we continue to find oil, we probably will run out of the ability to keep up with demand unless the market price reduces demand. Either way, use slows drastically.
The US is 4.25% of the world’s population, and we use 20% of the world’s current oil usage. China is 18.47% of the world’s population, and they use 14%. India is 17.7%, and they use 5%. Everyone else is lower on the list. If oil consumption increased to the level of the US for China and India then that alone would be crazy. Look how far and how fast China grew. Our lifestyle is not sustainable. Oil is just one thing of course. The world could never support our level of consumption for everyone at the given population that is begs the question what would the situation look like with another 2 or 5 or 10 billion people to feed or house or cars on the road or buildings to heat and cool, etc etc?
The poorest countries will grow the most, so Africa will take over eventually in population unless they come out of poverty and institute family planning, but that also means more consumption, typically. It is a catch 22. We are screwed either way.