GT86 Collectors Car?
 

I am curious as to whether or not the GT86 will hold its value as the years go by. Could the GT86 possibly even be a collectors car in the future? I really would like to hear some peoples opinion/speculation on this.

If you like the car for the time that you owned it, then it was a good car.

I don't expect the car to become a collectors car or hold value any better than other cars of the same type. But this topic is complete speculation either way.

Just my opinion but it depends on the rarity and condition and it's influence on car culture.

Mustangs, Corvettes, Camaros and other muscle cars from the 60's are in such high demand these days because people in their 50's-70's want the car that they grew up with, either their dad had one or it was their first or second car they owned.

More than just the performance of it, they became legendary cars, the example for their genre of the muscle car, and muscle cars were a big hit back then.

You have to keep in mind what cars are here with us today to what will be around 30 years from now. Will the GT86 be a big get? Well it has a few things going for it. One, its a niche car, only 9700 BRZ's were made to US/Canada spec in 2013, and only 4500 in 2012.

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2012/05...s-figures.html

I have a 2013 BRZ, Limited, Automatic, in Galaxy Blue.

Do some math...

9700
1/2 were Limited trim (= 4850)
1/3 were Automatics (= 1616)
8% were Galaxy Blue (= 129)
Galaxy Blue was discontinued for BRZ after 2013.
I can't remember where I heard the stats for trim, trans, and color but that's what it was.

My car is in a group of only 129 examples for 2013, and were not made again (at least with that color). If I include the same math for the 2012 year, only 60 such cars were made. If you own a 2012 BRZ Limited Automatic in Galaxy Blue, you own a collector car. Do not sell it or trade it. In 20-30 years you will have an auction level car.

I don't intend on getting rid of my car, I will keep it as long as I can as a future investment, and see what happens. I'll store it away if I have to.

Back to what makes a car valuable in the future, another big consideration is rarity. If 30 years from now, a car that only had 60 produced in a year, and 129 the year after that, and were discontinued in that color after that, that means only 189 examples were EVER made. How many of them would be in a good enough condition to sell then? Maybe less than 50 of them? If you own one of them in pretty good condition by then, that's a rare car, and collectors buy that like crazy, regardless of what it was. You never hear of a rare Honda Civic. Why? Because Honda made millions of them since they started. The only rare one would be #00000000001, or a manufacturer special edition, limited runs like the Mugen RR, but even those aren't as rare because they were intentionally made rare by the manufacturer.

Unintentional rarity from limited manufacturing or discontinuing something makes a car so much more valuable because it wasn't intentionally made rare. Does that make sense?

I honestly believe that BRZ's and FRS's will be collector cars, depending on who the buyer is. Corvettes have sold a few million since they started? That means there's a few million prospective buyers of a rare Corvette, and they will clamor over each other to get it. The FRS/BRZ only has what, less than 100,000 for US spec made? Not many buyers.

If they keep making the BRZ for the next couple decades, then yes there will be enough buyers to increase the value.

Non-molested mostly-stock examples will be in demand. It's already "collectable" to some, and ten years from now after the next eight years of insane Democrats running the show it WILL be a classic.

Part of it will also really depend on popular culture. This is not something any of us would like to admit, but this does have a huge influence on the prestige certain vehicles receive.

This is something I think about but don't worry about. The production numbers are pretty high for it to be considered a collector's car, but it would certainly be rare to find a low-mileage example in 15-20 years. The question is, would it be desirable?

For instance, let's look at a Honda S2000...it would be pretty cool & rare to find a bone stock 2000 S2000 with less than 30,000 miles. But how many people would actually consider buying it?

But let's say a bone stock AE86 or Corolla GT-S pops up in an estate auction. The car only had one owner, has about 36,540 miles on it, and was never driven in the rain and is manual. Well this is going to get some decent attention from well-off JDM lovers, and if the right buyer buys it, they'll probably keep it in a garage and not drive it, AKA collect it.

Basically, the probability of the 2nd scenario is almost unheard of compared to the first one. Sure it may not go for a 1,000,000 bucks, but I'd bet an AE86 like that would go for 30,000-40,000 optimistically. We wouldn't know for sure, because it just doesn't happen--and that's what makes it a collector's car...being able to have this car, that other people WANT, and by having it, you reduce other people's chances of also having one, significantly.

So, I think that will determine if the 86/FR-S/BRZ will have collector car status. If the world is deprived of a low-mileage bone stock FR-S in the same way the AE86 is, then it will be a collector's car. Right now, it doesn't seem like it. And it might take a long time.

