A pessimist's take on sales success / failure
 

Read this comment on another site (not posted by me!) and was wondering what the members here think about these comments - whether they have merit or not.

My fear is that this kind of thing really happens and the FR-S/BRZ ends up having a short lifespan run due to bad sales.

makes it more unique when i own it^

if the miata and civic si havent been killed off yet, then i dont think any of us should worry. and if this car does get a short life span... instant collectible car :D

350z says wassup

I'm an old enthusiast and I still want this car more than a big 4 door :shrug:

Miata's sell very well considering they are a niche car. These types of cars are not supposed to be a primary source of income for the manufacturer, that's what Accords, Camrys, Altimas, etc are for.

The 240SX stopped be sold over 10 years ago!

Other than the Mustang and Camaro, which still sell in droves, there aren't ANY cheap RWD cars out there.

It WILL sell well. I haven't seen this much interest in a car since the '02 WRX and we all know what happened with that...

Keep it cheap and good looking! see: 350Z.

There is definitely a market for this car. Marketing and reinventing the Scion brand (Honestly just getting people talking about a Scion) will play a major role in the cars success. I see Subaru getting more sales out of this car based on brand alone. There is definitely a market for this car though, there are a lot of new Genesis Coupes, Mustangs and WRXs running around Ottawa and it snows a LOT here.

I am 95% certain to be buying one of these at this point. The only info we don't have is 27 days away. The styling, weight, stance, horse power, torque, storage and interior all look stellar to me. If they confirm it has an Aisin AZ6 transmission I'll go place a down payment.

I somewhat agree with original poster.

In my experience car ownership and car modification do not go hand in hand like peanut butter and jelly.

Most car enthusiasts are 15-50 with majority of people enjoying JDM cars in their 18-30s. Unfortunately that is also a group that does not have zillions of dollars to spend. Car purchase for a teenager usually implies buying a used vehicle while college graduates can buy new vehicles but they also have college bills to pay for.

In my personal experience I began modifying cars in 2001 right when fast and furious came out and at the time I was 18 or so and every mod to my car had to be calculated. I had to save up for half of year to do anything really. Meanwhile of course we saw tv shows like pimp my whatchamacallit advertising how easy it is to modify cars. Unfortunately they have forgot to mention that to "hook a car up" you needed to buy the car first and then have enough cash reserve to do 20,000 dollars worth of modifications to make it go fast, sound nice and look cool.

With time as I was growing up I saw a transition of car theme to sedans like pointed out above but I also saw a trend which involved people sticking with their old cars and not necessarily buying new ones. Those that did buy cars of their dreams barely modified them (ie wrx sti/evo x owners drive mostly stock vehicles) because car payments and insurance cost a very hefty dollar.

Another thing that sort of became apparent is that at some point in your life you have to make that decision which says... do I buy a sports car and be happy or do I buy a vehicle that can suit my lifestyle/family needs... be it a van, a sedan, a truck or otherwise. To top it off economy is doing very iffy so buyer confidence may prevent owners from buying fancy sport(y) cars.

Time will tell.

Really, that original quote, really? The Miata is THE best selling sports car of all time... It's cheap, fun and easy to drive, and reliable. If the FT86 is as good as that, and by all accounts it will be, I believe it will take some miata sales

I agree with the article to some extent. For instance, I have a family with young children, the only way for myself to own this car would be buying it as a second car to enjoy the driving. In other words, I will be spending the money for my self enjoyment rather than contributing towards the well-being of the entire family. And when a family man with monetary constaints is in such situations, the value factor certainly plays one of critical rolls in the purchase decision. Although I really like this car and it seems to be promising, there are certainly other cars out there that can suffice the definition of fun-driving at lower costs while they may not provide the awsome feeling of owning a brand new car released after much anticipation.

Hopefully, Toyota will be able to see that the average age of the enthusiast group is getting higher as suggested by the quoted article and that the value is factor is an important decision tool for the people in this group with economic constraints. Also, the current economic status may also support the increased significance of the value factor nowadays.

+1

I see a lot of miatas.

OP's Weird OP needs to take his head out of his bum.

What the blogger didn't realize is that life goes on. He seems like he's from my generation and does have a point in regards to the age demographic. What he also doesn't realize is that generation passed and evolved into a new set of car enthusiasts.

That crowd, incidentally, is down in numbers because of the legal and social response to the “street racing scene.” I’d bet that the enthusiast crowd is proportionally older than before, because of that. That means they’re more likely to need practicality because they have kids, or might soon have them.

I do believe that this car being a Scion in the US and not a Toyota will have an slight impact on sales. Seeing all of the information in this recent week, I doubt we'll see this car tank... now we just need to see the price.

