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Rambling inbound based of martinus's comment, I'm not cruel enough to ping him about it...
Alonso would not have had a better chance at a title sitting in a Mclaren seat for the past 7 years with the exception of '08. I could see him going back though I don't think it would be the smartest move, I can't see him partnering with Button so he'd be partnering with a rookie using an untested engine package from Honda who's most recent stint in F1 was less than stellar...
Edit: I could see Alonso in a Mclaren for 2016 assuming the Honda can challenge and come out on top of the Merc and Ferrari has another lackluster year. Unless Mclaren have an ace in their back pocket I think Button will sign another 1 year deal to bring Magnusson up to speed and develop the Honda, they have a good relationship already. After that my money is on an attempt at Bottas or Hulk to partner Magnusson (assuming he is at least as fast as Button for the next year) with an outside chance at Grosjean, and all of those guys before Alonso gets considered.
I think the gap between Merc and everybody else will shrink dramatically next year, most teams have probably already given up on this years package and out of the current top six teams (Williams, RB, Ferrari, FI, Mc) I'd put money on RB or Ferrari to bring it together.
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