Clean 2nd-gen MR2's, turbo or N/A for example, are pretty rare, but I'd argue they do not have "collector's cars" status, and their production numbers were less than even just the FR-S alone. (However, an MR2 Turbo hardtop may be a different story because they were produced in such little numbers.)

No way.

Same question was asked when the Miata was new (25 years ago) and you can buy beautiful examples of those for less than $10k.

You also need look no further than the MGB to see where mass produced specialty cars do not become valuable collector vehicles even after 50 years.

That said, some people are going to buy and baby these cars like they were made of crystal. These will be the cars you want to buy for your enjoyment 25 years from now when your kids are grown up and you get all nostalgic about your youth and the kool FRS that you had to sell when the kids were born!

The collector car market has some of the most fickle buyers of any hobby. What is highly sought after and extremely valuable this year can be had for a song from people trying to unload them the next.
As has been said nostalgia and pop culture are two major factors in determining what is popular at any given time. The current economy also plays a huge part in what collector cars are valued and they can plummet in value in weeks if the economy tanks.

This^^^^^^

Another huge factor that has to be considered is how many generations and reiterations we will see of the twins. For all we know the next couple of years could be it. Certain cars often gain value and praise simply by being the superior of their own name. A good example of this is the Lancer Evolution. There are certain generation models that are much more revered than others.

I guess we need to take a couple of steps back and define "collectors car".
My version of this is it sits and never gets driven at all. A true collectors car will lose value for every mile put on it.
If we are talking a rare car that is used for weekends or casual use it could be a "show" or "hobby" car but would no longer have collector status.
I think the Evos you spoke of fit into a class other then "collector" since they are loved for their driving characteristics and are therefore actually driven. I doubt there are many hidden away that never see the road.

I'm glad you brought this up @Tcoat. I was merely thinking of the term being used as cars you would want in your "collection". Basically one of many vehicles you have in your inventory available for use.

If we are going by the literal definition then I would have to agree with those that say the twins will not be a collector's car.

I don't see them ever being worth more than what we paid for a new one, but I do see the values leveling off in a couple years. Especially if the model dies.
So will a nice BRZ be worth 15 grand all day long in 2022? Yeah, I could see that.
In my eyes, then, the car could be "collectible" based on limited numbers and cult status, but not particularly valuable.

What you will see, but few will take advantage of, is the oportunity to drive a cool car for free once these are 25-30 year old cars.

In the Miata and MGB world, you won't make money by buying and selling the cars. However a perfect MGB that was restored by someone 5 years ago is going to sell for about 15k. Garaged low mile Miatas for about 9-10 k max. You can buy these cars, take good care of them, and five years later sell for what you paid. This essentially free use of a car for five years. Not a bad deal.

The same can be done with any of the specialty cars that have a nostalgic following. The only warning is that you have to be good at spotting a good car versus a bodged together for sale piece of junk.

Ha.

No.

They're too cheap, and already being sold in greater numbers than most similar cars as a result. The Mazda Miata is a PERFECT example of what to expect from the twins as they get older. I'm thinking that that the most they'll ever be worth...is what we paid for them. Unless you park it in the garage for sixty years. :-/

My prediction:

In 10 years, a well maintained, 100% unmodified 86 will be a unicorn and it's resale value will reflect that.

no

in 10-15 years this will be the new 240sx

Said this a lot of times and I know there are not many that believe it but... The majority of these cars will get bought, left stock, driven daily to the workplace and rarely (if ever) get driven the way they are supposed to be. We have a huge bias that they will all be modded but even on this forum many are and will be left pretty much stock. There will be many of them to be found that have not been molested for a long time. Now once they get dirt cheap and in range of the average 17 year old then all bets are off.

Well, it's hard to tell .....:iono:

I remember, back in the day (about 1953/54), my uncle owned a Chevrolet dealership. He had this white, 1953 Corvette, with red interior, sitting all alone on his lot.

He couldn't "give them away", ..... so he said.

My father wouldn't have any part of the little, plastic, cobbled together car.

Yep, it was a small, light, nimble, rear wheel drive, underpowered car.

The one below was sold by Barrett-Jackson last year for $660,000.

Just sayen ..... :popcorn:


humfrz

I disagree. There are perfect examples of MR2 Spyders and Miatas with very low miles that are 15 or more years old with less than 30K miles on them, babied and never modified and you can still pick them up for 1/2 of their original list price. The twins have already out sold the full run of MR-S and are still selling reasonably well.

The prices of good used examples may stabilize and they may start to hold their a portion of their value but I seriously doubt if prices will even reach their bought new price and time in the next 30+ years.

While a cherry twin with low miles might be desirable in the future, it is doubtful that it will ever be considered collectible in the accepted automotive sense of the word IMO.