When it comes to new cars these days, I'm ridiculously pessimistic as well. Not only does the industry seem to be taking away attainable fun cars, the platforms are disappearing as well. I drive a Miata. It doesn't do everything well. But it's fun. That single trait was worth compromising my safety, fuel economy, insurance payments, sexual orientation perception, and cargo capacity.

Which is why I can't look at the FR-S/BRZ with anything but optimistic anticipation. They want to do it all. They want to create a fun car without the compromises. If this car doesn't sell, it won't be Toyota or Subaru's fault at all.

You have to realize that there is a market for people who buy cars who don't fit into the... market... eh hmm....

There is money be made off of people who fall in between the lines, because... well there's a ton of people out there. This car won't be mass produced like a Camry, it's more selective, like an STi. And Mazda still has enough of a reason to keep building the Miata. :iono: all seems good to me in the world of fun cars!

I would say Mustang, Camaro, and even Challenger disagree. Make something people want/need and they will buy it.

I can't be the only one that test drove all those cars and disliked them. I'm 30 years old, I have a solid career, a house in the burbs, tennant income and a dog. The only thing I need now is another, new, different sports car to attract more 24 year old girls.

:thanks: Toyobaru!

The only way this car is going to fail is if they don't make enough to keep up with demands...

I'm 30 with my first baby, I'm using this as my DD and only vehicle...

Me too! My 240sx is getting the job done right now. I have to tie down the front passenger seat because the infant carseat won't fit in the back with it upright. I was worried that my suspension would be too stiff but it just rocks him right to sleep.

By the time this car comes out he will be ready for a recaro convertible.

On subject. This car is a halo car. It doesn't have to sell well, just bring people to the dealership.

The OP's quote is flawed for a bunch of reasons.

For one, the Civic Si (06-11) was a very successful car.

The Miata isn't a smashing success, but isn't a dismal failure either. Plus, the main reason why it's so niche is that it looks like a chick car, if not a rag-top toad. Phenomenal handling dynamics, terrible styling.

The S2000 sold way beyond projections when it came out 10 years ago, sales tapered off mainly cus it's so old.

Camaro and Mustang are RWD, heavy, but are selling really well (esp the Camaro relative to previous generations).

The quote also doesn't understand the demographic of this car. One very intentional target are empty nesters, older people from the 80s who have some disposable income, and who grew up remembering the AE86 (this is more of a Japan thing). At the same time it draws upon sports compact enthusiasts (Civic owners), autocross/track enthusiasts, and possibly some mainstream audiences.

At this point the big question is pricepoint. If they sell the barebones at $22k and low trim at $24k it's a winner.

I disagree, it will sell like crack rocks. Based on looks alone.

I didn't study the numbers on the MX-5 on sales, but I think Mazda has a lot to do with how well the car sells... There are a few factors to consider...

If you choose to go with a name that has a legacy, you are already trying to appeal to that certain demographic while alienating others due to the name alone... No matter how good / bad the car is, you're going to have potential buyers for and against it simply for the name...

Examples of this is purely for people who don't want the "girly / gay" badge associated with the Miata not wanting to buy it regardless of how well the car might fit their style... The flip side is for people who always had a Miata knowing they are driving one of the most fundamentally sound roadsters in the world looking for an upgrade, they're going to hawk over a forum just for every bit of info there is to leak of the next one... (ND)

The downside to this tactic is that the number of people who like the Miata probably already has one, and might not need another for some time... So your demographic is getting smaller and smaller as your buying base has more and more Miatas... While not growing any for people that already made up their mind about not even testing driving it based purely on the history...

For every one person that don't like the Miata's current look, there is about one person that does... I am in a camp of people that actually love the car's look entirely from head to toe... As is with the FT86 so far... (Concept II FTW though)

Now if Mazda was more aggressive into selling their MX-5 and try to appeal to more people through smart advertising, I'm sure their numbers will ALSO see huge benefits... However Mazda chose to use the moniker to carry the sales instead of the Apple approach and combine both smart advertising and moniker (i.e. many generations of iPods / iPhones)...

I personally never knew the draw of a Miata, or what it has to offer until I test driven one on a whim with a friend looking to lease something fun for himself... Boy oh boy when I did, it changed my life... Literally without exaggerating, my entire life... I'm only 30, so obviously I missed out on a lot of the earlier vehicles where light weight and raw power was the base of the design, and this FT86 is going to be my hope and dream I was driving in that era... I think Toyota / Subaru has a HUGE hurdle to overcome by not using a known moniker but it also means that a LOT of people is going to view this as something they can own without a drawback... So at least they're going to test it if anything rather than leaving it on the table without ever experiencing it... So that alone is a huge plus, just depends on how they advertise it now...

