August 2016

US
FRS: 638
BRZ: 302

Canada
FRS: 80
BRZ: 53

If people wanted to miss out on the car for a reason that dumb let them

Sales numbers are up for the month of September. The FRS/86 numbers are combined. So are with the 16,17 BRZ.

Overall looks bad currently, but from my knowledge, it's probably still tough to get the new 86/BRZ so we will see next month if numbers grow.

Overall though, I am still keeping my opinion that sales will just keep going down with the revised 86/BRZ.

https://s12.postimg.org/t9n0tvtel/image.jpg

https://s12.postimg.org/y9kh1tz19/brz.jpg

When supply was tight, the Toybaru was allocated 2:1 to Toyota and Subaru, since Toyota paid for the assembly line at Gunma.

Now that the demand is way down, there should be no problem with supply. I wonder why Toyota and Subaru are still keeping the 2:1 ratio in sales?

Because that was the planned mix. Simple as that. You do not change manufacturing plans with the flip of a switch it can take years. Why do you think they keep building cars that don't sell at all? Hell they were building Aztecs and pretty much scrapping them at the end of the assembly line because the plan said they were going to build them for 3 years.

As I have said many times the number of cars sold data is almost meaningless without knowing the number of cars made. If they made a thousand and sold a thousand then all is good. If they made a thousand and sold ten then there is an issue. They have a team of hundreds of experts that plan out how many they make each month. It is not always the same and is far from random.
As long as there isn't a hidden yard with rows and rows of unsold cars someplace th n things are not as bleak as the sales numbers alone may appear. If there is such a yard the model is screwed.

Here in Europe there is a saying that the original ratio was set to 10:1 and after 2015 it is 5:1. Sales here are roughly around that.

While the ratio of sold to made, and the average time on lot are important stats for automakers, when absolute volume drops below a certain point profitability suffers as certain costs are inelastic with respect to volume even after discounting startup costs. If the refresh does not give sales a nice shot in the arm it's possible Toyota and Subaru might rethink their commitment to a second gen version, depending on where that threshold is.

My prediction for Canada, given the higher cost of the 86 over the base BRZ here this year and the look of the respective facelifts, is that the BRZ will match or possibly even outsell the 86 this model year, provided the volume needed is available to Subaru Canada.

10 9 8 7 6 ... 3 2 1 end of production!

Subaru.
 

Profitability is based on selling the number of units planned and built not necessarily on building more units. I repeat as long as they are making what they planned and selling what they make they are fine with it. Sales numbers are something that far too many people focus on since it seems to show trending. It can be very deceiving wh n viewed on it's own. Specialty cars are never built in massive numbers and never will be. They just are not planned as money makers. If they ever start making the 86 or BRZ in Corolla numbers we can kiss the car as we know it goodbye.

Price aside the 86 will still continue to be sold in greater numbers than the BRZ for a few reasons. Right off the bat Toyota has a much larger dealer base than Subaru. I figured it out to be almost 5 to 1. There is no way Subaru can push enough cars through there dealers to outsell Toyota. The second big thing is that Subaru just does not seem to be interested in selling these things in the first place. They want them to draw people in the door where they can sell them a nice high margin WRX or STi.

Unless people have inside info straight from corporate Toyota there is no need to run around screaming the sky is falling based purely on sales number.

This made me curious so I spent a couple minutes looking.

I couldn't find any worldwide numbers. I could find references to US numbers.

Per Toyota, they have "nearly 1,500 dealerships" in the US. (bottom of page).

I also thought it was interesting that 70% of the cars sold in the US are built here. Didn't realize it was that high.

Per Cars101.com (a Subaru focused site) there are "almost 625" Subaru dealerships in the US.

That's a deceiving ratio though because Toyota has huge dealerships with massive volumes while Subaru tends to be more of a "boutique" dealership with lower volume.

Also, I doubt this ratio of about 2 to 1 carries worldwide. Toyota sold over 10M cars in 2015 worldwide, Subaru, who has been on fire lately in terms of growth, sold less than 1M cars worldwide. (easily available info)

Oh thank god you replied. I reread what I had typed and noticed a typo that would have been truely embarrassing. No doubt Toyota wishes they had a 50 to 1 ratio of dealers like i wrote the first time around.

Toyota may have paid for the tooling or modifications, but the twins run down the same line as several other subarus. That line already existed.



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US sales figures first half 2016 Small Sports car segment:

http://i68.tinypic.com/23u6arn.png


Source: http://left-lane.com/us-sales-first-...ports-segment/