Hum! Are you really comparing the value of 1 of 300 first year production vehicles of a world wide automotive icon to the twins?
And here I have always liked you.


http://troll.me/images2/godfather/youre-dead-to-me.jpg

I kind of agree with @rice_classic. If you keep it nice, it will be worth some money down the road. Hemi 'Cuda money? No, but find a nice, unmolested, low mileage '70-'71 240Z, and see how much cash that sets you back.
As for my FR-S...it will be worth it's weight in scrap metal by the time I'm ready to part with it.

From an enthusiast perspective? Yes, always desirable.

From a financial investment perspective? You are literally better off placing the money under a mattress for the next 20 years and then selling it to collectors because physical money is a novelty.

Any car that was produced in attainable numbers, even as low as a couple thousand units is not worth what was paid for it brand new unless there are extenuating circumstances (i.e. they melted away or this is a special unit). At best you could sell a Toyobaru for what was spent on it new (inflation adjusted) in about 50 years, everything I've seen points to that number working out from 911's and Corvette's and Mustangs and Sprites and TR6's to cars that are halfway through that age curve like Miata's and RX-7's and AE86's and 911's and Corvettes Mustangs.

You wanna make money buying and selling one of these as a classic? Sell what you've got now, buy a car from the 80's-90's give or take a few years (Miata, Trans-Am, Miata, Mustang, Miata, RX-7, Miata, AE86, Miata, MR2, Miata, 240sx, MX-5, GTV6) for around $5k, keep it mint for the next 20 years, sell it for a fat profit as the kids of that decade hit mid-life crisis and buy a ~20 year old Toyobaru at under $10k (or slightly higher because inflation), hope fossil fuels are still relevant and sell that 20 years later.

1965 911 MSRP ~$6k
50 years later top condition car is ~$40k
Inflation adjusted $6k 50 years later is $37.2k
at 60 years later, low condition cars are >$100k and up to $300k for special ones
And if that money was stuck in an index fund it'd be up in the $150k range guaranteed after 60 years.

The real trick is to go back in time and pick up a decent longhood 911 (or 'vette) for $500 in the 80's, I'm sure there are guys here who saw cars like that with those prices and those cars are now worth well into six figures.

There's data for the 1985 Supra, which MSRP'd for about $16k, 30 years later a top condition car is worth at best $17k, I won't bother doing the inflation adjustment to tell you how much that car is in the hole for somebody holding onto it as a collector car. However you can pick up decent ones for <$10k now, fix it up and hold out for 20 years, much safer investment than the toyobaru.

My money would be on early RX-7's and MR2's, both novelty cars, both performers, both dirt cheap right now (i.e. lower than what was paid for them in the 80's brand new).

Well, @Tcoat ....... I reckon you have a good point.

So, I'll just unwrap my FR-S and drive it ..... :D


humfrz

Agree with most but strongly disagree with the "buy it now and fix it up" concept. Unless you are talking a nice barn find Bugatti or something fixing up a car does not work if you want any real collector value to it. Those top dollar ones are all original, low mile oddities not a well used but fixed up version. This means that if you truly want to gamble on a car becoming collectable you buy it, park it, maintain it and hope to hell somebody really wants it 30 years down the road.
Not to say it can't still happen with just the right car but most of those 30+ year old cars that fetch big bucks now were made in much smaller numbers than modern cars and were pretty rare to start with.

Like the S2000 arguably a better car produced in lower volume?

Kelly blue book values a mint 10,000 mile 2000 m.y. S2000 at $15k. We all know that's bogus and the reality is you'd be lucky to pry it from it's owner for $20k, the absolute ceiling on that car is $25k for a late model (<10 years old) with sub 40k miles. And that's a car that retailed for >$30k and while values have stabilized as the 86 hits used markets I bet the S2000 will continue it's downward trend, maybe never dipping below $10k for the average worthy example (DD-able, only light work, good cosmetics) due to the supply never outpacing demand but that's at 1/3 the 'actual dollars' of the original purchase price.

Nah, 86 value will decline steadily for 20+ years, I wager we'll see them below the $10k mark.

You haven't looked at the 911 market have you? People didn't even fix up some of those $500 hunks of junk and ask several tens of thousands for them.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Porsche-911-...m=191575866300

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Porsche-911-...m=111664846946

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Porsche-911-...m=281685675277

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Porsche-911-...m=141658665701

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Porsche-911-...m=221764612057

I'm not talking top dollar cars, I'm talking drivers cars that are cheap today and will be desirable tomorrow, just like those 911's and Corvettes'.

