Long Term FR-S
 

Reading the Car & Driver article that predicts Scion brand will be dropped by Toyota, basically saying the FR-S was a "swan song" for the brand , that got me thinking.

First of all this is a very low volume car for a "Toyota", only selling 10k units this year. The Miatas first year was over 100,000 units, then its volume dropped fast. The S2k didn't have enough volume to keep it profitable.

The FR-S/BRZ have a completely unique chassis and share very little parts with any high volume car.

I think long term ownership of this car could be much more like a RX-7 than a Miata. Scarce expensive parts.

An acquaintance once owned a 70's Subaru with 400k miles on the engine. A boxer engine is supposed to very long lasting due to the inherent balance, but these new engines have so much technology with the DI that the long term maintenance may prove very expensive.

I don't buy new cars very often, my first was a Yaris during cash for clunkers, several documented cases of these cars lasting a half a million miles.

Since I bought my FR-S I've put 5k miles on it, CEL light the whole time. Local dealership just keep resetting the CEL, they are so stupid they list the car as a 2013 Scion Supra ! I'm looking at buying a EcuTek just so I can flash the latest firmware, don't have time to deal with the idiots at the stealership.

Driving this car is so fun, it gets good gas milage, so I don't treat it like a rare classic, I drive it all the time and am racking up a lot of miles. But if these are going to be a low volume expensive to maintain vehicle, I might switch back to the Yaris for my DD.

Look at the MR-S owners, the issues that plagues them were a delicate motor and clogged cats, barely good for 100k miles in most cases. What saved them was an easy swap to a common motor from the Celica. But this is a RWD not MR, I really doubt there will be any motor swapping from a high volume car for these. Even motors from Subaru AWD's won't mate to this tranny.

You have to wonder if this is going to be one of those 200k+ trouble free miles Toyotas or a Scion/Subaru bastard stepchild with the same maintenance/reliability issues that plague European cars?

Only time will tell.

Only time will tell how it holds up in the long run...
But at its low price point.. Most will consider this a "disposable"
Car to be used everyday and not worry about the long term...

That's why you lease for 3 years, 36,000 miles and let it be someone else's problem later on. One thing this car has going for it is a large and fast-growing aftermarket, which means that even if something breaks and OE parts are ridiculous, there should be a decent aftermarket solution available to you.

Interesting post, but to post up some comparative numbers:

- Mazda sold 9,477 FD RX-7's in the first year it was released.
- Mazda sold 16,897 NC Miatas in the first full calendar year (CY2006).
- Honda sold 6,797 S2000's in the first full calendar year (CY2000).

In comparison:
- Scion is on pace to sell 21,000 FR-S's in the first full year of sales.
- Subaru is on pace to sell 7,000 BRZ's.
- If you combine the two, that's 28,000 cars sold in the first full year.

source: http://www.ft86club.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10766

That's nearly 3x the number of RX-7's and 4x the number of S2000's. It's also 11k more units sold than the NC Miata.

Time will tell whether these cars maintain their popularity, but the sales numbers so far have been very promising. Also explains why the aftermarket has been so quick to support these cars.

How many Mustangs get sold each year?

Mustang US sales were off the chart in the year it was re-designed (2005) - 161,000 units sold.

Before we start getting worried about speculation, remember that the cars are built by Subaru. If the BRZ continues to be made by Subaru, FR-S owners will at least have access to major parts for fixes.

I never lease as (from my experiences) you always come out on the loosing end.
If you finance correctly you can come out ahead every single time even if you trade it in every 2 years (I do this for my wife all the time).

Example: I just traded in my wifes 2011 Prius (we owned for exactly 2 years and 2 weeks) with 51K miles and was able to get $550 over the payoff on it (it was financed @60mo 2%interest and only put TTL down). Just to make sure I am not getting my payoff absorbed through my new cars purchase price I never talk or show a trade until I get a firm agreed price on the new vehicle I am purchasing.

I bought this car with the plan to own it for a very long time...with no concern of what the happens to the make/model down the road in the way OP was saying. Its mine, I like it, I will take care of it, and fix things that need fixing as they come up. In the mean time Im gunna drive the piss out of the car as it was meant.

