The Drive article on Q1 2022 GR86 Sales
 

The Drive Article:
https://www.thedrive.com/news/45041/...which-is-a-lot
Same info from Toyota Pressroom:
https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-...2022-us-sales/

Would be nice to see the actual number of units sold, glad to see the strong initial demand for the GR86!

*edit*
Noticed @fredzy in another post saw the actual sales figure in the second link. GR86 sales as of March 2022 3257

First comment says 333 to 1001 units, meaning they sold an additional 668 units. Essentially 2 additional years of sales at the previous rate. Which makes sense considering the capacity delays, discontinuing the old model, and anticipation for the new model.

Really not that impressive once you look past the percentages.

Given the current climate, it'll be interesting to see the relationship between the delays and limited availability compared to year over year sales.

Typically new model releases have highest sales for the first 2-3 years, and then sales slowly taper off.
Previous gen followed that exact model

Yeah these percentages are garbage and useless practically in the case of this model with the new gen release. With shortages in the way and other factors at play, it is nearly impossible to make any kind of reasonable comparison. I would have been far more curious how it sold comparatively to the initial release of the first gen, but with the way things are, there is no such comparison to be made.

Honestly, I think supply is a huge part of the equation here.

The Toyota dealership I went to on Friday still hasn't taken delivery of a single GR86. And I live in a fairly large metro area. Hell, I haven't seen a single one in person yet.

I've only seen one in person, and the dealership I have an order in with has only received one shipment since the car launched.

Given the supply constraints, what's important is
1) vast majority of MT GR86s are claimed even before they arrive at dealerships
2) very few AT's sit on dealership lots for more than a few days
3) there are multi-month wait lists on GR86s in many places

Looks like they are selling as many as they make, and could sell quite a few more if they could make them.
At least for now there's more than enough demand.

i really think sales numbers would be about the same if supply was able to keep up with demand. overall interest seems to be very close to the same as i remember interest being in 2012-13.

it'll be interesting to see if that interest keeps sales more consistent for a longer period of time.

I’ve seen two on the road - one white, one black - both GR86 premiums. Saw a silver base AT on a dealership floor and a Trueno premium getting prepped for delivery. Haven’t seen a BRZ. When I pick up my Neptune, it will be the first time I’ve seen one in person. I am curious how long it will be before I see another on the road.

Yeah - the local BIG Toyota dealer near me has literally zero new cars on their lot (and only a few inside the showroom). Lots of used now, but they didn't even have any Tundras!

It’s crazy isn’t it?! I’ve seen one, a BRZ. And I live in an area with a good amount of first gen twins!
I also see very few MkV Supras. I’m worried about how difficult it’s going to be to get a GR Corolla. As long as I can get a GR86 at some point I will be happy. Or a 2nd gen BRZ.


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The Toyota dealership I’ve been going to for many years usually has 200+ new vehicles at a time. I think now they have about 20. And most of those are listed as “in transit”. Very crazy times. Buying right now doesn’t make very much sense, unless you absolutely need a new car.


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Wise words indeed. It's tricky though. I have a hard time envisioning things getting back to normal any time soon, so maybe we end up waiting a long time for that. But if the days of fun new ICE vehicles are numbered (as everyone loves to say) how long can we wait? MSRP starts looking real good.. and you have a Fantastic formula for FOMO frenzy.

Is a better time to buy a new car than a used one though!
I hate to sound like a broken record (does that saying even mean anything to young people?) but it is not just the Twins affected by this. When Subaru closes orders for their most popular bread and butter vehicles (Impreza and Crosstrek) in March, an ordered Corolla takes up to six months to receive and you can't get a Chrysler minivan if your life depended on it you know that the market is a mess.
Our orders for OEM parts for the two best selling vehicles in North America literally change by the hour right now since they don't know how many they will be able to make from minute to minute.
The cars WILL come but everybody needs to understand that what was once "normal" is now just a vision of the past. This situation is going to last a while so we can all buckle up and enjoy the ride.

What i dont get about the whole EV vs ICE situation and the so-called death of the ICE, is that...Theres barely any cars available and whatever is on the lots are gone right away....

