High value modern classics... who knew?
 

Bloomberg says our cars will become high value classics in 30 years.

http://www.carbuzz.com/news/2017/3/2...ssics-7738447/

They can say all they want. The only way to know will be to wait 30 years. Value goes up and down on classics all the time and it is almost impossible to guess what something will be worth next year much less in 30.

These cars have been made in too great numbers to become high value classics during any of our lifetimes. They might however, be looked at like the old British roadsters are now in that they will turn heads but not be worth all that much money. They'll never be mk4 supra or vintage 911 valuable though, unless people start crashing them in mass numbers.

Take a pile of crashes! The other cars on the list are ones that get bought, parked, maintained, and rarely if ever see the road. That is how they hold/gain value. If you want to try to make money on an 86 you will need too leave it bone stock, never, ever drive it and take meticulous care of it while it sits in a building someplace. One that has every seen the street or has any sort of mileage on it will not go up in value. By the time you pay the upkeep and storage for 30 years you are going to need to sell it for huge $$s just to break even.

I could see the 86 being sought after by a small contingent of enthusiasts that are in love with specific brands/models, (like how some of the BMW, Honda, and other mass produced models are still loved by enthusiasts who are willing to pay higher than normal prices to have a good specimen) but I don't see it becoming an big investment opportunity like typical classic car collectors are after.

If high value means maintains a large percentage of original MSRP then I can see that for ultra-low mileage vehicles only.

Example of my interpretation of high value would be this 1991 MR2 Turbo which sold for $18502 with 55,770 miles on the Bringatrailer Auctions.

1991 Toyota MR2 Turbo 55,770 miles

That's not even what I'd considered ultra-low mileage but to compare, dealerships are selling 2013 FR-S with around 30k miles for that price.

For comparison, a bone stock Nissan 240sx with the equivalent mileage (53k) didn't even meet the auction reserve at $7900.

1989 Nissan 240sx 53k Miles

I see these cars being in line with NA 300zx/240sx used value. Not great, but not terrible like the RX8.

it will be in the same boat as the S13/240SX, most examples will be cheap but the few unmolested ones will retain a solid value

It will be illegal to drive on public roads in 30 years and probably much sooner. So it doesn't really matter. This autonomous car business will be one of those paradigm shifts.

I doubt that will happen completely you would have to fully transform our infrastructure which our country can't even afford to fix bridges nor fix our traffic problems. Demolition Man future ain't happening anytime soon my friend.

Shenanigans, this 1970 911E was advertised as having 98k miles, WITH a rollover, so a nearly 200k mile car sold for $53k 4 days ago. A mass produced, run of the mill model at that.

http://bringatrailer.com/listing/1970-porsche-911e/

There were twice as many long hood 911's produced than Scion FR-S
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/porsc...tion-data.html

Will it beat the stock market, a basic retirement savings account, or a house in a good neighborhood? Fuck no. Will you be negative accounting for running costs? Absolutely.

@Veloist I think you're right, in 20-30 years, the average well taken care of but regularly used 86 will be worth peanuts, just like 924/944, MR2's, 240sx's, RX-7's, MX-5's, 300ZX's, E30's, etc. are right now. But imo these value propositions are on a longer scale, things don't start to swing up until a car is past the 40 year old mark. Well kept NA Miata's and E36 M3's are creeping up past $10k if they have the right option package, the only way they slip back to <$5k for nice ones (like they were not too long ago) is if we have another economic meltdown.

And who knows, we could all be scraping by looking like a 2nd world country by then, or decadently basking in the utopia of our creation, frittering away millions on toys like a 'classic sports car'.

Let me know when they finally ban horse and carriage off public roads, then we can know that in about 80 years we'll have to start worrying.

Yes autonomous cars are happening, yes they will be ubiquitous within our lifespan (the younger of us anyway), but North America is a very large continent with lots of open space to traverse and a long way to go towards giving each citizen an autonomous transportation pod, let alone even adequately maintaining the infrastructure we have today. Maybe the old 'self drivers' will not be allowed on the latest and greatest super highway or high speed lanes, but there will be plenty of open backroads until the day I die.

Ya I should have been more clear. They will not go up far enough to be a "High value" car.


Ya, if you search enough you can find examples of any car that went for more than the norm. I can find high mileage 60 Chevy sedans that go for big bucks as well. That doesn't mean they all are that value.


If you calculate the inflation on the purchase price I bet if you owned that car since new you would lose money on that sale.

1969 Car and Driver test of the entire Porsche lineup has it 'as tested' at $7736, base price would be $7195.

http://media.caranddriver.com/files/...s-mar-1969.pdf

http://www.caranddriver.com/comparis...omparison-test

Which according to this calculator $7.7k in '69 is $51k in today's money:
https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc...969&year2=2017

You'd lose money accounting for running costs, but not on raw price of the car itself.

The real base model 912 was tested at $5.7k, which would be ~$38k in today's dollars, here's two selling for just that with 78k and 108k on the clock:
http://bringatrailer.com/listing/1969-porsche-912-6/
http://bringatrailer.com/listing/196...2-soft-window/

And here's one selling for much less:
http://bringatrailer.com/listing/69-porsche-912/

And one for much more:
http://bringatrailer.com/listing/1969-porsche-912-5/


Early 911's are my... interest. But I see these prices reflected in Mustangs and Camaros and even more lowly cars of the era (just like you said, some random Chevy sedan going for $20k+). The early to mid '70s don't seem to have taken off as well as I thought they would have, but to be fair it wasn't a great era. Consequently I think I may be a bit wrong on early '80s cars as well, but I think mid 80's onwards to the mid 90's are going to see a large upswing over the next 10-20 years.