Boxster would be a good pickup, they're in the low teens, someday early water cooled Porsche's will get similar treatment to the air cooled ones. Cars like the 928/944 are starting to pick back up again after languishing under $5k for the last 10 years with nice examples fetching $10k+ It isn't unreasonable for a DIYer to drive a project car as a second car wait 10-20 years and make enough money to fund a new daily driver and project car.

Or just pray for about 100,000 of them to get totaled!

I did say there were exceptions but again those were all pretty low run cars. Notice that even though battered they were all still original cars and not fixed up. One final note as well is that what people ask for them and what they actually get are two different worlds as can be seen by all the "reserve not met on those ones.


My statement was more around collector level cars and I do agree with you 100% when taking about driver level ones.

And why does such a car have such a great selling price? More than just rarity, it's desirability. What I think contributes to the value of a collector car is how many cars in that same line have been sold after it. You look at Corvette, and it didn't really do that well its first years in production (like the BRZ/FRS). They didn't make many of them either!

First year was only 300, second year only 3,640. 700 in '55, 3,467 in '56, and it increased to about 14,500 in '62. How many Corvettes are sold these days? About 40,000 a year. Multiply that by the decades before, and you got a million of em or so. You have lots of people with Corvettes which means you have a lot of fans, and even if only 1% are fanatical enough to buy a later model Corvette or a classic, that's still a thousand of em, then you include general car collectors who see the value of RARITY multiplied by decades, and you have a very rare car that drives up the price.

The BRZ can see the same thing too I think, depends on if it keeps going for another 20-30 years. Like I said in my first post, my car is only one of about 180 examples ever made, and one of just 129 for 2013. The first model year Corvette was 300 made.

You hear about how old Camaros from the same year selling for $50,000 vs $500,000 in auction. What's the difference? Rarity. Options, dealer added limited editions, etc. A BRZ with 6000 cars made in 2013 doesn't seem rare, but the options (Limited, Automatic, Galaxy Blue), can make it valuable. A Silver, White, or Black Premium BRZ in Manual is the most common.

Even if I was wealthy, I'm not sure I'd be able to keep a car as a "collectible". Cars are meant to be driven, that's what they're built for. If I was gifted with lets say, an early mint condition NSX from it's original owner and I put it in a garage to sit with other cars, it would weigh so hard on mind ever second of every day that I was not driving it. Why do we especially love performance cars? I might as well have the same NSX with nothing in its engine bay.

With that being said, I'm also fanatical about original OEM condition. Seeing a car you loved as a child in such a condition that it seemed to roll off the assembly line yesterday is incredibly captivating. For example, cars of the 90's have their own "aura" if you will. The way the plastics feel, the smell of the cars, things like this capture the decade. Every time I'm at a car show and I happen upon a car like this, you could swear my expression was of a 5 year old.

Value of cars is a blurry subject. A few posts above someone mentioned the definition of a collector car is one that gets "collected" to be stored. In more cases than none, this will be a better way to find these "time capsules", because our cars are meant to be driven, and I completely agree with it. Enter someone like myself who desires this car because it is so close to having one of these 90's type cars, brand new, never owned. I realize I love this car because of what it was designed to do, so I'm going to drive it, but I also try to take extremely good care of it. If done right, you can drive and enjoy a car while still having it look like new, even years down the road regardless of mileage. The wonderful thing about cars today, (and another reason why I'm such a Toyota fan) is that they are reliable and can hold up to time better than cars have before.

15 years from now, I would have no problem shelling out decent cash for an FR-S that was well maintained from it's original owner even if the odometer was well into 100k. From a mass market perspective, at this point no it's not looking well for value overall, but for someone like myself it can make a difference for sellers. For example lets says I had 10k in the bank and was in the market for an MR2. Relatively good cars go for 5k, but I would have no problem paying 7k because it's worth more than that to me.

