Quote:
Originally Posted by ZDan
(Post 3533781)
I fully agree with moving from fossil fuels to renewables for transportation sector.
But IMO a HUGE thing we could do, which would make most people's live MUCH betterin the US, is to greatly incentivize employers to allow work-from-home, move to a 4- or even 3-day work week, and also work to ensure that people can afford to LIVE near where they WORK. Millions of people commuting long distances to work 5 days a week is a major source of CO2 emissions, particularly given that most of them are in gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs that should NOT be getting a break on CAFE fuel economy requirements...
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Agreed with this wholeheartedly - lifestyle changes such as WFH and proximity have cut my driving down by over 50% compared to before pandemic, and I'm happy for that. Now we need to build on that momentum by implementing excellent, European-esque public transportation and road/street infrastructure in major metro areas to encourage transportation by train/bike!
Another interesting anecdote is that as new EVs have gotten simultaneously more capable and affordable, more and more people have been ditching ICE entirely. People are realizing (rightfully so) that gas-powered cars are not a value-add to their lifestyles in any way. Range anxiety is less of an issue since most EVs can go over 200 miles in a single charge - even if you're scum-baggin it on on-ramps and off-ramps. Variety has also exploded - nearly every large automaker now offers at least one EV (although EV sedans and wagons would be VERY welcome (lookin at you, Volvo/Polestar!)). And infrastructure improvements are increasing the convenience of and reducing the price of charging. Out here in CA, people are waiting in line for months to get solar - and they reap the benefits of never needing to pay for fuel (in addition to slicing their electricity bill nearly to zero).
An added benefit of that transition in the new-car market is going to be a mirror transition in the used-car market, which should be starting about now actually (given when the Tesla Model 3 debuted).
I think there will always remain a nominal demand for gasoline for ICE-powered cars. However, as the technology and infrastructure around EVs burgeons at such a quick rate, I can't help but think that by 2035 no normal person is going to think twice about buying an EV, even if the option for an ICE car exits. And by 2050, after the last normal ICE cars have aged out of operation, the majority of gas demand/ICE car usage will be from enthusiasts like us, who will likely drive our ICE cars fewer than 5,000 miles per year since we'll all have EV dailies anyways. So while I agree with the ban on ICE cars after 2035, I think by that point it may actually be redundant.
Last point, to alleviate any doom/gloom: I'm also waiting patiently for one of these more enthusiast-minded automakers to realize there is nothing stopping them from throwing an electric motor in front of a manual transmission in an existing chassis (86, Miata, Z, etc.). The power:powertrain weight ratio that can be achieved by an electric motor is objectively better than any ICE motor. Additionally, advancements in battery technology are rapidly improving weight, price, environmental impact, charging time, and range (Toyota/Panasonic solid-state batteries, for example). All of this makes a very promising case for EV sports cars - and once companies realize they can corner the enthusiast market in a forward-looking way by just sacrificing some efficiency and adding a manual transmission, it should be a no-brainer to do just that. If they released an EV 86/BRZ with a mechanical clutch and shifter, I'd be first in line to get one.