Go back 10 years and say "Man that 15 year old Miata in british racing green is going to be worth over $10k someday" and 95% of everyone would have laughed in your face. But here we are.

http://bringatrailer.com/listing/199...ecial-edition/
http://bringatrailer.com/listing/1991-miata-se/
http://bringatrailer.com/listing/199...-racing-green/
http://bringatrailer.com/listing/199...-mx-5-miata-2/

Ummmm I think we are both saying the same thing. If we say that in 30 years a 2017 86 will fetch $60K but account for inflation and cost of upkeep then it isn't exactly a "high value" car. I am not arguing they may have some value I just dispute the "high value" term being thrown around. And again the lower the mileage and better the condition the more they will bring in. You show that clearing with the cars you linked.


IF the cars do go up in value the only way you will get top dollar is with one with vey few miles.


I spent 16 hours watching the last Barrett Jackson action and was amazed at how the bottom has dropped out of some of the collectable cars. Newer mustangs were going for top dollar but old Vettes were being practically given away. The same thing can happen to any car as they seem to go in cycles. Next year at this time the same cars you linked could be half or triple those prices. To make the prediction that the 86 will command top dollar is pretty brave.

If they star the 86 in "Fast & Furious 67" then the value will rise.

Guns are for shootin', wine is for drinkin', cigars are for smokin' and cars are for drivin'!

And they are all poor investments.

I agree with all except guns, being an avid collector, I've seen many guns go up in value due to legislation bans or limited production quantities.

:threadjacked:

Change that to 50 years and we're on the same page entirely.

:drinking:

I disagreed with the thought that any car that gets driven or is mass produced is instantly worth significantly less than the "crazy" prices seen on the cars that are called 'collectible' these days.

$60k+ for the right 911 or Mustang seems like a bargain to some, but most laugh and recall when they were <$10k sticker new or that time a buddy tried to sell theirs for $500.

There will be a day when most people look at used 86 prices and balk, and I think that's a pretty damn safe bet. Hell, many did that when they were new. Top dollar is subjective, but I think the same kind of prices we see in desirable sports cars from the 60's is not unreasonable.

:bonk:

Haha, I agree with this statement...

The article is talking about top value collectable cars not reasonably priced old driver cars. Those are the ones where low mileage or reduced numbers do indeed make a big difference. Cars that have more mileage ARE significantly cheaper. That is an indisputable fact and can not be debated. If you have two identical 1970 911s and one has 200K and one has 2K do you really expect them to go for the same money?


Those that laugh and recall they had a $10K sticker new also were around and know that they couldn't afford that since it was the same as $50K now. To look just at the price of the car separate it seems like they were cheap but when looking at the big picture you need to know they were not. The reason that many collectable cars are so valuable now is that the people that lusted after them back when new could not afford them but now they can even though the prices can be way above sticker. You also nailed the wording when you said "the right Mustang or 911" since they don't all go for big bucks only the best.


Many of the cars I sold of for a couple of hundred bucks are now worth decent money even if in the same well worn condition they were in when I sold them.

Well, I, uh..own...a few. :)And they do tend to hold their value better than most things. But again, the only important collector items are NIB, unfired.

Some years ago, I bought a 1st gen Ruger Vaquero, 45LC, 5 in barrel, thinking I would keep it as a NIB collectible. But after about a month, I decided it would be more fun to shoot it.

i think we should just look at the miata and ae86 as the strongest indicators. not really reasonable to look at icons like p cars and mustangs. its an entry level sports car.

I think our cars have potential for more value, even more so for the FRS as it was only in production as the FRS for 4 years or something. And people will crash and wreck these things. The ones that survive in 30 years could be of good value. I have intent to drive mine though, so if it wrecks, then so be it

"Chasing speed with patience"

You know that you're an asshole, right? Every time you post something like this, it forces me to take a look at some cars that I have some fire in my loins for and I know that one of these days, my self control will not be there.

30 years is quite a long time...human being might not even exist by then....

Best way to make money on an older car is to flip it reasonably quickly.

Notice on BringaTrailer, how many cars are sold by either individuals or dealers, after they've owned a car briefly, up to two years only.

Buy a car at an estate sale, or from children of someone recently deceased, get a real deal, resell it to make money now.

Ahhhh to be young and think that 30 years is a "long time" again. I have underwear that is older than 30 years.

Ya, I reckon they will last a long time ....... if you don't wash them very often ..... :bellyroll:


humfrz

...or wear them

Quite a lot of factors can determine future resale value, but for sure having a starring role in any popular car film or TV series is a guarantee to shoot its popular beyond imaginable. Imagine going back to 1985 and saying the Corolla GT-S is the only Toyota sports car from that lineup that will still be worth something despite being 30 years old and that the MR2, Celica and Supra won't be worth as much in comparison, they'd think you're mad.

Resale is all about desirability. If your car is desirable, then people are willing to pay more for it. Who knows, maybe the twins won't be worth much but simply leaving them stock ends up being a desirable trait and because of how few stock units remain by that time, that could raise the value. Perhaps by that period of time, this sort of sports car is dead and thus the desirability of existing units go up in value because automakers won't make any modern replacements. Of course this is merely just musing.

Do you have the patience and can withstand the allure of all future new cars to find out? I probably can, I rarely change cars.

Just do what I do and have no money.

:cry:

:eyebulge: .........:iono:


humfrz

That's when you can justify buying TWO. :thumbup:

You are both just jealous that 30 year old underwear still fits me!

Well, OK .... you got us there ...... :bow:


humfrz

I kept my last car for 20 years, and when I bought my 2014 I bought it with the intention of keeping it for 20 years. So..... I'll check back in around 2037 and let everyone know if my lil orange whip still has value :D

In 2047 I'll be almost 80 so it'll be a just fer looking at car by that time LOL