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Old 11-09-2019, 01:20 AM   #99
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That's not how it really works...electric motors are very well understood, anyone can hire a few electrical engineers to design all the stuff. Elon Musk has been making very good moves, first using induction motors, then reluctance motors, but now everyone else is going to copy.

In the longer run, aluminum or magnesium ion will replace lithium ion battery chemistry since they have inherently higher energy density. When the first experimental next-gen batteries become viable, the playing field will be completely level between Tesla and everyone else. That's when the big car makers are going to invest in big battery plants, and Tesla's drivetrain advantage will evaporate.

Their best asset right now is Autopilot. I don't expect that advantage to hold much longer either.
Exactly, all the manufacturers will catch up. It isnít a matter of if but when, just like how all manufacturers are similar enough as it pertains to ICEs. This is Teslaís mission statement, ďto accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.Ē

Teslaís approach to Autopilot isnít special. In fact, Geohot (the hacker) created a company to retrofit an autonomous system to cars before them (pretty sure), and his idea was to use computer learning. Considering how fast Tesla has been able to (almost exponentially) build their neural computer network, I can only imagine it will be replicated soon enough.
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Old 11-09-2019, 07:07 AM   #100
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That's not how it really works...electric motors are very well understood, anyone can hire a few electrical engineers to design all the stuff. Elon Musk has been making very good moves, first using induction motors, then reluctance motors, but now everyone else is going to copy.

In the longer run, aluminum or magnesium ion will replace lithium ion battery chemistry since they have inherently higher energy density. When the first experimental next-gen batteries become viable, the playing field will be completely level between Tesla and everyone else. That's when the big car makers are going to invest in big battery plants, and Tesla's drivetrain advantage will evaporate.

Their best asset right now is Autopilot. I don't expect that advantage to hold much longer either.
Battery technology is the bottleneck not the drivetrain. And the next gen battery technology cannot be developed with hiring a couple engineers; it is big investment and hard research. The progress in battery technology will be the next revolution. Check Tesla acquisitions and investments. When the next generation comes, which is soon, only the other companies that made the similar effort can probably be at the same level with Tesla. The others will pay for the license or buy the battery.
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Old 11-09-2019, 03:02 PM   #101
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Check Tesla acquisitions and investments. When the next generation comes, which is soon, only the other companies that made the similar effort can probably be at the same level with Tesla. The others will pay for the license or buy the battery.
Next generation is not soon, because next generation is not lithium based, or at least it's going to be drastically different from the iron phosphate or titanate we use now.

Tesla's current investments are going to be leapfrogged. When some lab manages to produce a cost effective and reliable aluminum ion cell that exceeds the best lithium ion in performance and durability, you'll see many companies jump on it with massive investments, and Tesla will not have much of an advantage.

Aluminum ion cells in research have gotten over 3MJ/kg, can charge in a few minutes, and have lithium titanate like cycle life. That'll be the game changer IMO, because then there will be no reason to buy a gasoline powered car at all.

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Old 11-09-2019, 05:42 PM   #102
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Imo the progression of electric will be similar to what has been occurring with rc toys
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Old 11-09-2019, 07:42 PM   #103
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Imo the progression of electric will be similar to what has been occurring with rc toys
Enlighten us. I donít understand the reference.
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Old 11-09-2019, 08:31 PM   #104
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Or we could just use inductive roadways to charge vehicles as they go...

Best of all worlds, but car companies can't charge customers for that work (puns intended), so noone markets that idea.

Point is, there are far better ways to solve "clean" transportation problems than dumping money into batteries.
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Old 11-09-2019, 09:06 PM   #105
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Or we could just use inductive roadways to charge vehicles as they go...

Best of all worlds, but car companies can't charge customers for that work (puns intended), so noone markets that idea.

Point is, there are far better ways to solve "clean" transportation problems than dumping money into batteries.
That would be a lot of retrofitting and would likely happen only after mass adoption. I could foresee problems if the system lost power from a failure (internal) or from damage (external).

Whatís wrong with batteries?
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Old 11-09-2019, 09:32 PM   #106
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Enlighten us. I donít understand the reference.
Rc cars and boats are predominantly electric now and outperform their nitro powered counterparts handily
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Old 11-09-2019, 09:41 PM   #107
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That would be a lot of retrofitting and would likely happen only after mass adoption. I could foresee problems if the system lost power from a failure (internal) or from damage (external).

Whatís wrong with batteries?
One could say the same thing about infrastructure for fast charging. Battery EVs work now because they are relatively uncommon. I don't think the current system scales well. Chemical batteries were the convenient solution, but we should be spending more effort on a real solution. It's like telling people that if you really want to combat climate change, you should stop eating meat and stop buying new heavy industry products (like cars).

Batteries are heavy, delicate, expensive, and heavy. Heavier vehicles, in addition to the kinetic energy equation, need heavier structures, which require more energy to make. Also, the maximum output of batteries is usually a percentage of the capacity/time. So you can no longer have a sports car. You either have a big heavy muscle car or an economy car. Most people won't care, but I do.
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Old 11-09-2019, 09:47 PM   #108
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Dude you understand how inductive charging works right? No. F***ing. Way. It. Will. Ever. Happen.

