Quote:
Originally Posted by Dadhawk
Even if batteries lasted a million miles (which really just hyperbole for "until your tired of them" similar to a "lifetime warranty" that only applies to the original owner) do you really think people will buy one car and keep it their entire lives?
Heck, people trade cars well within their lifespans now (otherwise there wouldn't be a used car market). People that "trade up" after 3 years (or 3 months) will still do that. Most don't even keep them long enough to pay off the loan.
Also, unless they start making them out of Adamantium they will still rust in the rust up North and eaten by humidity in the South.
As long as there is personal ownership of cars, there will be a market. The size of the market may change but it's there.
|
Well, like I said, even if someone sells the car, it could be used for a million miles, and I don't see why the car wouldn't be desirable; there are people driving restored Mustangs from the 60's, or rebuilding AE86's. Imagine hitting up craigslist for a AE86 that is in perfect running condition that you could drive for another 20+ years. Maybe the owner never got into an accident, did a paint wrap and ceramic coat, so the vehicle looks new.
Most people who lease or trade up are either wanting the newest thing, or they are afraid of owning something out of warranty. It is both those reasons. Over time, electric vehicles and batteries will prove to be much more reliable, and like I said about TV's, cell phones, computers, people just won't need to trade up as much because the cars will last, the performance is good enough, the newest features aren't worth it. What exists on a new phone that makes a 4 year old phone obsolete? You already have a 65'' 4k TV worth under $1000. Do you need a 8k TV? Can our eyes see that from a normal viewing distance? If you had a self-driving car that does 0-60 in 4 seconds when you wanted to, do you need the new car with the VR OLED TV for the kids in the back? What more could be included in cars in 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years, etc?
The other question is CAN people trade up? My iPhone 6 and MacBook work perfect for me and for what I do, but they are too old to sell at a price that is reasonable for their utility, meaning, I value them more than the market values them. Back in the day, a six year old phone was ancient. Why keep it? When I bought my iPhone 6 new, a iPhone 3G was worth nothing and had no utility. Eventually, an iPhone 20 might last a person until an iPhone 40. The used market will be saturated with options making the price low. My phone is worth maybe $50 as a trade in. It might be slightly more on the open market. My computer is worth maybe $150-300 trade in. Maybe $300-400 on the open market.
Similarly, the used car market would grow and become saturated. I'm sure the number one concern with most people when buying a high mileage used car is the powertrain then the electrical controls. Condition is a secondary concern. In fact, a craiglist search for vehicles over 200k miles shows many that look great, but I'm sure looks aren't the number one concern of potential buyers. There would be plenty of used cars with many miles left on them in great condition. How is anyone going to trade up for a new car if there is a huge loss on the trade in?