Quote:
Originally Posted by Fishbed77
THISx1000.
It might be a little bit more than 10 years, but the day is coming.
When autonomous automobiles begin to saturate the market and prove to be far safer (which they will), insurance premiums on manually-piloted automobiles will rise to the point to which they exist solely as playthings for the wealthy.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KalbiCool88
It will be awhile before cars or transportation in general be fully autonomous. I'm not worried of autonomous vehicles taking over in my lifetime anyway.
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It will happen in stages.
Stage 1: Some autonomous vehicles entering general traffic. This is happening now.
Stage 2: Autonomous vehicles will be preferred by governments and a majority of buyers. "Manuals" will be quaint, driven by the poor and the eccentric.
Stage 3: Autonomous vehicles will be the vast majority on the roads, and new advantages will emerge. They will be networking and form close-gap, high speed road-trains and utilize the roads much more efficiently.
"Manuals" will be seen as disruptive and dangerous relics. Like a horse-drawn carriage on the freeway today.
Stage 4: Manually operated vehicles forbidden on public roads in industrialized countries. Motoring clubs with private tracks where people go to play with their gasoline fuelled antiquities.
When? Long before we run out of oil, I'm quite sure.
A decade of transition between each stage sounds reasonable to me.
So I guess my prediction is full dystopia on the roads by the year 2047.
If I live that long I'll be an old man, telling the story of the time I rear-ended a taxi because the driver had the insane notion of stopping at a red light; to kids who will not believe me nor understand why it's funny.
And maybe the story really isn't that funny and maybe it will be a better, safer world.
