COVID Developments and News
 

The previous "Vacci-nation' thread was, understandably and reasonably, closed because it became a cesspool of political mud-slinging. That's a shame.

This is a car forum, not FaceBook. We all (mostly) come here because of our shared interest in the BRZ/86, and cars in general. If someone is really interested in being informed about important developments regarding COVID19 and the pandemic, they should probably be using something else as their primary source of information.

That said, there have been some important scientific findings recently. It might be interesting to some to share factual information (not personal political views) to then further follow up in more detail elsewhere.

To that end, if this thread is allowed to stand (and can remain above being dragged down into partisan mud), here are a few recent major developments that may have bearing on our personal health.

mRNA vaccines have reduced effectiveness against the Delta variant

Recent clinical data from Israel show that several months after vaccination, the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is reduced to about 40% in preventing infection and symptomatic illness, compared with about 95% in newly vaccinated against the original SARS-CoV-2 strain, and 80-88% in newly vaccinated against Delta:

https://www.ynetnews.com/health_scie...icle/s19okqv0u

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....full.pdf+html

The Moderna vaccine is very similar to Pfizer's, and presumably would have very similar effects.

The Pfizer vaccine remains highly effective in preventing serious illness or hospitalization (about 90%) and thus remains a critically important tool in reducing complications, and deaths. But the reduced effectiveness against Delta shows that vaccination alone will not be enough. Other public health measures will be needed if infections and deaths are to be reduced.

Vaccinated individuals may be as contagious as unvaccinated

Studies both by the CDC of the outbreak in Provincetown MA, and the University of Wisconsin, both show that infected vaccinated individuals have similar viral loads to the unvaccinated.

https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.c...f75165.#page=1

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....full.pdf+html

This also implies that asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals can transmit infection:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....full.pdf+html

Need for booster shots

Pfizer presented some data (buried in this presentation) showing that a third dose of their vaccine can increase antibody levels 5-fold in those 18-55, and 11-fold in those 65-85. They estimate a 100-fold increase in Delta neutralization after a third dose:

https://s21.q4cdn.com/317678438/file...arts-FINAL.pdf

As a result, several countries have now started administering third, booster doses of vaccine, starting with the elderly (over 60, which, depressingly, includes me), and immunocompromised: Israel, Germany, U.K., Russia, Hungary, and others.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ne-coronavirus

https://www.axios.com/germany-uk-cov...cdd0906d2.html

Delta variant causes >1,000 times higher viral load

One reason the Delta variant is so highly transmissible, and causes more severe illness, is because it reproduces much more quickly, and to a greater extent, than other strains. Recent studies show that infected individuals have more than 1,000 times the viral load (virions) compared with other strains:

https://virological.org/t/viral-infe...-2-variant/724

In many ways, this makes Delta almost a different disease than we faced before - and with more serious pandemic risks.

Other variants are coming

Delta will not be the last variant we face. Thousands have already been identified, and there are some that appear to show greater risk than Delta in terms of increased vaccine resistance, virulence, and transmissibility. The next threats seem to be Lambda, and B.1.621:

https://www.livescience.com/lambda-c...s-variant.html

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...88754321001798

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1893335.html

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....08.21256619v1

It is inevitable that complete vaccine escape variants will emerge. If we don't take this seriously and implement additional safety measures, more infections and deaths will follow.

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...2-26-july-2021

Natural immunity looks better and better

Which part are you replying this to? That immunity from the mRNA vaccines has dropped for response to Delta?

“It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear, and it absolutely will not stop, EVER, until you are dead!”

It is almost impossible to hold a scientific talk without involving politics. Especially regarding something like COVID, which has become politicized since day one. I have the feeling that this thread is destined to suffer the same fate as the other one.

Except that the immunity from having COVID is less durable and lasts for a shorter length of time than from vaccines, and is even less protective against the Delta variant.

Plus there’s the significant risk of developing long-term health problems from having COVID and developing ‘immunity’ the ‘natural’ way. The last study I saw found that 40% of those infected had long-term health problems, regardless of whether the acute course of infection was asymptomatic, mild, or severe.

The mRNA vaccines are not a perfect magic shield, but are a hell of a lot better than having COVID.

OP posts a well-written, serious post, and people starting trolling in it.

Shows how this thread will wind up going tbh.

My guess is we'll start getting boosters once 80 percent has been fully immunized.

I'm curious how they'll decide when, honestly.

Like do they want to make sure the next booster can protect efficiently against just Delta, Delta+Lambda, etc.

Problem is that variants are probably coming up quickly enough that you can't really win that race.

Rather than trolling in it, scent marking on it is more accurate.

It's the problem with nominally public forums, they're open to the nominal public.

I dont think efficacy is the issue but logistics. I believe the booster is inevitable but they want to minimize confusion and strengthen confidence in the first immunization.

Subject to change like so much else we've heard and may have changed already, but...

"Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time."

