| Irace86.2.0 |
09-13-2023 12:52 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by alex87f
(Post 3592325)
Gotta love the contradiction:
1. We could largely reduce CO2 emissions by replacing old cars with modern mild hybrids instead of EVs
2. On the other hand, we're actively pushing the sale of Jeeps and Rams across the globe. I doubt those emit less CO2 than a 20 years old Camry..
Oh and FCA "absorbs the 40% extra cost of EVs because they can't be passed on to the customer"? I didn't know they were a charity :D. And that basically implies they can take a strong hit to their margins and still turn a profit, i.e. ICE buyers are getting trounced :)
|
The price is higher because they want to recoup their investments immediately, or they don't have economy of scale to produce EVs as cheap as other manufacturers, which is unfortunate for them. They should work on scaling things and taking advantage of the tax incentives, grants and other programs available. Most likely they are, so the question is, is it 40% despite those programs, or is it 40% with those programs. Frankly, I don't by it unless they are severely behind the curve, which is possible.
Wright's Law states that for every doubling of production there will be a subsequent drop in price of 20%, but the range can be 10-25% across most industries with 15% being more common for the automotive industry ( Citation). There was about 78 million vehicles made worldwide last year with 14% or 10 million EVs sold. Not bad, but if that double to 20 million then 15% cheaper, and if it doubles to 40 million then 15% cheaper, and if it doubles to 80 million then 15% cheaper. If a car cost $50k now then it will go to $42.5k, then $36k, and finally to $31k, under the scenario above, very roughly.
Quote:
Gartner analysts expect that by 2027, the average price of a BEV will reach parity with ICE vehicles of similar size and configuration, which will accelerate the global adoption of EVs (Citation).
|
Quote:
An oft cited benchmark for when EVs hit price parity with conventional vehicles is $100 per kWh. Based on the updated estimates for the learning rate for batteries from this year’s survey, BNEF predicts that average pack prices should fall below that threshold by 2026. This is two years later than previously expected (Citation).
|
Quote:
In terms of pricing, CATL's first-generation sodium-ion cells cost about $77 per kWh. For years, experts believed that a battery price under $100/kWh allows EVs to achieve price parity with combustion vehicles. The second generation has the potential to drop the price to $40 per kWh, making electric cars a no-brainer (Citation).
|
BYD's batteries are already cheaper than $100/kWh, and part of that is because they have a huge market share, so they are playing the efficiency game with large economies of scale to their advantage. Not everyone is at that level or even close yet.
https://img.cnevpost.com/2023/09/111...1110174523.jpg |
