Quote:
Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0
I'm sure it will have long term ramifications for many people and industries. I just think it is too soon to suggest the situation is worse than the 2008 recession. It definitely could be.
It is a boom for many people right now.
I suppose the industry could have sustained such a huge impact in sales that the disruption is more permanent, but the thought was that if sales dropped from 17 million to 11 million then rebounded temporarily to 23 million (in an ideal situation) then recovery would be swift. Even if supply couldn't meet demand, then new car prices would go up, as well as, used car prices. We will have to see how it goes.
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See that is just it. They are not going to be able to make the cars to make the jump. Even if everybody ramped up tomorrow (which they are not) and people had money to buy them (which they don't) there will still be a drop in production of about 20 million units this year. By the time they can run at anything even close to capacity the worldwide production will be lucky to hit 50% of last years. You are still focusing on sales which are meaningless at this point when the only cars to sell are already on the lots. The companies have to still be in business to make the parts to build the cars. Forget what you think you know about past situations the rules have changed and that is that.
The whole purpose of my original statement was that if you want a new Twin you better buy one soon because in all
probability what ones already exist are the end of them. I really hope that I am wrong but I highly doubt I am.