Value of the car in 5 yrs
 

Hi all,

I was just plying with some numbers, and I was wondering: what do you reckon the resale value of a GTS will be in 3 or 5 yrs? I mean everybody wants one NOW but in 5 yrs there will be a flood of them on the market and the price will go down quite a lot.
Or even if I get it now and in say 6 months I sell it with say 10k on the clock. What would be the depreciation rate of this? I reckon it would be somewhere between 10 to 25% depending on the state of the car. I know that in the first year the rate is somewhere around 15-20%.

Also, the GTS will be the most sought after vehicle in my opinion, however I might be wrong given the higher number of GTS orders to dealerships.

Hmmm....

Good luck with this.

Don't forget into account the rate of inflation and also take into account predicted interest rates, as a large number of these cars will be on loan/lease.

Don't foget the factor in a possibily of future natural disasters affecting production and changes to standard spec.

;P

If I stop being a smart ass, I think you can realisticly expect the car to be worth around 65% of its current price in three years. Going by Subaru/Toyota deprecciation rate.

Toyota historically has pretty good resale. not sure about Subaru tho.

it also depends if the car will be sort after. eg. DC2R had pretty good resale, holding 50% value after 8 years and 43% after 10.

at the end of the day it's all about demand/supply.

I guess it is, although it would be interesting to get some figures from Toyota and do a comparison analysis with other models. The problem is that this car is really taping into a different market than say Yaris. I also know it will depend on different other factors (disposable income, etc) and specifics of the market that this car is for, therefore an exact figure is very hard to find.

I reckon the 86 will have pretty good resale value because...

1. In terms of natural competitors it's only one is the mx-5 which is priced ridiculously at $50k. 86 has more power and better fuel economy and is more practical (though it ain't a roadster).

2. It is in short supply - over the next 2.5 years Aus is getting 1500 + 1800 + 1200 = 4500 cars. Last year alone there were about 4000 Golf GTIs sold.

3. Given the waiting list and the positive reviews you know that there is going to be a strong demand for it until something new in the genre comes along.

4. Japanese reliability

If I was to sell my car in 1.5-2 years time - and I think I should be able to get a price maybe $1-2k lower than the equivalent brand new GT model.

And I'd say "Tell him, he's dreamin'" ::D Jokes aside that would be quite good though if the resale value would be somewhere around the sale value of a brand new GT.

Lol but seriously apart from the people that just refuse to buy anything but a new car - I can't see why someone wouldn't want to pay a little less to get soo much more albeit with 20-30K already on the clock.

Yep, depends how much tha "little less" is. that would be one reason. Then is the condition of the car. Then is the year of the car. Then is the stigma of this car. In few years is going to be quite hard to find something that hasn't be trashed around once in a while. This car screams for it, and some will take it to track days and whatnot. Then is the subjective side: can they afford it? Can they resale it later? Etc.
But if that "little less" is say 8-10 k less than one brand new ...then few people will consider it.

Baught my current car at 5 years old, for 25% of its price when new.

Just me theory though, eventually demand for new cars will taper off as the market starts to become saturated. Supply will eventually catch up with demand. Toyota and Subaru will eventually release revised editions with better spec making first gen models slightly more obsolete. Market will be flooded with second hand first gen specs, and second hand pricing must stay competitive to ensure sale. It other words, buying this car new, in my opinion, isnt the most financially viable decision. But if you enjoy it enough like I will, thats all that matters.

You have to take in to consideration the high possibility of other manufacturers joining the fun as well
Toyobaru were the 1st ones to take the plunge, but if others join in, well that's a different ball game as the closest competitor won't be the overpriced mx5 anymore (which isn't a competitor, it's not a coupe)


Il tell you what I tell others, in this country, cars aren't a investment, they are a necessity (due to distances) and a leisure item. As such do not look at it from a monetary return point of view, rather look at it from a fun factor and enjoyment point of view. "how much is next 5 years of fun going to cost me per day/drive and is it worth the smiles and enjoyment?"


For this car, even if resale in 5 years is ~50% (ie 17k) which it could be, it is still worth it because you spent those 5 years with a smile on your face nailing corner after corner ;)

Don't you have relatively easy access to used cars from Japan? If you do and there is a market for this model in Australia, someone will probably start bringing them over for sale. I assume that could hurt resale value.