So like the Mustang / Camero, the name carries the vehicles a LOT because these are iconic names through the generations... There have been many success and flops carrying the Mustang name for quite a while, and the new vehicles having the retro look is IMO one of the huge reasons they're doing so well... I don't think the vehicles are any more fun to drive than their 80s / 90s counter parts... Nor would they be the right fit for anyone not doing straight line racing without gutting the vehicle and re working it from the ground up... However, straight line racing draws more people because it's the easiest form of racing one can get into... So you usually have more potential buyers if your vehicle appeals more to that crowd vs another design...

The FT86 is only going to fail by price point and supply, so yeah, I've always said it, must be less than WRX, and more than tC to make business sense... However, any alternative vehicle to the FT86 is a very radical design change and while MX-5 is great, I remember during the time there was also the Saturn Sky and Pontiac Solstice as direct competitors... For the FT86, there is no direct competitor... I now hope Nissan comes out with a legit light weight RWD vehicle of their own named the 240... AWWWYEAHHHH baby...

TL;DR - Miata's name is a huge plus and also it's undoing, people know the name will either buy it or avoid it, FT86 is going to appeal to everyone at least once, Nissan needs to come out with a light weight 240 to compete directly with FT86 AWWWYEAHHHH!!

Well personally I dont want the ft86 to become too popular otherwise everytime you turn your head you will see another one on the road. I dont want it to become so common like the civic....

Why? Popular means a huge aftermarket and lots of people who are knowledgable with the car. I don't care if my car is common that makes no sense to me.

I don't think the car will be a huge sales hit either. When you consider the Honda Civic Si, it is not really a niche car like this one will be. The Civic is still a mass produced model, and the Si only being the "sport" model of the particular car. Many people justify buying the car because it maintains Honda reliability, and practical space with day to day commuter abilities. I don't think we can compare the sales of this car potentially to something like the Mini either, which is a bit of a niche car. It just doesn't have the "cute" appeal that the Mini does have... or a massive hatchback for everyday useability.

The FT86/FRS/BRZ is being marketed as an enthusiasts car... rear drive, limited slip diff, manual transmissions aplenty, light weight, and a pure driving experience. Many people who are buying a normal car would skip right past this one as they would see it being a chore driving it daily. Light weight + rear drive and inclement weather typically don't mix either. I just don't see much room for the masses in this car, period.

I can only hope it sells on the scale of the Miata, but I'm doubtful of that as well.

I agree with Dave on this one. The only challenge with the flood of new users to this forum showing great interest is going to be initial production supplies, with each dealer getting one, maybe two cars a month.

I bet preorder deposits will be thru the roof, maybe unlike any other car that has come along in quite some time.

What other cars, that have come out in the last ten years, had very high preorder/ deposit numbers prior to production release?

:laughabove: Win! That is awesome!

Nissan GT-r, and the most amazing car ever... the Skoda Yeti (in my best Jeremy Clarkson voice)

This car has a lot against it to be a big seller.

Its too expensive to be marketed as an alternative to compact cars (civic, corolla, focus). Its too small/impractical for most people who will only own one car, unlike the WRX & GTI. For outright speed, the Mustang, Camaro, and Challenger are all faster at or near the same price, as well as being large enough to fit 4 in comfort.

This really will be an "enthusiasts" car, for people willing to give up practicality and cost for a better driving experience. It could also appeal to someone who already has a second, more practical car.

That being said, initial sales will be strong, because I expect every car enthusiast who would purchase this car already knows about it. No potential purchaser of this car is going to be surprised to see it in a showroom next year.

Why not attribute then?

Original post on Miata.net here.

Full thread entitled "TRD Scion FR-S | FT-86 and Subaru BRZ STI Concept Revealed" located here.


Like many of you here, a number of Miata owners are excited about the prospects of the FR-S/FT-86.
:happy0180:

Here's what Toyota/Subaru needs to do to prevent the FT-86/BR-Z from becoming the "4 seater Miata".

1. Sell a crap load to all the cone dodgers and track rats for a year.

2. Release a factory warrantied turbo or S/C kit with ECU reflash and other supporting odds and ends by year two. People who want it will buy it and people who don't won't.

3. By year 5, offer something based on a somewhat bigger version of the same chassis, drop a V or straight 6 in it, and call it the Supra. Steal away some of the Mustang/Camaro and Z crowd.

In other words, the only thing this car lacks is decent power, easily rectified with a turbo from the subaru parts bin.