My take on this is that Scion as a brand is not doing well in North America. This may affect the future of the FR-S, which is under the Scion brand. If Scion goes away I would speculate Toyota will simply release GT86 in NA instead. They wouldn't be so stupid as throw the FR-S away just yet considering the market demand.

That's the same thing I was thinking. Hell, I thought they should've done this from the start.

The price point could've been higher too, to match the BRZ. This would allow for better trim, HIDs, etc. The 10 Series FR-S is what the FR-S should've been like (minus the glowing emblems and solar powered shift knob, lol).

I don't think Scion is going away any time soon. In fact, the FR-S will boost Scion sales. Sales have been consistent over the past few years, which is not necessarily bad... but it's not increasing either.

The worst-case scenario is that sales of the BRZ/FRS will be halted in the US but the 86 will continue to be sold for a few years after overseas. (just like the SW20 MR-2).

Still, I don't think that will be the case with the twins. The reason I say so is because the MR-2, while it was a FANTASTIC car (I owned two of them), it was very expensive compared to many other cars in the states and didn't sell well. The BRZ/FRS is priced VERY well and dealerships are struggling to keep them in stock.

Nobody can predict the future though. Times, and tastes, change.

Scott

Do you have a link to the Car and Driver article saying Scion is going away?

Would wait an extra year to get a Toyota-branded GT86...

PS I do not think they will dump Scion but I would be glad to see the brand go the way of Plymouth and Pontiac.

Here is some info I just found:

Mazda Miata
2006 (Debut NC model) - 16,900 units USA
1989 (debut year) - 23,050 units USA
1990 – 35,950 peak year units USA
2005 - 9,800 units USA
2012 – 6,000 units USA

Honda S2000
1999 – 3,400 units USA
2002 – 9,700 peak year units USA
2009 – 800 last and lowest production year units USA

Scion FRS in its first 11 months sold
16,050 units USA (10k allocated for USA in 2012, an additional 20k are being produced for 2013)

Toyota 86 in its first 11 months sold (non-usa)
7,000 which is nearly 6x’s the original target =-O (low expectations)

Subaru BRZ in its first 11 months sold
5,900 units USA

I don't want that crap, incredibly glad it's a Scion.

Even if Scion tanks they can just keep selling it as a Toyota no big deal. Akio Toyoda is placing a lot of emphasis on making a car "fun", one market brand tanking does not mean they will kill the car.

Also means the Scion brand may become a bit more valuable than anticipated, also leasing is dumb, why would you want to get rid of this car? If the OEM has screwed something up replacements aren't that hard to come by, it's a car not a cell phone.

I couldn't agree more.:happy0180:

Scott

I would've had a harder time deciding on which car to get if the 10 Series came out last year... some of us actually like the extra.

Its all about the numbers.

Example:
A $50,000 car (plus tax and fees) would cost approx. $1000/month for 5 years.

The same car leased would likely be less than half that for the first 2 or 3 years. And then you get another new one, indefinitely if that is what you want!
The less millage per year you drive the more of an advantage Leasing is.

For ANYONE that drives over 15000 miles per year, leasing is not financially positive or even possible.

ALSO the type of car, its residual value will also determine lease value. Expensive cars (MB's, BMW's, Porsche, Audi and so on) lease well.

2013 335i xDrive Coupe FULLY LOADED (top of the line)
Lease with NO money down ($0 at signing) is about $450/month for 3 years.
BUY with NO money down ($0 at signing) is about $1000/month for 5 years. Sure you own it BUT its value is relatively low and warrantee is over so maintenance expenses start to apply.

You're right, when you change cars like purses it makes sense to not purchase. It's a mindset that doesn't make sense to me, cars are a personal thing that you develop a connection with.

But then again I guess the guy who's prepping to do his first timing chain change on his secondary vehicle isn't representative of the consumer base as a whole.
:bonk:

Edit: I also think that getting any warranty past the base factory one is a waste of money. Anything that breaks out of the factory warranty wouldn't be covered anyway and if it's a recurring problem obviously the OEM doesn't care and you'll have to go aftermarket anyway. I plan on keeping this car as long as it makes sense, hopefully I won't have to give it up until my hips give out.

