brz vs gt86?

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by NoHaveMSG

I will fight you

Who the hell puts Tabasco sauce on a burger in the first place?

[DarkPira7e]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Who the hell puts Tabasco sauce on a burger in the first place?

Thank you for respecting the sauce enough to capitalize its name

[AnalogMan]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Sorry guys.


Just going to copy & paste in all the related threads.


For those of you thinking there are going to be great deals as the dealerships try to get rid of their "excess" inventory. Keep dreamin'!


I have to sit through a two hour meeting on the state of the industry twice a week.

Some FACTS:


There is not a single new car being made right now.
Most companies have not made any for 3 to 6 weeks.
It will be anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks before most are making cars again.
This means someplace between 8 and 12 MILLION less new cars built this year.
The whole industry is at a zero cash flow level.
When production does ramp up again it will be slow and restricted to high demand/volume models to restore cash flow.
Several of the smaller parts suppliers will not survive this which will hamper the start ups even more.
Many of the manufactures should be tooling over to the 2021 models within the next 60 days.
They are trying to decide if they will return to making 2020 models or go straight into the 2021s.
R&D is on hold with every single manufacturer so no new models are being worked on (see cash flow above).
Low volume cars are most certainly DONE for this year and probably for at least two more. IF they come back at all.
The glut of used cars that is already building will hammer another nail into the coffin of the new ones.




I know that there will be a bunch of armchair experts working at McDonalds that will dispute this information but at this point in time there is about an 85% probability you can kiss the Twins (in any form) goodbye forever.


Forget everything you think you know about the auto industry because NONE of it applies anymore and it will NEVER go back to pre Covid status. We are all living through the end of an automotive era as we know it.


Sincerely,
Tcoat
Senior Manager
Tier One automotive parts supplier
30 years in the business

FWIW, completely agree. We're going into a completely new world. As unsettling as it is for everyone, there will be no going back to 'normal' for the foreseeable future. The 'new normal' is going to be very different from the life we have all known. We all want everything to just go back the way it's been, go back to life as we knew it, but it's just not going to happen.

The impact on the next-gen twins is that all car companies are now going to be in cash conservation mode for quite a while. It's sheer survival. Not so much how to maximize revenues, but how to minimize the bleeding. Even Toyota, the largest car company in the world, is going to be focusing on minimizing the pain.

Toyota is a completely financially driven company. I interviewed for a position in new product planning with Toyota over 30 years ago, and was turned down. Their reason was that I was "too much of a car guy". They were afraid that I would let my love of cars get in the way of making strictly financially-based decisions. Every one of the dozen or so people I interviewed with at the time were proud of not being 'car people', but strictly financial types. Making decisions based strictly on the 'numbers' was the Toyota way, and I suspect it hasn't changed.

Even though Toyota's pockets are very deep, they may well decide that it's better to cut their losses and discontinue development - and spending - on what would at best be a niche car with an inconsequential impact on sales. Even in a best case (pre-coronavirus) scenario, the 86/BRZ would be trivial in terms of total Toyota sales (and Subaru, at 1/10 the size, can't do it on its own). In the new world order, it's probably going to be hard to make a case for continuing to spend money on a specialized niche car that might not make any return on investment (or certainly not as good a ROI as a mass-market car such as a Camry). A couple of days' worth of Camry sales probably exceed an entire years' 86/BRZ revenues.

I would absolutely love to see a new BRZ/86 with a turbo 2.4 engine. Even though I just bought my 2019 6 months ago, I'd be the first in line for one. But the harsh reality is that it's just not likely to happen.

[Dirty Harry]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

My personal opinion, based upon what the automotive market was doing even before it had it's teeth kicked in by Covid and the information I have seen in the last few days (there is more that I can not share or would be instantly fired) I think the probability of seeing a new 86 is extremely remote at any time in the future. Up to and including 2030. Even all the rumours and theories based upon that one stupid "leaked" release date slide can be ripped up and thrown away at this point.
I would very much love to be proven wrong though!

Understand the world has changed a lot because of COVID-19. I mentioned this scenario in the thread below a few weeks back and you said the complete opposite? It really has gone to shit. Thanks for sharing. I guess our current and likely only gen will be an instant classic, well as time goes on anyway.

https://www.ft86club.com/forums/show...97#post3311097

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Dirty Harry

Understand the world has changed a lot because of COVID-19. I mentioned this scenario in the thread below a few weeks back and you said the complete opposite? I guess it really has gone to the shit. Thanks for sharing. I guess our current and likely only gen will be an instant classic, well as time goes on anyway.

https://www.ft86club.com/forums/show...97#post3311097

It has indeed changed that much in this short a time. I have said in a couple of threads that I have totally changed my prior statements based on the new info. I have also explained in a couple of places that the "normal" contract requirements can only be overridden by an "disaster clause" where the agreed upon contracts can be voided. The disaster clause has some very heavy requirements that rarely can be applied. This is the only time in the industry history where that clause can be used en mass against all suppliers by all companies. What was normal has gone with the wind and a new normal will have to replace it. The industry will not just go back to what it was. It can't.
If things change I will possibly again change what I am saying since my opinion will change with the new facts.

