Covid 19 origin(s)

[Spuds]

Originally Posted by weederr33

What about the kouki vs zenki models of COVID? I heard there's an increase in the compression ratio?

You mean the zenkivirus?

[TylerLieberman]

Originally Posted by weederr33

What about the kouki vs zenki models of COVID? I heard there's an increase in the compression ratio?

Well 9 times out of 10, the kouki model is better.

Soooo I don't know if that's good news or bad news lol

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Atmo

If the virus origins are eventually shown to confirm the lab leak theory, China must be held to account. Reparations seems like a good first step. But, it's going to be hard to prove without the full cooperation and transparency of China that's so far missing.

"The trouble with this hypothesis is that Chinese researchers have not succeeded in finding a “direct progenitor” of this virus in any animal they’ve looked at. Liang said China had tested 50,000 animal specimens, including 1,100 bats in Hubei province, where Wuhan is located. But no luck: a matching virus still hasn’t been found."

https://www.technologyreview.com/202...-origin-wuhan/

Reparations paid to whom? To all countries?

Unlike war, where loss of lives and where damage to land and property is more easily measurable, I don't think this will be so easy to measure. Moreover, it is well discussed how WWII, for example, helped get the world out of the Great Depression. While this point is heavily debated by economists, the argument that conflict and catastrophe is good for business has a historical basis.




In fact, the GDP, as one metric, doesn't look so bad, so how would reparations be calculated? Every country chose how to respond to this pandemic. The response of each country determined how many died. South Korea had 41 deaths per million, and Japan had 121 deaths per million, and the US had 1,902 deaths per million, and the UK had 1,909 deaths per million. Should the US get more reparations because more died, or was that their fault? If the US is at fault for allowing more cases to occur, and subsequent contact tracing could show that US citizens spread the virus to more of the rest of the world and caused more subsequent deaths in other countries, then should the US also pay reparations to the rest of the world for their role in this pandemic?

At worst, I could see China paying an international fine that goes to the WHO or something for use in humanitarian projects around the world, or maybe it would be used to fund vaccine research for booster shots or for vaccine production and delivery for poorer nations. Outside of that, reparations just seems like a dead end.

[Atmo]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Reparations paid to whom? To all countries?

As I said, should the evidence prove that China is culpable as they were in 2003 with SARS then yes, let individual nations determine damages both monetary and punitive.

For the US, that means formation through an Act of Congress of a non-partisan commission with power to subpoena data, documents and witnesses with no exceptions. That means no WHO. Instead, select experts from fields with special expertise like doctors, researchers, scientists, economists, intel chiefs and others without conflicts of interest.

With millions dead worldwide and billions of American taxpayer dollars diverted into Operation Warp Speed, if China is found to be the source they should pay directly to the US Treasury and through ongoing tariffs, plus confiscation of their US based assets should be on the table.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Atmo

As I said, should the evidence prove that China is culpable as they were in 2003 with SARS then yes, let individual nations determine damages both monetary and punitive.

For the US, that means formation through an Act of Congress of a non-partisan commission with power to subpoena data, documents and witnesses with no exceptions. That means no WHO. Instead, select experts from fields with special expertise like doctors, researchers, scientists, economists, intel chiefs and others without conflicts of interest.

With millions dead worldwide and billions of American taxpayer dollars diverted into Operation Warp Speed, if China is found to be the source they should pay directly and through tariffs, and confiscation of US based assets should be on the table.

You just missed the whole point of my post.

If the commission found that the US was just or more culpable than China in the outcomes of this pandemic then are you also in agreement that the US should pay reparations to other countries?

If economists found out that investments made in Operation Warp Speed and in vaccine production and delivery actually stimulated the economy, resulting in a net gain, then would that absolve China from needing to pay or should they be thanked or rewarded? If economists find that tariffs and retaliatory tariffs only hurt the economy and drum up more tensions then is it worth pursing these things, especially if the fault was accidental or negligence?

China's CDC contacted the WHO within weeks of patient zero versus 2-3 months for SARS 2003. It would be hard to even move from patient zero to actually acknowledging an event like this in a shorter time. At worst, notification could have been better by maybe a week, maybe.

I just think this is a dead end issue.

This study reviewed standard international trade theories as they pertain to the impact of trade restrictions. Current empirical studies were reviewed to see whether evidence supports trade theory predictions. Conventional price impacts in standard models of international trade show that trade restrictions are detrimental for trade for both countries involved, and the empirical evidence from current studies confirmed this. The current tit-for-tat tariff escalation between China and the United States has led to, among other things, increased domestic prices to both American consumers and producers; lower export prices to some of the Chinese exporters and American firms based in China; reduced import and export trade between the two countries that would lead to costly adjustments in supply chains; loss in net welfare and employment; and loss in competitive advantage to firms in both countries that produce for export. Therefore, efforts should be made to de-escalate these trade tensions.

https://www.researchgate.net/publica...Both_Countries

[Atmo]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

I just think this is a dead end issue.

