| Irace86.2.0 |
08-30-2022 07:59 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by chipmunk
(Post 3544432)
I'm not wasting your time. I'm not here to convince you of anything. I have been defending my position regardless of whatever you believe, because you're tagging me and critiquing my posts.
Why is the present CO2 not causing the same temp rise as in the past, despite the depletion of O3 and elevated Methane levels?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chipmunk
(Post 3544433)
Your own link that says causation is true in the last 150+ years is the same one that says it's opposite overall. Somehow the temperature causes CO2 increase in the 100s of 1000s of years, but yet it contradicts itself within the last 150+?? Something is off - either the test methodology, or inferences.
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The model was predictive with a high confidence interval of predicting the past and the future, meaning, the pattern of changes seen then was indicative of warming causing a CO2 rise causing more warming, and then pattern today shows a CO2 rise causing a warming. Someday that may cause more rise in CO2 like the past, which may cause more warming, which is one reason scientists worry about a runaway greenhouse effect in the long term, but anthropomorphic CO2 is the driving force now, and we know that. Here is the breakdown:
https://www.newswise.com/factcheck/r...icle_id=772662
The paper I cited goes through the challenge of making a causal argument, which is why they said:
Quote:
he more challenging problem is to ‘attribute’ this detected climate change to the most likely external causes within some defined level of confidence. As already noted in the Third Assessment Report11, unequivocal attribution would require controlled experimentation with the climate system. Since that is not possible, in practice attribution of anthropogenic climate change is understood to mean demonstration that a detected change is ‘consistent with the estimated responses to the given combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing’ and ‘not consistent with alternative, physically plausible explanations of recent climate change that exclude important elements of the given combination of forcings12. Therefore attribution analysis is mainly performed through the application of Global Circulation Models that allow testing for causal relationships between anthropogenic forcing, natural variability and temperature evolutions.
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They go onto describe how their model is used to create correlation to the highest degree to estimate causation. Their model is predictive of the past and present, while demonstrating the relationship of the past and present. It is like there is a crime scene, and their model for interpreting data can determine if there was a theft, rape or murder. The data that feeds the past shows a causal relationship of temperature causing CO2 rise, but the model can't explain the rise in temperature now to be attributed to anything else other than anthropomorphic CO2 rise. It is pretty simple.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4761980/
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