-Justin

Suby and toyota both have good resale value, but it will drop off the same as any new car does. In 5 years no one will care they were hard to get at release unless they quit making them for some reason.

In 2042 you'll be able to import as many 86s as you want, I doubt resale will be an issue 30yrs from now...

I didn't realize the wait was so long. I had read some Aussie car websites years ago and it just seemed as if relatively recent Japanese gray market machines were easily available.

Is the waiting period a recent change, or were the cars I read about just entirely illegal? Or is it something like we have in the US, where you can only import it if that vehicle wasn't sold in the US (there are still other requirements to bring it in).

-Justin

Off the top of my head it's something like this

1,

Pre 1989 can be imported assuming it meets Aussie standards for that year (easy) + various costs that add up $$

2,

If you live overseas for 12 months and can prove you owned and drove the car during that time you are free to bring it back into the country with you

3,

If it's a car that the manufacturer never had full import licence you are free to import it, not that easy as the car must be complied to be road legal which costs $$

For example you can import Ferrari 360s from 1999-2004 including CS but once landed in aus it must be complied to be able to be road registered and that costs anywhere from $17k to $30k not sure what's current.

So no chance for imported 86s

That seems pretty similar to the rules in the US as well.

On a positive note, your resale values won't be diluted by imports.

-Justin

yea its like the US in that respect the cars cannot be a grey import if the manufacturer specifies it is coming to AUS within a certain amount of time after the unveiling of the car thats how nissan screwed themselves the left the nnouncement to late that the were going to bring in the GTR so the importing companies jumped straight onto that loophole and were able to bring them in, also we dont get as many cars as you guys do over there to be a direct competitor to cars sold locally here so thats a reason the grey imports list may be better than yours.

and yes even after the cars are allowed to be privately imported they have to go through a thourogh compliance before they are allowed to be registered for road use
@Bounce summed it up so much better

I was wondering how they got the GTRs in, funny how more than half of the Ferrari 360s up for sale are all UK imports they've flooded the market and killed it! Sub 100k next year? Yes please!

The correct answer is no one knows.

It used to be 15 years to import a car
Has it changed now to fkn 30!?!?!?

This is what I found,

Only pre1989 build cars and cars on the list below can be imported into Australia, unless you have owned and driven the vehicle overseas for 12 months.

(Note that the old '15 year rule' finished in 2005).


Not sure where I had the 30yr rule from so pre 1989 is 23yrs old at least.

Yeah but the pre 89 has been like that since at Least 04 when I got in to looking at imports (I think) :)
Hmm im gonna have to find some time to freshen up on the import rules, it's been quite a while

you will never be able to import 86s as they made in so no car after 1989 can be imported if its already been sold here EXCEPT for low volume imports (ie. Ferrari 360s) and private imports

its like this... just say i have a local 86

would i be happy if the govt. allowed people to import JDM 86s the same year as mine further depressing prices?

I'm not saying i agree with this but thats the rationale of the govt. and the local car dealers

yeah, sounds about right, no chance for standard 86's. If toyota japan bring out a trd 86 with turbo/SC and it is not a production model sold in australia then yes it can be imported, but getting it complied/import costs is the problem. $$$

Was going to import a st162 GT4 celica as they were never sold in australia. Decided not to. Big mistake, i regretted for years. That changed after I placed my order for the 86.

back on topic... I think resale value should be pretty good.

I bought a 1 year old Aurion with 45,000kms for $20k ... brand new $36k ?

Sports cars tend to hold their value alot more. Especially if waiting lists are as long as 2 years for the GTS !

I dont see the price dropping at all for the next couple of years. And I highly doubt the market will get saturated enough in 5 years to drastically reduce the value of the car.

30 years is right. On the 31st year, 1990 cars are eligible to import.

My missus went with her friend to look for cars today and a salesman at a Mazda dealership had a brz in the used cars section he told her friend she could have it $60k and that she'd be the first in Australia to get one LOL, so going by this in 5 years it'll be touching the million mark lol

Hahaha where was this? Crackup

liverpool

That's the one on carsales.com.au, crap, 60K.......:thumbdown:

lol if the car is in mazdas USED car lot, then she deffs wont be the 1st one right? (just going of that crap logic)
more importantly, if this is in the used car lot, WHO THE FUCK TRADED ONE IN???

thats what i was thinking but when when i met up with them just before they told me there was a subaru dealership next door:iono: either way the guy was a douche