I thought I read something a while back that said they expect to be producing this car for a decade

I would add one thing to this...

If you plan on modding your car... don't lease. This comes from experience with a 1997 Toyota Tacoma. They didn't appreciate me putting on a 1.5" lift and BFG TA's on it!

Scott

Scion and particularly the FR-S platform look to have a bright future. As DarkSunrise showed, sales are above plan. This is no boutique MR2 Spyder. It's already known that the series will be expanded to include a cabriolet with rumors of a sedan and station wagon circulating.

It's also in Toyota's political interest to support Subaru and US production. Before Toyota's cash, facilities and engineering injection, Subaru was having substantial problems and was even losing dealer representation in important markets. Toyota, already in political cross-hairs, didn't want the rep of steamrolling competitors out of existence so the deal became a win-win. Factor Subaru Indiana production remaining open and expanding, and Toyota strengthens it's US presence even more.

Scion is here to stay. It was created to capture Millenials into the Scion/Toyota/Lexus product cycle who might otherwise have gone elsewhere. It's working to plan and the FR-S is a big reason why.

Much easier and readily available than you would think. If you can get it between the fenders and under the hood without hitting the ground you can make it work somehow with enough tape and rubber bands. It's a car not the space shuttle, people just want a plug and play kit for everything. If you really like a design you can make something work. Go to a budget drag strip and see the creative things people build on a budget. I've seen +500hp rotary engines in VW beetles, small block datsun pickups....

I was given the choice between a couple of different new Porsches and my FR-S. I went with the FR-S because I really liked the way it looks and drives all while not looking too pretentious. I also keep cars for decades so longevity is important. The FR-s will be in my collection (and used regularly) for a long time to come. If it needs a motor I'll figure out how to put something else in there. I'm thinking the 1GR-FE with a Supercharger would be fun (350hp with 0 maintenance) , or a 4th generation 3Sgte mated to a rav4 transmission (yes you can do it) would fit and have a potential +100k miles of 250hp with almost 0 turbo lag. :burnrubber:
Plus limited production runs from high productions companies like Toyota / Subaru make for cool rare pieces. How many Celica all-tracs have you seen? Remember the Celica-Supra? the one year they were one car in the same not a Celica OR a supra. Find one in good condition and be ready to pay out the nose for it. I'd prefer the GT-86 to be a limited production car. I think they would have sold the same number of units or at least close even if the price was higher. Some people that have them would have still bought them, myself included. Those that could no longer afford it would have bought a civic or TC and those that snubbed the Scion badge would have bought it with a Toyota or Lexus badge at the higher price. Look how many people swap the badges from scion to Toyota and pay $600 or more just to remove the scion emblem from the airbag. that's my $.02 and I'm bored waiting on this conference call so you all get to read my ramblings.

Can we get numbers on tC sales before/after the launch?

eh I think that if the Scion brand drops off that the car will be badged as a Toyota and continue pushing on. I can't see them closing a new assembly production that they just opened/started but I can see them keeping it open and rebadging. I think Toyota has too much invested in this project to just toss it out, even if they inevitably toss out the Scion brand. Subaru has a good record of producing parts long-term, I've never heard anyone complain about getting parts for an XT.

Well that is how long I plan to keep it before it becoumes a track queen. :w00t:

From what I've heard, the FR-S was supposed to "save" scion. So far it has, I also heard that Toyota will probably Upscale scion and make most of there models into some sort of FR-S line up. I don't have the articles anymore, but this is what i have heard. Makes sense as they are supposedly making a 150HP car and a new high end car with BMW also. I also heard that the FR-S is the basically going to be the mid model car, that there is supposed to be at least 1 car below it and 1 car above it, however this was before i even heard about the convertible and the upscaling of scion.

