Anticipating year to year changes
 

Hey guys, like many of you I am playing wait and see with the FR-S. I thought it might be fun to imagine year to year changes and how the car's development will pan out.

Here's my take:

1st year 2012MY
The base line, 200hp, 151tq

2nd year 2013MY
1st year kinks worked out
More horsepower - although probably not official (dynos will read higher - perhaps due to more efficient drive train)
Probably updated suspension settings for both cars
Introduction of a "stripped" BRZ variant to compete with the FR-S
Probably more options available on the Scion to compete with the BRZ

3rd year 2014MY
Two seater roadster introduced
Probably slight horsepower gain as well, again "off the books", it will still be officially 200hp

4th year 2015MY
First year of really "special editions", probably to hold interest. Probably meaning aero kits, design elements, perhaps updated suspension. I predict one special edition Subaru and one special edition Toyota.

5th year 2016MY
Final year of production, so probably new special editions, "final edition" run, probably a JDM special edition with more power.

Keep in mind in 2016 the car landscape will probably be totally different. New Mustang, new 1 series, new Genesis coupe.

What are your predictions for year to year changes?

Also I predict a "mid cycle refresh" with updated front and rear designs probably at the same time the roadster is introduced.

Wouldn't be surprised if on the later cars, probably 4th or 5th years, they also update gearing to make it even faster (think last generation RX8).

Welcome to the forum :-)

Now, is this based on anything other that a finger in the air guess?
I am not familiar enough with Toyota or Subaru's historic handling of model enhancements to have a clue.

So, you think they'd do a "Last 86" before a refresh? I'd take a set of bookends.

Actually I was just looking at similar performance cars from Japan. S2000, RX8, Subaru's own STI.

Toyota also has history of following a similar pattern with the MR2/MR2 Spyder.

Toyota has already alluded to having the 86 running for about a 10 year production cycle, so right there your timeline will be hosed up. They also unofficially "winked" that a small power bump [non-boosted] would happen mid-life cycle.

Based on that, I would anticipate two relatively inexpensive aesthetic refreshes [bumpers, lights, interior trim, new wheel], one in MY16 and one in MY19, with a small power bump in each [perhaps 10 HP each].

They may do special editions, but hopefully they're not constant and trivial like Miata special editions. It seems like Scion's Release Series are a bit more substantial. I don't foresee a possibility of a USDM TRD Scion, but I can picture an STI "model" that would throw the accessory catalog at the car and call it good.

Jack Hollis also stated at the Scion Debut Day that a new model FRS will be released every year in North America. This is probably the hint that there will be "FRS Release Series" starting MY14. And it is unclear if FRS:AD will be available at the first year run.

As far as Chassis changes i expect to see one also during its mid-span on its 10 year production. Kouki FRS anyone.

Maybe Toyota has winked about a 10 year production run, but it is extremely rare for any Japanese performance car to have such a long performance run. Especially not without two distinct versions (NSX NA1/NA2, S2000 AP1/AP2).

If they do plan for 10 years, I would expect a huge improvement at around the 4 or 5 year mark to allow it to be fresh for the next 5 years. For practically all sports cars like this, the demand is all captured in the first two years and then interest plummets. I think introducing a roadster in a couple years might extend the life cycle to 5 years, but to 10 I'd anticipate pretty major changes.

I was actually kind of surprised that there is no Scion released series announced yet for the first model year. The TC, Scion's previous flagship, had a release series for each year it was made.

Years 2-10 will get heavier every year. Eventually a slight power boost.

That's about all I'd bet on right now.

I was a bit surprised too. But the Tc was originally built for the N/A market so they had more play time. While the FRS was built for a global market. The amount of time Scion has had to play with the FRS and adjust its marketing scheme for n/a is still very small compared to amount of time Toyota Japan and Subaru Japan has had to adjust its global marketing plan.

I expect a lame "Release Series 1.0 to infinity" from Scion every year. I wouldnt hold my breath for under the radar power increases every year

Originally, I figured they'd release an "Anniversary" edition or something similar down the line. Though, that's more of a Nissan thing...
From my experiences with Toyota (as a consumer), I notice that they're quite fond of minor aesthetic mid-cycle refreshes but tend to stick to their tried and true engineering when it comes to the mechanicals. Then again, I've never come across a 10 year cycle from Toyota before, so anything's possible at this point.

With current legislation the way it is, they might add a backup camera as standard and have steering wheel controls as an option. Jus sayin'.

It's actually quite common. Once a company has experience building a brand new platform for 30,000+ examples (all cars are being built at the same Subaru plant) - it's easy to spot simple things to weed out inefficiencies in the drive train. You tend to see second MY cars dynoing a bit higher then first MY cars even when there was no official announcement.

Why would Toyota/Scion want to make the FRS/86 compete with it's twin the BRZ?

They're good friends right?

I predict all the fanbois purchasing this car, once all 6,000 of them have purchased this car, sales will suck, the the marketing team will
fix the car by insisting that the users want more power, then this car will get more power and all the fanbois that purchased it will assure that this car doesn't need more power (I call that denial).

I'm afraid that the target market is a very small one so we'll see what happens. Better predictions will happen after the price is announced.
If this car costs the same or more than the WRX IT WILL NOT SELL WELL.
period.

I agree, but we still don't know the price and we still don't know what price the next generation WRX and STI is going to cost?

They are only making 6000 BRZ for all of north america. They will all sell, but only if the price is right.

Scion is going to be in more trouble if they price the FR-S wrong.

We will see a brand new BRZ\FRS\86 in 5 years. But by then the car will be pushing over $30k starting...

Subaru has been hinting at a more bare bones model for the 2013 MY. I suspect Scion and Subaru have an agreement for the first year sales to separate the target markets, and then after that they will probably both allow options which overlap each other - Subaru offering more bare bones options and Scion adding options like navigation and maybe bluetooth.

Just speculation at this point but that's the vibe I'm getting.

Hoping for a type-r ish car. Do toyota or subaru have a stripped racey trim tradition like that?

I hope something like that happens, but it worries me that they decided that all Americans would want an upgraded stereo over the rest of the world. Fingers crossed.

i really like the look and the refresh in styling is usually gay; case in point new genesis coupe does not look as cool. So i hope they dont change the body's styling to much.

Ya, 'RA' but its never been in 'merica. More realistically the wrx tr for tune-ready, was a cheaply packaged model intended for stero and interor upgrades ect.

probably after MY 2012 the planet earth no longer exist because of mayan shit

Just FYI, the car is being released as a Model Year 2013.