How the heck are we supposed to have this mass transition towards EV when
1.) we dont have EV cars to transition to
2.) we dont have ICE cars to transition from

and wait lists for both are incredibly long right now (EV's are like 1 year out....your typical ICE is a few months out...and something like the Land Cruiser 300 series that was just released has like a 4 year wait time......)

And we're supposed to meet all these government mandated timelines of like 2030 for full EV transition and no more ICE sales?

These idiots in charge NEVER seem to take into account ANY logistical and manufacturing setback, the current supply chain issues, any potential setbacks in other related sectors (ie slow rollout of EV infrastructure) or even the fact that a giant chunk of the population isnt going to just drop their cars for an EV just to have an EV (they'll most likely drive whatever they have until they need to get something new)


I think things MIGHT be starting to normalize to some degree, (Im seeing it a bit in the computer space with graphics card prices dropping to more normal levels). But things dont just stop, they keep rolling and its only going to normalize one thing at a time though.

With that out of the way, i have seen a few ads for GR86's in my local car dealerships (mostly AT) ...they used to have more available at the beginning of the year though. And i've only ever seen 1 2022 BRZ on the road. Not sure if the dealers have any in stock right now.

My local area must be some sort of phenomenon. It thought maybe it was a Canada wide thing but maybe just the luck of the draw locally but I have seen many BRZs/86s both on the roads and dealer lots around here. In fact, in the last month, I have seen more 22s than all the other years put together.

LOL In fact 50% of the local small town dealer's listed new car stock right now is an 86!
https://www.woodstocktoyota.ca/new/?...E&gclsrc=aw.ds

No doubt. Still can't believe how lucky I was being able to go from Gen1 to Gen2 (and only because I had access to the Toyota Employee Purchase Program) with relatively little out-of-pocket.

My old car. 2020 BRZ limited with 32,000 miles Bought for 28,500 (w/o tax, title) and sold to Vroom for $27,817 (which they are now trying to sell for 30k).

My new car. 2022 GR86 premium with 7 miles. Bought for 30,400 (including PPF, homelink and mats, w/o tax and title).

The funny thing is that the two overpriced 2020 86's from the one dealership are STILL there, and due to the supply chain issues their prices are a little bit more in line (but still overpriced) with the situation nowadays lol. Plus they did bump the price of the AT model awhile ago.....

I spend a lot of time thinking about this because 1. I do believe that progressing toward widespread EV adoption is critical to our survival, but 2. I would probably wither away and die without fun ICE vehicles in my world.

I am confident we will never lose any of the history or heritage of ICE vehicles. At least the good stuff. I think appreciation will only grow with time. The day will come though when buying an ICE vehicle as an A to B appliance no longer makes financial sense, even for poorer folks. Will enthusiast ICE cars still be made then? I feel there is no EV substitute, so I hope so. The big question is how we will be able to continue to enjoy the ones that already exist when that day comes? It will be here sooner than we all think.

My hope is that we'll get some sort of regulatory niche to live in that's not too pricy. As we all know, we're so small in number we wouldn't make much of an impact on pollution or carbon so c'mon.

As EVs increase and demand for gas decreases the price per gallon will increase. Pretty sure that $12 a gallon gas will be the only control they will need on the remaining ICE vehicles. It will become an expensive hobby like owning horses is now.

I guess the silver lining is that these supply issues are hitting everyone across the board - that way, there should be less issues of people who really want a GR86/BRZ, opting to go for a competitor because of availability (since nothing is available).

Dodge is still churning out Chargers and Challengers. I see dozens of trucks hauling them down the highway every day.

just saw my first road-registered '22 brz going the opposite way on the highway today.

about a month ago, i saw 2 on the back of a car hauler, as well, but that's really it for my area so far.

The worst thing about horses is that they need repairs, fuel, and tires, so to speak, even if you aren’t “driving” them. My parents haven’t ridden theirs in 5+ years. The horses just stand out in the field consuming money.

Yep. And that is what will happen when ICE become hobby vehicles.

The Drive article on Q1 2022 GR86 Sales
 

There are already mechanisms in place to keep the cost low on infrequently driven cars. Classic tags, weekend driver insurance plans. It won’t literally be consuming fuel as it slumbers in the garage the way horses need fed.