I don't, and think you mention some controversial issues worth exploring.

Your hypothetical suggesting that if there is US complicity in COVID creation and distribution whether reparations are in order I think is valid. Except the only connection I've read about is the secret funneling of US taxpayer cash through an intermediary by Dr. Fauci to the Wuhan lab for GOF research so it isn't a systemic policy, but a rogue individual who should be held accountable, probably criminally.

Comparing Operation Warp Speed and in your prior post war as in some way beneficial to economic growth is questionable if you personalize it. What other productive use would those same resources create without loss of life and property, like yours?

Worrying about tariffs that "drum up more tensions" approaches the problem of accountability from weakness. There are already thousands of tariffs across the board going both ways between the US and take your pick of other nations. Additional focused tariffs will drive the point home that despite what the Chinese are claiming, that COVID originated in the US, should the evidence prove otherwise they will be held to account, tariffs being one way.

Honestly, I'm surprised with your post given what you see daily in a hospital treating COVID patients. It seems so clinical given the distress faced by families of loved ones killed by COVID so yes, you could call it a dead end issue.

[wbradley]

Originally Posted by serialk11r

This is why I bought my Aston Martin. I figure the world is coming to an end, so I might as well enjoy a gas guzzling exotic car while I can XD

Did you see a grey 2011 DB9 V12 for sale in Scottsdale? Brother in law traded for a Ferrari Portofino in March. He thought the tranny was about to demand an expensive repair. Better you didn't buy that one!

Back to OT.

China should pay reparations to the US? Yeah OK.

[serialk11r]

Originally Posted by wbradley

Did you see a grey 2011 DB9 V12 for sale in Scottsdale? Brother in law traded for a Ferrari Portofino in March. He thought the tranny was about to demand an expensive repair. Better you didn't buy that one!

Back to OT.

China should pay reparations to the US? Yeah OK.

Nah I bought a 2006 V8 Vantage. So far, the parking sensors are slightly wonky and I spent several hours replacing the alarm module by guessing which Ford/Volvo part it was because it's not made anymore (bought a used part off a Volvo, opened it up to confirm the circuitry was the same, soldered in a new battery).

Reparations...lol. There are three ways this goes:

1. The CIA produces convincing evidence there was a cover up (I think they're bluffing), massive economic damage to China ensues from market forces
2. They can't produce evidence but the morons in Congress try to sanction China anyways. US economy receives brunt of damage.
3. Nothing happens, life carries on (this is what the market is expecting).

If you are SURE that there was a covered up lab leak and the intelligence agencies are going to come up with proof any minute now, you should become extremely rich very quickly. Go buy some puts on long term Chinese bonds, or short the CNH/USD pair with high leverage.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Atmo

I don't, and think you mention some controversial issues worth exploring.

Your hypothetical suggesting that if there is US complicity in COVID creation and distribution whether reparations are in order I think is valid. Except the only connection I've read about is the secret funneling of US taxpayer cash through an intermediary by Dr. Fauci to the Wuhan lab for GOF research so it isn't a systemic policy, but a rogue individual who should be held accountable, probably criminally.

Just so we are clear, I am not suggesting the US is complicit in the origins of COVID, but I am saying, if it is shown through contact tracing that the poor response to the pandemic from US policies and poor compliance by US citizens has lead to a large number of cases here, which subsequently has spread to other countries, which led to financial losses and loss of lives in those countries, then should the US pay reparations for their part in the damage to those countries? Like if China initiates a crash, but then the US is stupid drunk and fails to apply their brakes and subsequently just idly watches as their car rolls down a hill and hits twenty other cars, then is China to blame for the entirety of the damage or just the initial fender bender?

Originally Posted by Atmo

Comparing Operation Warp Speed and in your prior post war as in some way beneficial to economic growth is questionable if you personalize it. What other productive use would those same resources create without loss of life and property, like yours?

This is the difference between criminal and civil lawsuits, or specifically, awarding punitive damages. I don't believe China is likely to meet the definition of an international crime. They would meet the definition of a civil case where potentially there was negligence. Quantifying the punitive damages is going to be hard, and like I said above, for many countries, the punitive damages are far less than the US because their response was far better, so in many ways, the resulting reparations are likely to be much smaller and based on this lowest denominator. How would you measure the punitive damages?

Originally Posted by Atmo

Worrying about tariffs that "drum up more tensions" approaches the problem of accountability from weakness. There are already thousands of tariffs across the board going both ways between the US and take your pick of other nations. Additional focused tariffs will drive the point home that despite what the Chinese are claiming, that COVID originated in the US, should the evidence prove otherwise they will be held to account, tariffs being one way.