For those who still hold out because they want even more power (and also more luxury), bring back the Supra.

i think that the price of the FT-86 will have a big affect on sales. if the car will be sold for 25K$ people will have the choice for either a used 2009/2010 370z or the ft-86!!

some will prefer the 370z specially with the touring package that got the nav/sat and hard disk!!

from where i come (middle east) we care allot about quarter mile speed and do allot green light drag races!! (people here dont appreciate or care about low center of gravity or light weighted cars) so there is no game for the FT-86 in the middle east!! plus boxer engines are still new to people here!! people love the Impreza STI but they afraid to buy it because of the boxer engine!! so they go for the EVO!! even though the EVO is more expansive in Bahrain!!

so, if they will sell the FT-86 here for 25K or higher!! some will prefer to get a used fully loaded 370z Manual which will include a syncro rev match!!

for me if the car will be less than 25k i will buy it, and use it for autoX and consider it as a long term project, since i will be having another car for daily use!! but if higher i will get a used 370z and have fun with a 330HP + and allot of options!!

finally!! its will be all depending on Toyota marketing at the end of the day!! after the production of the car, they can increase their sales.. how?

Make events and autoX competitions just for the FT-86

produce allot of after market parts specially SC or turbo kits!!

And Toyota should always put the picture of the old AE86 with the new FT-86, this will boost the car sales!!

The ONLY 370Z worth considering is the Nismo Z. The rest are crap IMO (for what I want). For those that select the Z, the FT likely wasn't the best choice anyways.

Do people in the middle east stop maturing at 16 or something (street racing)? I can't believe that is an accurate description of all enthusiasts over there. There's a race track in Bahrain, one in Qatar and two in the UAE. There's nothing wrong with drag racing if you are into that sort of thing but keep it on the track.

Which is fine. Different people have different needs, wants, etc out of their vehicles.

Maybe in Japan, but in the US at least SCCA or NASA may eventually have a Spec FR-S type class, Toyota won't (they can't have the liability, just as Honda can't sponsor the track portion of NSX Expo or ITR Expo, but can (and does) help with other parts). The closest you'll come in the US to a spec autocross would be the Subaru Challenge but that's not really spec and would require a BRZ I guess :P

I can see turbo kits happening. I don't see SC kits happening as much. Not by Toyota either, but someone will.

This car will succeed, or fail, on it's own merits, nothing else. If Toyota/Subaru screw up the driving experience, it will fail. If they pull it off, it'll be a huge success (but it will NEVER sell in Camry numbers and I guarantee that Subaru/Toyota does not plan on it selling like that either)

It'll be because of the price and the expensive options or lack thereof.

Also let's be honest, your Miata is fun because racing them with the top down is fantastic and a thrill, it's the cheapest way to feel like you are in a Lotus 7 or similar chassis car 3" off the ground. A hard top version would get boring real quick aka FRS. I don't own a Miata, but having autocrossed some with the top down it's a ******* treat even though it was slower.

There is only two things that will keep me from buying this car next year. The msrp for the base model is above $21,000 or if Nissan debuts an S chassis concept at TAS.

Toyota/Scion can do a Spec race or Celebrity race just like they did with the Scion tC. Most likely they will.

I see SC kits happening instead because of the limited space under the car in front and rear of the engine. So a top mount passenger side unit would be needed and the only thing that would be the best scenario cost and fitment wise is a centrifugal charger(ie., Vortech)

You are correct, but they already set the tone for this car and the price. So ultimately this could kill sales. What I mean by tone is "hype" from the media, DK and engineers speaking on the project, this car has a lot to live up to at this point.

The 86 is a fundamentally good car. Pricing alone will determine its level of success in the market.

The 240SX or Nissan Silvia is gonna come back...watch you will see!

True, but I generally understand what he is saying. With the economy and the new generation going into college or coming out with $30+k debt, the price is not within there budgets. Like me, if you were a late 80s into the 90s import enthusiast, wrencher, fabricator, street racer all the way up to today you are now evolved and different. So with all those years, all those cars and experience today you'd expect more from manufactures.

Also who has the money to pay to play? Who are the ones to buy this car? The new generation will be buying USED 02-06 WRX, 04-05 STI, 06-07 Civics, Evo 8s, Mazdaspeed 3s, Cobalts, SRT4s, anything fun, sporty, practical or under $16k. The majority will not have the money for a $25+k car, modifications and afford insurance.

So which brings me back to who is this car targeted at and can they afford it?

What Toyota IMO should do is have a crazy sports car with a lot of potential a la 350z/370z and have a car like the 240sx (being the FR-S). Mazda sorta has this with the RX-8, but that isn't a highly modded car. On the other hand they have the MX-5, which is a very much liked car.

Toyota either had a low variant (AE-86, Celica, MR2) or a really high variant (Supras 89- 98) Really Lexus is the one in charge of the ones in the middle Soarer, Altezza's, etc. But here in the states, it is so rare to find one manual.

I think Toyota/Scion are doing a great move on focusing on that low hp FUN TO DRIVE area, but I also think they should focus on the meduim range to really compete against the 350z/370z, Mustang, Camaro, Evo's and such.

Just my 2 cents :D