I think we are many years from that being the case, though. If new car volume went 100% EV today, it would still take ~10 years to turn over 1/2 of the fleet. And we are probably 10 years or more from that BEV having that kind of new market penetration.

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but ev will eventually alter the supply/demand structure of current oil refining demands in a way the globe really hasn't seen before.

likely, they'll shift refinery duties from producing large quantities of gasoline to other petroleum substances. we'll likely end up importing gasoline in niche amounts from other countries that aren't such emissions powerhouse, and still refine to gasoline. the shipping will drive the price up and out of the hands of typical people.

Didn't say it will be tomorrow.
The current systems for classic cars assume that the majority of new cars are still ICE. When ICE goes away yes there will still be those special antique car techs, insurance , parts etc but the price of them will go through the roof. That is ignoring what the price of gas will do when it is a small scale niche hobby product and not a mass consumer commodity.
The change to EVs will force ICE operating costs up way faster than you may think. Every single gallon of gas reduced will eventually push the rest up.

Well they need product to sell and thats the only things they sell lol.

lithium, and cobalt are still considered a rare earth metal though. i do wonder if once we convert more of the planet to ev if the price will end up skyrocketing on those metals as well as becoming even more limited in supply. not to mention copper prices.

i'm not entirely convinced that a full transition can ever happen due to resource availability, but that's a long ways off yet.

There are numerous reports addressing that very issue; all we're doing is trading one issue for another. It doesn't mean we shouldn't be transitioning away from fossil fuels, but it's not going to be without its own problems. Between materials costs and infrastructure gaps, I think we'll see more delays on moving away from ICE than some of the current legislation is demanding.

Also, that tech is old enough not to be affected by the chip shortage.



(mostly /sarc)

Hmm. Oil supply and demand is fickle (particularly when you have market manipulation with opec), but we know that when demand plummeted during covid the prices went down.

No-one might be selling oil burners in the future (at least civilian passenger ones), but those sheikh's will be trying very hard to sell as much as they can.

Different scenario. There were still millions and millions of cars on the road that would need gas eventually.

For a better example during current conditions look at the price of things such as 100 octane fuels. It is exuberantly expensive since so few need or buy it. It doesn't cost any more to produce, deliver or store so the only reason it cost so much is low volumes.

When there are very few hobby ICE vehicles around nobody will be reducing prices to try and sell more oil. The volume pricing will go away and you will spend hobby prices for every drop of fuel, motor oil, coolant and the other necessities to keep an ICE car running.

Maybe with gas @$100 per gallon I'll finally be motivated to take an actual car to a race track instead of scratching that itch with a simulation. Might be the only place ICE are allowed by then.

Meanwhile, I'll be getting passed on the track by EVs that are being controlled remotely via VR headset. That would make for a nice ironic-ish end of a movie.

except the credits never roll!

Well looking at the current price of anything tells you very little, looking at the price change through changes to supply and demand over time tells you much more.

On top of that the supply/demand of 100 octane fuel is... detached from oil production supply and demand - it has minimal impact on actual oil supply. Demand could go up 100% and it wont impact actual oil production or the wallets of those at OPEC.

You need to work out, and this is why its tricky, if OPEC can price for a future state and survive with very small demand based on those consumers that cannot move away from oil without collapsing the entire business, or is it more profitable to price oil in a way that tries to keep the market larger and more competitive to prevent the market size from tanking very fast.

There will be a minimum amount of customers that need fuel and cannot change to say electric, but that minimal amount will largely be governmental and I'm not sure even if that minimal market will be good for OPEC because its probably going to be small enough for internal governments to support.

So yeah, I'm not so sure a very high fuel price and tiny market is something that is attractive at all to OPEC, and that they may in fact want to continue to saturate the market to delay the reduction of the overall market size.

Of course I could very likely be wrong, this is something that my brain does sizzle a bit thinking about.

In the end those very rich oil countries will be out of luck no matter how much they try. They had a good run but their days are numbered.

Yep. Pretty much.

They’ll still need oil for aviation and shipping though, unless they start using synthetic fuel. Surely that would still be a large volume of oil needed.

Interesting perspective, watch from about 7:30, the first part is more directed at his comments. Still worthwhile watching the whole thing, but if you can’t be a*sed, 7:30 is his facts and arguments.

https://youtu.be/xEKJljhv1Do