Quote:
Originally Posted by soundman98
i thought we talked about this back in september... about 2 threads ago
|
New strains and mutations of SARS-Cov-2 are emerging all the time. There have literally been tens of thousands of mutations observed to date. This one in the U.K. is different.
It's evolution, but on a vastly greater and infinitely accelerated scale compared to humans. With people, a 'generation' might take 25 or 30 years for reproduction. With the coronavirus, a single viral particle infecting a human cell can produce hundreds to thousands of copies in just hours, multiplied by billions of viral particles infecting each person. This is reproduction many orders of magnitude faster than the human scale. Under these conditions, mutations appear much more quickly, and along with them, evolution also occurs much faster and changes that benefit the survival of the organism happen much more quickly.
Natural evolutionary processes select for variations that have survival advantages. Most mutations are random and irrelevant. Mutations that inhibit replication or survival are dead ends and burn themselves out. But mutations that in some way
enhance the organism's ability to survive are selected for. The mutation identified in the U.K. appears to be just such an evolutionarily advantageous mutation in that it is more easily spread. A viral strain that is spread more easily will preferentially infect more people than other strains, and will become dominant.
While it looks like 'good' news so far (if you can call it 'good' news) that this mutation does not appear to be more virulent than others, if it is more contagious it will infect more people, which will result in more people becoming ill, and more people dying.
Another maybe even scarier prospect for mutation is resistance. Resistance is one of the most frightening and serious things with any infectious pathogen, viral or bacterial. It's a worrisome problem, and signs have already been observed of resistance developing among SARS-CoV-2 mutations. As vaccines and treatments come into wider use, this creates greater selection pressures on the virus. Those viral particles that are susceptible to the vaccine or drug treatment don't survive, which leaves the ecological niche open for mutations that may be resistant. I worked in infectious diseases, and it was science-fiction level scary to see how fast resistance can develop.
Widespread resistance to the vaccine or antibody treatments has not yet developed, but it almost certainly will. It's not a question of if, but when. Resistance to antibodies has already been observed in the lab, and even in patients:
https://elifesciences.org/articles/61312
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....05.20241927v2
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...11.30.405472v1
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...11.04.355842v1
If widespread resistance develops to the vaccines, it would be a big heaping steaming bowl of not good. This is not just a theoretical possibility. The resistant mutations that have been observed show resistance to known antibodies - which is the approach of vaccines, to generate antibodies against the viral spike proteins.
The vaccines are extremely important. But vaccines alone might not be enough to save our collective species butts. It would be even better if humanity had the will, patience, understanding, and resolve to also apply eradication measures in addition to vaccines with the goal of not just containing the pandemic, but eliminating it.
It's harder to eradicate a viral disease. But it's possible, and was done with smallpox. I suspect we won't accomplish it with SARS-CoV-2, because of what it would require. People would have to be willing to go through hard containment, including a lockdown, for some time (maybe a few months?) along with other strict measures. As a country, we can't get people to universally lock down down for a few weeks or even for everyone to wear masks, which is why Tony Fauci said the coronavirus will never be eradicated.
The frustrating thing is, it could be done. It's just up to us to do it.