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Welp, as I suspected, the body shop the dealer sent my car to says the paint crack was caused by an impact of some sort. It was clear over the phone that they are no longer considering this a warranty repair. Since I'm confident I didn't hit that mudflap against anything, and there's no damage whatsoever to the outside of that mudflap, I'm going to take this up with Scion corporate once I get a case number out of the dealer.
So besides an "impact" to the mudflap from the outside cracking the paint, what are some other potential causes? Incorrect installation causing the flap to rub against the car? Damage during installation and then covered up? None of my other flaps had rusting under them.
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