Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirty Harry
With the whole Coronavirus pandemic gripping the world. Does anyone else have that sinking feeling that the 2nd gen will be cancelled? Going by the Gloom and Doom news reports it looks like the economy is heading off a cliff. I hope I’m wrong but if there is a global recession and massive job losses, I can’t see a second gen coming along. The business case for a low volume sports car in such an environment would be a lot less viable.
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Perhaps, but I don't think so, for two big reasons:
First, this situation isn't going to last forever. We're going to reach a point where the virus has done what it's going to do and is just an accepted part of living on this planet, like the regular flu.
When that happens, I suspect the economy will come roaring back with a vengeance. It's going to be so sudden that it will make your head spin. There will be so much pent up demand and such a desire to celebrate that people will rapidly return to work and companies will be struggling to crank out product.
In fact, we may be better off than we were before the pandemic, because we haven't ever seen something like this that basically united all the smartest people in the world on a single problem. Not even WWII was this focused. Not even the Manhattan Project was this widespread.
There are suggestions that the field of virology will be changed forever, with hints that some of the vaccine development processes being investigated may provide solutions not only for other viruses but also other types of diseases altogether.
The mobilization to manufacture masks, PPE, respirators and other medical equipment is already opening up new avenues with respect to manufacturing, especially with respect to 3D printing. There are things we knew we could do, but hadn't yet had an economic reason to try. There are things we didn't know we could do until someone asked the question. We're going to learn a lot.
It's going to increase our national productivity (the amount produced per capita) as telework becomes more mainstream. Increased productivity
always results in better quality of life for the society as a whole.
It's going to change education forever. Many, many people are already questioning why they're paying so much for college when they're learning just as much through online classes. Taxpayers will start to question why they're paying for public school facilities when we see that the kids can learn remotely. There are a lot of school board members sweating bullets right now about keeping their seats in the next election.
It's going to destroy job-killing bureaucracy. As regulations are lifted during the emergency and we see that we're still safe, we're going to collectively question why they were there in the first place and resist having them reinstated. It may even shrink government in the process. People are going to seriously question why all drugs can't be approved as fast as the ones being reviewed now and why doctors can't always practice across state borders. "Well, the regulations blah blah blah" is not going to be good enough any more.
Further, not all people are going to lose their jobs. There are many of us who are still drawing the same paycheck but spending very little money right now. When the economy comes roaring back, we're going to have money to put into it, combined with an urge to celebrate.
And a lot of us will say fuck it, life's short, I'm buying a sports car. Somebody better be making some for us to buy.
Second, any manufacturer that eliminates its most imaginative or exciting products during this emergency or afterward will pay a huge price for it in sales of the rest of their product lines.
Suppose I'm wrong, and the economy doesn't come roaring back but instead circles the toilet. People will still be looking for things to lift their spirits. That's not the time you kill off your halo product. That's when you want it, even if it's losing money, to pull people into your stores.
If Toyota were to dump their exciting projects in favor of cheap and boring, their sales would slump. Those of us who don't lose our jobs are not going to want depressing products. Those in dire situations are not going to buy new cars anyway.
You might say, but Shaky, Shaky, Shaky... If half the population is hurting, you won't want to be the one buying the flashy, expensive sports car.
To that I say, exactly! I'll buy another BRZ, something fun and uplifting that
isn't expensive. The 86 is perfectly positioned to bridge that gap.
Suppose I'm right instead and the economy blasts off. Well, that's self-explanatory.
Either way, boring and depressing will be the wrong answer.