When I buy a car new I intend to maintain and keep it forever, this car is very special there really won't be any 2700lb RW coupes with a 6 speed manual and torsen LSD made ever again for $400/mo payment. A lot of things went just right for a car like this to become a reality (stars aligned, luck, fate.). I work in the industry (even worked briefly at the Subaru plant in IN over 20 years ago when they were making Honda's alongside Suzuki's and Subarus.)

Things happen by large socio-political moves in this industry, not necessarily business needs or sense. I remember working at he Shreveport GM S10 Truck assembly plant in the 90s the size of a small city, thinking the plant would be there forever, now its is shut down and neither GM, Doge, Ford make a small pickup.

Luckly now I work at Americas last true road vehicle manufacturer (hint 2-wheels:)

I seriously doubt that Toyota would continue making such a low volume vehicle should the Subaru venture sour or the Scion brand fails. I could easily imagine the Japanese Subaru plant being needed for a hotter selling model. Moving to a new assembly plant rarely happens and usually means the EOL.

But I guess the first years sales are promising. The spec's of this car on paper are almost identical to the S14 Sylvia which didn't last long.

The biggest thing going for it is the new Chassis, the capital invested is sizeable for a ground up platform, both R&D and tooling. I hope the car is a continued success, I really think the rwd coupe vs convertible roadster (Miata/S2k) may keep it alive if people see the engineering that went into this car vs a Mustage or Genesis.

I just don't want to be stuck with a rare RX-7 type Japanese car that Subaru and Toyota forget about.

Probably my local dealer has just rubbed me the wrong way, listing my warranty claim as a Supra and not knowledgeable enough to get/swap the ECU. I'm ordering the EcuTek to do the flash myself, I hate fighting with a dealer who has no understanding of the greatness this car has.

To be honest there isn't much real aftermarket support for this engine outside bolt on FI, real NA performance would be a 9k redline cam/valvetrain, its amazing all these headers and CAI's without any headwork, pretty silly.


I will be first in line to get the Innovative twin screw SC, worrying aboug the warranty seems not worth the hassle anyway.

Love driving this thing, thanks for the encouragement.

I want to put speaker pads on my door panel. Is the speaker grill separate from the factory plastic pad? Or do I have to buy a grill separate for padded doorpad? (Scion FRS)

We can only hope, they did decide to sell the GT86 as a Scion in the first place, after all. They could make the mistake and throw out the car for NA and keep selling it in other markets with us getting nothing further. Which would suck, immensely.

Scion's outlook has been dim for a long while. Those expanded versions of the FR-S are "ideas" meaning they may not come to light. The convertible may not even be sold in our market. There was a post quoting Scion saying it doesn't fit because of their mono-spec setup and the price might rise above Scion's usual range, which the FR-S is already stretching.

The thing about Scion is it hasn't been doing well at capturing it's target audience. Their sales have been dwindling or holding, not improving. The FR-S is doing well but it was intended for Toyota(and Subaru). That aside, there are not many cars of that type on the market right now. So right now all those fans are flocking to the only option, if Nissan brought out a Silva, Chevy goes ahead with it's Code 130 R, Mazda brings back the RX-#, etc., then those fans will go back to their respective brands, especially if they're a better offering. Leaving Scion with what it originally had, dwindling sales. The Toyota fans, such as myself, are either giving in like the other brand fans or not buying and waiting for a Toyota offering. The FR-S may be a crutch, holding up Scion, but how long will it last? The rest of Scion's line up isn't holding itself, that's why the FR-S was given to Scion. It's a sinking ship, the FR-S is the bucket trying to bail the water out but they're taking on too much water for it to help.

They wouldn't be closing production, all the cars are made at the same plant, for all markets, they'd simply reallocate the Scion production numbers to other markets. They could very well stop production for NA all together. I'd hope they'd swap it over to Toyota but who knows.

How has it saved Scion? It's holding it up a little bit longer but it doesn't seem to be boosting sales of other Scion vehicles. One car, that wasn't intended to be a Scion, can't save the brand. It has to generate interest in the rest of the line up, but I haven't seen anything saying it has.

The upscaling is an idea they have, not something they've committed to. They already admitted it'd take Scion away from what it's supposed to be. They also said Scion might not get the convertible because of Scion's mono-spec and the price might go higher than the FR-S' already stretched, for Scion, price tag.