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2021/...-boosters.html

Twice now I've had some malady that showed damn near every covid symptom minus the loss of taste and smell and tested negative. Meanwhile at least 7 of my friends have tested positive with minor symptoms. ��

I am with Analogman, none of this is to be taken lightly.

This is not fear mongering, it's information sharing.

The risk of being infected without being vaccinated and the possibility of severe symptoms, hospitalization and or longterm effects is a strong enough repellent IMO. People that knowingly resist vaccination are leaving themselves vulnerable.

No more fighting, insulting or pointing fingers. I for one am sick and tired of restrictions being imposed then lifted then imposed again. This pattern can be avoided with a population well informed and participating in the fight. It really is like a war.

And they expose those who can’t be vaccinated more than necessary!

I'm thinking there's the problem right there.

In before this thread gets shut down like the other 5 or 6 or whatever before it.

I’m guessing page 73.

I think the surge here is peaking. Even when the numbers were going down the last time some local news outlets were switching the numbers around to bait views. 5954 cases became 9554 cases. Yesterday the New York times numbers were over 50k cases for the day. It was actually 16 thousand. A lot of shady reporting going on. Florida is a sunny place for shady people though.

Did they ever?.

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That long? The last thread stoppers are already here so I think you're being liberal in your estimate. It's unfortunate they aren't more self aware, but ignorance combined with arrogance doesn't work in the information age.

I haven't seen it mentioned yet, but wonder if the WHO will get their way with some nations after demanding booster shots stop in the "rich" nations for now. The US has rejected their call for equity.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/04/who-...september.html

Hey!! Careful who you're calling liberal!! :lol: ;)

Airline making vaccinations mandatory for ALL employees.
https://www.cnet.com/health/united-a...be-vaccinated/

That's just good PR, if nothing else. Can't force passengers though.

Lol I'm sure Pil0t won't be one of those, but it would be funny.

Also! Couple things:
1. I'm completely over my "sinus infection"
2. Walked into the grocery store today and saw I was the only NOT wearing a mask like some asshole.
3. Apparently overnight, Austin went into Stage 5 and everyone decided they needed a mask again (hence #2).
4. All of the current hospitalizations in Austin are from UNVACCINATED individuals or those with compromised immune systems.
5. Yes.

So, where do you get the "real" numbers?

This morning the NYT reports 100,199 cases on 5 August 2021. That's an 87% increase over the number reported on the same day last year. You claim NYT are lying and the "real" number of cases is a fraction of that.

What ARE the real numbers? And, what is your source for them?

The Times are pretty transparent about where and how they gather their data and also, pretty good about printing mea culpas when they get something wrong.

You are persistent in promoting these claims. Can and will you substantiate them?

Except some International arrivals. I can see it extended to vacc's or recent negative test required for Domestic travel too.

I have to thank Covid for helping me kick all but 1 form of social media. Today, I made a post on Facebook about not wearing a mask since I didn't get the Stage 5 memo. I'm attacked by both sides for not wearing a mask regardless of vaccine or getting the vaccine. Instead of responding, I felt it was time to ditch Facebook. After 15 years I finally did it. :happyanim:

The CDC has a comprehensive COVID Data Tracker site that hopefully isn't warped by the Confirmation Bias we see all day from so-called transparent sources.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...tatracker-home

The Harvard Business Review describes the pitfalls of trusting data without verification.

https://hbr.org/2020/05/which-covid-...-can-you-trust

Glad you got out before being censored and banned by Facebook.

Considering many of my hobbies seem to be getting banned in California and the internet, I don't talk about them there. Nor do I share my opinions on subjects very often. So I'm not worried about censorship.

The CDC site is useful and, at this time, seems to closely mirror what the NYT is reporting.

The HBR story is well done. One their points that many everywhere seem to miss is the danger of massively disaggregating population data without taking context into account. One of the more contentious discussions on the "dead thread" revolved around just such a question. Often these are not what they seem. If we post a chart or a graph drawn from a reasonably well done study without thoroughly reading and digesting the authors' analysis we can be embarrassingly wrong.

But, how are you gonna know what the "other half" thinks? - :iono:

I have an inkling that all five of the halves are pretty well represented here.

Now as to what the better half thinks, that sometimes remains a mystery no matter what.

I'm honestly happy to be off of it. Ironically enough, it was a handful of snarky comments from left-leaning friends who kept chanting about wearing a mask despite being vaccinated. And how "I should have been the whole time." But those same friends have a strong tendency to post constantly about all of the woke atrocities in our society and blah blah.

What on earth are you into - :confused0068:

Guns, Cars, Gaming Computers, hunting, shooting competitions. You know, things that California hates and that the internet insists on saying are causing all the problems in this world. Well the gaming computers is the latest with Cali's push for efficiency when in sleep mode. lol.

Even after reading the conclusions of valid source data, it's often not enough to overcome Confirmation Bias.

The only people that consistently comment on FB are those that are far left or right. I only use it for memes and to coordinate group activities.