Great write up!
It can sometimes be difficult to distinguish the difference between a driving enthusiast and a car enthusiast because we here generally seem to be a bit of both. I am with FR in the fact I would suck as a true collector because I would want to drive the cars I had not just let them sit there. Jay Leno is famous for his collection and although he does have his driver cars I recall an interview where he said that many (most?) of them have under 100 miles on the clock. He was very clear that he does not drive them but considers them more as pieces of art to be admired but not used.
The other thing that FR brings forward is the whole concept of what car is worthy of being considered a collector car in the first place. This is so incredibly complex and dependent upon generation, personal nostalgia, pop culture, availability, automotive mythos, etc, etc that I doubt we could get more than 10% of the people here to agree on the top 20 list of what is collectable. Although I understand at an intellectual level that cars from the 90s could be collectable I totally miss the boat on and emotional level. To me they are all just "new" cars and no matter how great they may be I can not connect with a single one of them at a level where I would want to own it just to look at. The same applies to cars prior to the late 50s except in their case they are just "old" cars. My background, nostalgia, car history, etc really only leaves me room to emotionally recognize cars from the late 50s to mid 70s as potential collector vehicles. Do I love my FRS? Yes for sure. Can I be emotionally attached to it enough to picture it as a collector car in 30 years? Not a hope, since to me (and probably to others in my demographic) it is just a new car. The people that will want one of these in 30 years are the guys that had to give it up due to growing families or such other influences or the guys that wanted one now and just could not do it.
A lot has been said about how the old 'Vettes, Camaros and other rarer Pony cars are so valuable now but their example really does not carry over to today. Back from the late 50s to mid 70s we had all the Baby Boomers that wanted these cars and just could not have them since they were rare even when new and there was just so many people in that group there were not enough to go around so we had to wait for 30+ years to be able to pick one up. This no longer applies in this age. The Twins are made in numbers that more than meet the current demand and the main target demographic is much, much smaller so there should be an ample supply of reasonably priced, good condition ones around in the future.

I believe the car I almost got instead of my Camaro can be considered a collector (Solstice coupe, see below). Good luck finding one now.

I think the twins definitely have the potential, but only time will tell.

This car will be quite the opposite. It is the whore of the JDM field right now. I expect it will spawn a new class of Spec racing and give Spec Miata a run for the money.

It may not depreciate down like a Nissan Sentra but it will probably not see the revival of interest that the RX7 FD, Supra, NSX, AE86 have enjoyed.

It is not a more unique car than the MR2 Turbo was... to put things into perspective.

You say "no" but then say something that makes my point to a "T". Where the 240 is today is exactly why an unmodified FRS in 10 years will yield a premium on the used market, because it will be rare. Just like an unmodified 240sx is today (or Integra, CRX, S2000).
My bias is what I see everyday. When I see them driving around town, 9 out of 10 are modified. It also doesn't help that the OEM actually designed the car with the expectation they would be modded. Secondly, this car also lends itself to be modified as it appeals to a market more prone to that action and modding is more common in that segment. However, the resale market still puts a penalty on modifications.
And that's why. They sure as hell aren't worth 1/2 of their original list price, but because unmolested versions are so rare they warrant a higher premium. IMHO, a 100% OEM stock CRX si (2nd gen) should be ~$1k-1.5k but finding one is like unicorn hunting and when you do find one it'll probably sell for like $5k. Seriously.. $5k for a CRX. Goddamn. I know this because I've had to find one recently for a ChumpCar build and finding one in OEM form for what it should be worth just wasn't going to happen. After 6 months of hunting I had to settle for one that didn't even have the right engine in it.

A mint Integra Type R just sold recently on Ebay for $43k... totally stock. However, the ITR most likely will be "collector" status before too long but most of them were ruined from theft, not just modding.

Someone else mentioned that 10 years isn't that long but really it is. By 2005 it was almost impossible to find an unmodified Integra GSR. By 2012 it's hard to find an AP1 s2000 that wasn't either abused/neglected or beaten with an ugly stick (modded). I think in 2023 (and these are discontinued by then) the difference in price in the used market between modified and 100% OEM will be quite large.
I agree with both those statements. There would need to be shift in the automotive market very soon to make the FRS a collector like if no other RWD sports car had a manual transmission in the future or no other sports car was made without a hybrid system or something. Something happens where the FRS is sort of the "last of it's kind". If that happens then maybe but yeah.. doubtful.

The Sky was on my short list as well, and you are right I think they will be at least semi-depreciation proof if nothing else.

My stock sky won't be worth much. And as far as I know, the coupe was only the solstice.
Sky redline will be worth a good bit soon.

Yea, it was the Redline I was looking at.

I really want a redline at this point. Although, I do hate the top. And center console. And steering wheel. It seems too high, and if I lower it, I can't see the top of the tach and speedo

I don't think so, if they continue making them.

It'll be a 350z---->>350z upgraded----->370z now thing.


I see 350's almostn everywhere now! 5 Civics for every 1 350z, and 10 civics for every 1 FRS, but 10 FR-S for every BRZ.

The difference is the Twins were pretty much made to be modded.
In the 90s, Integra, 300ZX, etc. etc. cars were not put into a marketplace where the manufacturer knew it would be modded so much, that just happened, and without the huge aftermarket we see today.
A properly and tastefully modded Twin will be more valuable than a stock one, in my view. The stock car has too many weaknesses to need its "purity" intact, whereas an S2000 for example can often be ruined.