Again, look at the study I provided previously on the tit-for-tat tariffs. US tariffs on Chinese exports has hurt US businesses. We make a lot of products in China, so when we create or raise tariffs, it is the US citizens who just pay the price at the point of sale when prices go up. Moreover, when China retaliates with tariffs on US exports, like what happened to US farmers, we just move money from tariff proceeds to bailouts (see below). We don't need more tension that just hurts both economies and raises prices on goods leading to more inflation.

https://www.cfr.org/blog/92-percent-...-angry-farmers

Originally Posted by Atmo

Honestly, I'm surprised with your post given what you see daily in a hospital treating COVID patients. It seems so clinical given the distress faced by families of loved ones killed by COVID so yes, you could call it a dead end issue.

I tend to evaluate my own actions before I look to point the blame at others. In that light, the US has managed this pandemic poorly at the individual level, but mostly, at the government level. The contrast with other countries bares this out. Again, the US is the drunk driver who failed to stop the car after getting bumped off the hill.

If it was discovered that China developed the virus and released it on its own people with the intent of hurting its own people and hurting the world then that would be a different story, but we don't have evidence of this, and there is little reason to think such a thing is even remotely likely. What is far, far more likely is that there was an accident or negligence. An accident or negligence could have happened in the handling of samples collected remotely from livestock or wild animals, for instance. Does either of those absolve China? No. A fender bender accident is still an incident where someone is at fault.

Where we differ is I see the crash as a fender bender irregardless of what comes after. You seem to see whatever comes after as inherently the fault of the initial accident. Whether we are talking about a drunk driver failing to stop after getting pushed down the hill, or we are talking about bumping into a car carrying $50k in bottles of Cristal that was destroyed, I see only the initial fault: someone bumped a car. Am I making sense with the analogies? It comes down to personal responsibility. The more time we spend trying to blame China for our failures, the less time we spend learning from our mistakes.

[Capt Spaulding]

Originally Posted by serialk11r

Nah I bought a 2006 V8 Vantage. So far, the parking sensors are slightly wonky and I spent several hours replacing the alarm module by guessing which Ford/Volvo part it was because it's not made anymore (bought a used part off a Volvo, opened it up to confirm the circuitry was the same, soldered in a new battery).

Reparations...lol. There are three ways this goes:

1. The CIA produces convincing evidence there was a cover up (I think they're bluffing), massive economic damage to China ensues from market forces
2. They can't produce evidence but the morons in Congress try to sanction China anyways. US economy receives brunt of damage.
3. Nothing happens, life carries on (this is what the market is expecting).

If you are SURE that there was a covered up lab leak and the intelligence agencies are going to come up with proof any minute now, you should become extremely rich very quickly. Go buy some puts on long term Chinese bonds, or short the CNH/USD pair with high leverage.

LOL This is the acid test of certainty. I'm not holding my breath for it to happen.

[Lantanafrs2]

Covid probably won't go away. According to our former cdc director its been engineered to be more infectious. I know that's not possible because you guys still think it came from a spoiled bat sandwich but maybe you're wrong? God forbid. Anyways, its created an industry and thus will be with us for awhile.

[Atmo]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Just so we are clear, I am not suggesting the US is complicit in the origins of COVID, but I am saying, if it is shown through contact tracing that the poor response to the pandemic from US policies and poor compliance by US citizens has lead to a large number of cases here, which subsequently has spread to other countries, which led to financial losses and loss of lives in those countries, then should the US pay reparations for their part in the damage to those countries? Like if China initiates a crash, but then the US is stupid drunk and fails to apply their brakes and subsequently just idly watches as their car rolls down a hill and hits twenty other cars, then is China to blame for the entirety of the damage or just the initial fender bender?

That sounds like blaming the victims. From what we've seen so far, there was more than likely only one source of the pandemic, Wuhan. Whether accidental or intentional shouldn't matter for reparations but would for criminal proceedings. Two interviews of a Wuhan virologist turned whistleblower who worked in the lab during the virus creation then defected to the US and is in witness protection are shocking. Dr. Li-Meng Yan (Bat Woman) lays out the case that the virus was engineered and weaponized with the intent to harm others.

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6191134384001#sp=show-clips

This is the difference between criminal and civil lawsuits, or specifically, awarding punitive damages. I don't believe China is likely to meet the definition of an international crime. They would meet the definition of a civil case where potentially there was negligence. Quantifying the punitive damages is going to be hard, and like I said above, for many countries, the punitive damages are far less than the US because their response was far better, so in many ways, the resulting reparations are likely to be much smaller and based on this lowest denominator. How would you measure the punitive damages?