I'm thinking along the same lines. Here's the article I've read.

http://www.4wheelsnews.com/toyota-mu...-luxury-brand/

Makes sense, I just don't see toyota letting scion go anywhere because they do actually get competition with other cars. thx for the article. :thanks:

How has it saved Scion? It's holding it up a little bit longer but it doesn't seem to be boosting sales of other Scion vehicles. One car, that wasn't intended to be a Scion, can't save the brand. It has to generate interest in the rest of the line up, but I haven't seen anything saying it has.

The upscaling is an idea they have, not something they've committed to. They already admitted it'd take Scion away from what it's supposed to be. They also said Scion might not get the convertible because of Scion's mono-spec and the price might go higher than the FR-S' already stretched, for Scion, price tag.[/QUOTE]

It has helped, guess i used the wrong word. I really can't see Toyota just dropping scion and letting the brand disappear. The only cars scion really sells is the FR-S and the TC, the other cars don't sell hardly at all because no one really likes them, and they aren't that great compared to other cars in there class. I think they just need a new lineup and they may actually do a lot better. We'll c what happens lol :popcorn:.

That's what a lot of people thought about Pontiac and I'm sure Saturn too. Look what GM has done to them, Saturn is gone and Pontiac is shut down until they think they can bring it back, if at all. Scion is looking to go the same way. I'm pretty sure Pontiac did better than Scion has too.

I think Scion needs to lower prices instead of upping them. Sure the FR-S is worth the money, but all the other cars need to be priced lower. Their brand image is to cater to young high school and college kids looking to buy a "cheap" new car. When Scion first came out, I remember everyone had a tC, xB and some even got the xA.

I think they should move the FR-S and the tC over to Toyota so they can make more of a profit off them and bring in lower priced cars to keep sales going. But what do I know? I'm not CEO :sigh:

According to March 2013 YTD reports, total Scion retail sales of 16,377 represents a 9.4% improvement over 2012, more of an increase than total Toyota car gain of 4.3% over the same time.

4,640 of those Scion retail sales were FR-S.

It's true that the other Scion series sales velocity is far off 2012 rates, especially iQ that was down 59.5% and tC off 19.9%, partly due to buildout and low inventory of the last gen tC in March.

Scion is a relatively small % of total Toyota car division sales, but it's an important part not only for image but CAFE. Most Scion ratings help boost total car averages to offset the thirsty Avalons that outsell all Scions combined.

The FR-S launch and tC redesign is just the beginning. Given Toyota's rapid series refresh rate (excepting Corolla that will be all new later this year), I imagine all Scions will be completely new or substantially refreshed within the next two years.

Then we have the politics of the Japanese workforce to consider. They need something to build, and it's Toyota's social responsibility to the homeland to do their part.

High Five man!

I love my car to bits, this has been such an awesome year. I still get excited to get in it to go home.

With that said, I am happy I leased it for 3.

I get to get a new car in 24 months.

That's just it though, they've done a refresh of the tc once before and it hasn't helped. They'll do it again and have a little bump in sales, maybe, of repeat tc people, if they haven't gone to the FR-S or something else. Their refresh rate isn't something I'd call "rapid" either. I'd say average at best. What Chevy did with the all new 2013 Malibu, refreshed it for 2014 due to the negative response of the 2013, that was rapid.

As for the politics of the Japanese workforce, they'll still be building for other markets. They need only reallocate production to another market. There is also the suspected folding of Scion back into Toyota, again, problem solved. Cut the dead weight, keep what is working alive with a different badge, add trim levels to make up for lost production of cut models, continue on.

Great post but I don't think they'll screw over the NA market just because of a badge and some foolish attempt at a commitment/consistency.

If Scion folded next week my money says you'd be able to buy a GT86 before summer was out, with the same specs as the FRS and with a $3k market adjustment of course. All their models would be absorbed and sold as the Toyotas they're sold as elsewhere.

:bonk:

We only get the "short" end of the stick when the laws are different than other countries; i.e. diesels and small pickup trucks.