It's like turning every single road into a maglev track expensive, and the charging speed probably won't cut it.
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Old 11-09-2019, 10:06 PM   #109
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Dude you understand how inductive charging works right? No. F***ing. Way. It. Will. Ever. Happen.

It's like turning every single road into a maglev track expensive, and the charging speed probably won't cut it.
Of course it or anything like it won't ever happen. Nobody makes a profit from it outside of road construction contractors, and if they had 1/10th the lobying abilities of the automotive industry I wouldn't have to dodge potholes everywhere I go.

Yes it's expensive, but so are batteries. If you could get basically unlimited range on interstates and such, would you need so much battery? Instead of everyone paying individually for capacity they only use once in a while, wouldn't it be more efficient to make a public pool of capacity you can pay to draw from when you need it?

You don't need to fully charge the cars on the highway, you just need to keep them moving at constant speed.
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Old 11-09-2019, 10:09 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2 View Post
Rc cars and boats are predominantly electric now and outperform their nitro powered counterparts handily
Electric cars already handily outperform their gas powered counterparts in acceleration and at some tracks.

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Or we could just use inductive roadways to charge vehicles as they go...

Best of all worlds, but car companies can't charge customers for that work (puns intended), so noone markets that idea.

Point is, there are far better ways to solve "clean" transportation problems than dumping money into batteries.
O RLY?

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One could say the same thing about infrastructure for fast charging. Battery EVs work now because they are relatively uncommon. I don't think the current system scales well. Chemical batteries were the convenient solution, but we should be spending more effort on a real solution. It's like telling people that if you really want to combat climate change, you should stop eating meat and stop buying new heavy industry products (like cars).

Batteries are heavy, delicate, expensive, and heavy. Heavier vehicles, in addition to the kinetic energy equation, need heavier structures, which require more energy to make. Also, the maximum output of batteries is usually a percentage of the capacity/time. So you can no longer have a sports car. You either have a big heavy muscle car or an economy car. Most people won't care, but I do.
Tell me more...

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Dude you understand how inductive charging works right? No. F***ing. Way. It. Will. Ever. Happen.

It's like turning every single road into a maglev track expensive, and the charging speed probably won't cut it.
Not even close to working.
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Old 11-10-2019, 01:56 AM   #111
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One could say the same thing about infrastructure for fast charging. Battery EVs work now because they are relatively uncommon. I don't think the current system scales well. Chemical batteries were the convenient solution, but we should be spending more effort on a real solution. It's like telling people that if you really want to combat climate change, you should stop eating meat and stop buying new heavy industry products (like cars).

Batteries are heavy, delicate, expensive, and heavy. Heavier vehicles, in addition to the kinetic energy equation, need heavier structures, which require more energy to make. Also, the maximum output of batteries is usually a percentage of the capacity/time. So you can no longer have a sports car. You either have a big heavy muscle car or an economy car. Most people won't care, but I do.
I can see the advantage of what you are saying, and maybe someday there would be a solution to make this a reality after mass adoption.

In the mean time, batteries are working out for most people.

There are advantages to batteries too. They allow for off-roading or going on any road that isnít retrofitted. They will be a great used commodity; used batteries can be swapped into other models if someone wants to trade up or out an old battery for a better used battery like how people do with used engines and trannies, getting something that is used, but with less life. Batteries could be used for home storage or reverse charging by charging a home in replace of owning a Tesla Powerwall. Used batteries could be used for energy storage for businesses where weight and area arenít an issue, so even if it only holds have the charge, it could still be daisy-chained.
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Old 11-10-2019, 03:37 AM   #112
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I can see the advantage of what you are saying, and maybe someday there would be a solution to make this a reality after mass adoption.

In the mean time, batteries are working out for most people.

There are advantages to batteries too. They allow for off-roading or going on any road that isnít retrofitted. They will be a great used commodity; used batteries can be swapped into other models if someone wants to trade up or out an old battery for a better used battery like how people do with used engines and trannies, getting something that is used, but with less life. Batteries could be used for home storage or reverse charging by charging a home in replace of owning a Tesla Powerwall. Used batteries could be used for energy storage for businesses where weight and area arenít an issue, so even if it only holds have the charge, it could still be daisy-chained.
Too many statements. Let the numbering commence.

1. Batteries are currently working out for the small subset of people who buy EVs and who have already determined that EVs fit their lifestyle.

2. Of course you need at least a small onboard energy store for when you aren't on a highway. I figured that was obvious. The original point was that there are other technologies to consider than just batteries.

3a. Used batteries are not and will never be a "great commodity. ". If you need a used car do you A: buy a used car, or B: buy a random fuel tank, buy a car that never was supposed to have that fuel tank in it, and attempt to swap the fuel tank in? Is it A? I think it's A.

3b. Because everyone takes the engine out of their car to be a generator when the power goes out right?

3c. Why would a business ever want used car batteries? Weight and area are always an issue. Space costs money. Maintenance costs money. Disposal costs money. Losses to entropy cost money.
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