If China is found culpable, punitive penalties could be assessed by whatever justice system exists in the affected nations. For the US, that would probably mean relying on a judge and/or jury. Damage judgements could reference the findings of a 9/11 style commission.

Again, look at the study I provided previously on the tit-for-tat tariffs. US tariffs on Chinese exports has hurt US businesses. We make a lot of products in China, so when we create or raise tariffs, it is the US citizens who just pay the price at the point of sale when prices go up. Moreover, when China retaliates with tariffs on US exports, like what happened to US farmers, we just move money from tariff proceeds to bailouts (see below). We don't need more tension that just hurts both economies and raises prices on goods leading to more inflation.

https://www.cfr.org/blog/92-percent-...-angry-farmers

I'm against tariffs affecting allies. That excludes China. The US has one of the lowest tariff structures in the world, half that of China. Would it be a bad thing to bring back more manufacturing to the US? If China implements retaliatory tariffs, they have more to lose than us, like confiscation of their US based assets including farmland.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...tions-history/

I tend to evaluate my own actions before I look to point the blame at others. In that light, the US has managed this pandemic poorly at the individual level, but mostly, at the government level. The contrast with other countries bares this out. Again, the US is the drunk driver who failed to stop the car after getting bumped off the hill.

If it was discovered that China developed the virus and released it on its own people with the intent of hurting its own people and hurting the world then that would be a different story, but we don't have evidence of this, and there is little reason to think such a thing is even remotely likely. What is far, far more likely is that there was an accident or negligence. An accident or negligence could have happened in the handling of samples collected remotely from livestock or wild animals, for instance. Does either of those absolve China? No. A fender bender accident is still an incident where someone is at fault.

Where we differ is I see the crash as a fender bender irregardless of what comes after. You seem to see whatever comes after as inherently the fault of the initial accident. Whether we are talking about a drunk driver failing to stop after getting pushed down the hill, or we are talking about bumping into a car carrying $50k in bottles of Cristal that was destroyed, I see only the initial fault: someone bumped a car. Am I making sense with the analogies? It comes down to personal responsibility. The more time we spend trying to blame China for our failures, the less time we spend learning from our mistakes.

I haven't heard of a single instance of wild COVID-19 being found in China that was verified by independent investigators. We can only rely on their reports. Maybe they're not covering up but they're not transparent about much and when they claim to be, it generates more questions than answers.

We need to get to the bottom of this and not with phony 90 day investigations by some of the bad actors involved.

[weederr33]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

Covid probably won't go away. According to our former cdc director its been engineered to be more infectious. I know that's not possible because you guys still think it came from a spoiled bat sandwich but maybe you're wrong? God forbid. Anyways, its created an industry and thus will be with us for awhile.

Still not sure why you keep perpetuating this nonsense

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

Covid probably won't go away. According to our former cdc director its been engineered to be more infectious. I know that's not possible because you guys still think it came from a spoiled bat sandwich but maybe you're wrong? God forbid. Anyways, its created an industry and thus will be with us for awhile.

If it was engineered then it was engineered for what intent? Are you saying we are dealing with a Mission Impossible 2, where it was engineered for money, or are you saying it is a V for Vendetta scenario, where it was engineered to attain control or power? Because money has been made or moved around, it isn't evidence of the former, and because we have had limitations and mandates and cautions, it isn't evidence of the latter, so I am curious of what do you believe to know?

The vaccine is 99% effective at preventing hospitalizations and death. Booster shots will likely be needed like the seasonal flu vaccine. Boosters will boost immunity and also cover new, emerging variants. Assuming the world all gets vaccinated, mutation rates are likely to drop. Viral loads are said to be similar from vaccinated to unvaccinated and symptomatic to asymptomatic, but the fact is the symptomatic and severely symptomatic are far more likely to be coughing, sneezing and breathing hard, yet they are easier to identify and isolate, which is why SARS-COV-1 was ultimately stopped. That, and SARS-COV-1 seems to survive less in warmer climates, making it more similar to the flu in that respect; ie, that is, something that comes in the winter and leaves in the summer. But, there may be hope that once we get vaccinations to a high level that transmission rates will drop, and then emergent variants/mutation rates will dramatically slow. We will have to see.

https://www.news-medical.net/health/...-SARS-CoV.aspx

It could be with us forever, especially if our food and pets are just as likely carriers. In the long term, it might not be a big deal. If deaths and hospitalizations drop to low, endemic levels then it will be manageable. Obviously, countries can manage the case and death rate well if they want. For instance, S. Korea has had 213k cases and 2k deaths at 50 million people, so that is a US population equivalent of 1.4 million cases and 13k deaths, which has 37 million cases and 600k deaths. Once people are vaccinated, I doubt if many places will see very many deaths if the people choose to take appropriate precautions when they do feel ill like wear a mask in public spaces like other countries.