I predict vehicles of SAE levels 3 and 4 will never be produced en masse. It would require a machine to make an analog determination of when it is safe to drive. If you have a system that can do that with any measure of confidence, you might as well make the jump to level 5. So my guess is we are going to be stuck at level 2 for a while.

Bet it isn't as long as you think!
I give it under 10 years. I may even live long enough to see it.

ever notice that most significant automotive developments have been claimed to always be 2 years into the future at any given moment?

I find this a little interesting but not so much I have gone looking for information; just pop science articles I see at tech sites I visit.

First point. Machine learning/A.I. is biased/prejudiced. For example, facial recognition software gives undue bias towards some ethnic groups/people of colour when searching for possible criminal suspects.
Here is one random article.
Here is another.

Second point. I can't remember the context for this, I can't remember what field of interest it related to but the article said something along the lines of the programmers who wrote the AI code don't know how the A.I. produced the results it did. That is, the AI did its own "thinking" that was beyond analysis.

Until then, here's the bold new grille.

Right before it runs you over. As American philosopher Mike Tyson said, "Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth".

I agree, some manufacturers could implement Level 5 in that time frame, but will they? Until the liability issue is either solved, capped, or more likely waived by government edict, fully autonomous may not deploy in the U.S.

Sorry. I wasn't clear in which part of his statement I was addressing. It was the 3 and 4 that you will see in volume in the next 10 years. The 5 will indeed take a bit longer but not much.

I'm not buying one until I can sit in the back and do something else and it isn't on my insurance. I don't even want to own it really just call it from Uber. Otherwise I'm just going drive it and enjoy driving.

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This will be the majority someday.

Nothing wrong with getting those who can't or don't want to drive off the road.

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Exactly! They will drag the rest of us along eventually but we can go down kicking and screaming.


You can take my steering wheel from my cold, dead hands!

Actually I'm not even going to let them do that. I'm going to insist I be buried/cremated with the steering wheel from whatever car I own at the time. I'm taking it with me.

Jeez, it's "your" type pushing up prices of hard to source parts when restoring to exacting standards expected by our "expert" concourse judges... I think someone should get you a pastiche of your steering wheel, you won't know!! I am sure of that!!