[Dirty Harry]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

It has indeed changed that much in this short a time. I have said in a couple of threads that I have totally changed my prior statements based on the new info. I have also explained in a couple of places that the "normal" contract requirements can only be overridden by an "disaster clause" where the agreed upon contracts can be voided. The disaster clause has some very heavy requirements that rarely can be applied. This is the only time in the industry history where that clause can be used en mass against all suppliers by all companies. What was normal has gone with the wind and a new normal will have to replace it. The industry will not just go back to what it was. It can't.
If things change I will possibly again change what I am saying since my opinion will change with the new facts.

Yeah fair enough, just looking at the news reports and what I’m seeing in my own industry, I’m in the IT dept. for a major insurer over here and the rate of change to our systems and products in the past few weeks, I’ve never seen in my 20+ years in the industry. Pretty scary. I’m just glad to have a job at the moment to be honest.

At least we have the first gen. You’re very lucky to get the 2020 Hakone edition before everything went pear shaped.

[soundman98]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

My personal opinion, based upon what the automotive market was doing even before it had it's teeth kicked in by Covid and the information I have seen in the last few days (there is more that I can not share or would be instantly fired) I think the probability of seeing a new 86 is extremely remote at any time in the future. Up to and including 2030. Even all the rumours and theories based upon that one stupid "leaked" release date slide can be ripped up and thrown away at this point.
I would very much love to be proven wrong though!

after the 'better sources' spurred you to a 2020 model, i started seriously consider stretching for one of the 'last hurrah's'... now i almost wish i had, at the very same time i'm really happy to already have a '14...

[HSC]

Tcoat brings up a lot of good points that would impact the next 86 but I'm not as certain of the demise of NG as he would believe. Yes, the industry is suffering (which industry isn't?) but Toyota & Subaru have already spent years working on this program (typically 4-5 yrs out from SOP) and have millions (if not billions) in sunk costs. Toyota doesn't deviate from a strategy easily - whether for good or bad - and I expect if they are doing roadshows to share product plans in near-term pipeline, they will likely continue although timelines will be up for debate. I can see other OEM's scrapping plans based on conditions but being familiar with Toyota culture, my guess is that they move forward while tweaking plans.

With that said, I am surprised Toyota even would want a NG 86 based on where buyers are trending and how it overlaps with the 4-cylinder Supra so who knows...

[cyde01]

This is all very upsetting. I wasn’t interested in buying the new model but was definitely curious about it and was looking forward to seeing one at a local meet. Glad I got my ‘18 while I had the chance!

[steel86gt]

Hoping development resumes right where it left off once the economy gets back up and running, really looking forward to the next gen!

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by HSC

Tcoat brings up a lot of good points that would impact the next 86 but I'm not as certain of the demise of NG as he would believe. Yes, the industry is suffering (which industry isn't?) but Toyota & Subaru have already spent years working on this program (typically 4-5 yrs out from SOP) and have millions (if not billions) in sunk costs. Toyota doesn't deviate from a strategy easily - whether for good or bad - and I expect if they are doing roadshows to share product plans in near-term pipeline, they will likely continue although timelines will be up for debate. I can see other OEM's scrapping plans based on conditions but being familiar with Toyota culture, my guess is that they move forward while tweaking plans.

With that said, I am surprised Toyota even would want a NG 86 based on where buyers are trending and how it overlaps with the 4-cylinder Supra so who knows...

Toyota, like the rest of the industry, have had their prior cultures ground into the dust. You can no longer judge what will happen now by what they used to do. They could very easily throw all the money already spent out just to not spend more.

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by steel86gt

Hoping development resumes right where it left off once the economy gets back up and running, really looking forward to the next gen!

Emission and safety regulation isn't going to pause because the economy did. They likely won't be able to just pick up where they left off. Of course how bad that effects them will depend on how far along they where.

[Ernest72]

I know people who work at Merc and they have been talking for years about trimming down the offerings. Because of sales volume targets and competition they never do it. This event could be motivation to finally trim down vehicles that don’t add as much value. My guess is low volume sports cars could be the first to go. I imagine it will be driven by a bean counter not a company strategy or vision.

[solidONE]

Potayto vs Potahto

Which one makes better fries?