GT86 Collectors Car?

[Alott53]

I am curious as to whether or not the GT86 will hold its value as the years go by. Could the GT86 possibly even be a collectors car in the future? I really would like to hear some peoples opinion/speculation on this.

[tyrantcf]

If you like the car for the time that you owned it, then it was a good car.

I don't expect the car to become a collectors car or hold value any better than other cars of the same type. But this topic is complete speculation either way.

[vividracing]

Just my opinion but it depends on the rarity and condition and it's influence on car culture.

Mustangs, Corvettes, Camaros and other muscle cars from the 60's are in such high demand these days because people in their 50's-70's want the car that they grew up with, either their dad had one or it was their first or second car they owned.

More than just the performance of it, they became legendary cars, the example for their genre of the muscle car, and muscle cars were a big hit back then.

You have to keep in mind what cars are here with us today to what will be around 30 years from now. Will the GT86 be a big get? Well it has a few things going for it. One, its a niche car, only 9700 BRZ's were made to US/Canada spec in 2013, and only 4500 in 2012.

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2012/05...s-figures.html

I have a 2013 BRZ, Limited, Automatic, in Galaxy Blue.

Do some math...

9700
1/2 were Limited trim (= 4850)
1/3 were Automatics (= 1616)
8% were Galaxy Blue (= 129)
Galaxy Blue was discontinued for BRZ after 2013.
I can't remember where I heard the stats for trim, trans, and color but that's what it was.

My car is in a group of only 129 examples for 2013, and were not made again (at least with that color). If I include the same math for the 2012 year, only 60 such cars were made. If you own a 2012 BRZ Limited Automatic in Galaxy Blue, you own a collector car. Do not sell it or trade it. In 20-30 years you will have an auction level car.

I don't intend on getting rid of my car, I will keep it as long as I can as a future investment, and see what happens. I'll store it away if I have to.

Back to what makes a car valuable in the future, another big consideration is rarity. If 30 years from now, a car that only had 60 produced in a year, and 129 the year after that, and were discontinued in that color after that, that means only 189 examples were EVER made. How many of them would be in a good enough condition to sell then? Maybe less than 50 of them? If you own one of them in pretty good condition by then, that's a rare car, and collectors buy that like crazy, regardless of what it was. You never hear of a rare Honda Civic. Why? Because Honda made millions of them since they started. The only rare one would be #00000000001, or a manufacturer special edition, limited runs like the Mugen RR, but even those aren't as rare because they were intentionally made rare by the manufacturer.

Unintentional rarity from limited manufacturing or discontinuing something makes a car so much more valuable because it wasn't intentionally made rare. Does that make sense?

I honestly believe that BRZ's and FRS's will be collector cars, depending on who the buyer is. Corvettes have sold a few million since they started? That means there's a few million prospective buyers of a rare Corvette, and they will clamor over each other to get it. The FRS/BRZ only has what, less than 100,000 for US spec made? Not many buyers.

If they keep making the BRZ for the next couple decades, then yes there will be enough buyers to increase the value.

[Tromatic]

Non-molested mostly-stock examples will be in demand. It's already "collectable" to some, and ten years from now after the next eight years of insane Democrats running the show it WILL be a classic.

[MokSpeed]

Part of it will also really depend on popular culture. This is not something any of us would like to admit, but this does have a huge influence on the prestige certain vehicles receive.

[Veloist]

This is something I think about but don't worry about. The production numbers are pretty high for it to be considered a collector's car, but it would certainly be rare to find a low-mileage example in 15-20 years. The question is, would it be desirable?

For instance, let's look at a Honda S2000...it would be pretty cool & rare to find a bone stock 2000 S2000 with less than 30,000 miles. But how many people would actually consider buying it?

But let's say a bone stock AE86 or Corolla GT-S pops up in an estate auction. The car only had one owner, has about 36,540 miles on it, and was never driven in the rain and is manual. Well this is going to get some decent attention from well-off JDM lovers, and if the right buyer buys it, they'll probably keep it in a garage and not drive it, AKA collect it.

Basically, the probability of the 2nd scenario is almost unheard of compared to the first one. Sure it may not go for a 1,000,000 bucks, but I'd bet an AE86 like that would go for 30,000-40,000 optimistically. We wouldn't know for sure, because it just doesn't happen--and that's what makes it a collector's car...being able to have this car, that other people WANT, and by having it, you reduce other people's chances of also having one, significantly.

So, I think that will determine if the 86/FR-S/BRZ will have collector car status. If the world is deprived of a low-mileage bone stock FR-S in the same way the AE86 is, then it will be a collector's car. Right now, it doesn't seem like it. And it might take a long time.

Clean 2nd-gen MR2's, turbo or N/A for example, are pretty rare, but I'd argue they do not have "collector's cars" status, and their production numbers were less than even just the FR-S alone. (However, an MR2 Turbo hardtop may be a different story because they were produced in such little numbers.)

[NOHOME]

No way.

Same question was asked when the Miata was new (25 years ago) and you can buy beautiful examples of those for less than $10k.

You also need look no further than the MGB to see where mass produced specialty cars do not become valuable collector vehicles even after 50 years.

That said, some people are going to buy and baby these cars like they were made of crystal. These will be the cars you want to buy for your enjoyment 25 years from now when your kids are grown up and you get all nostalgic about your youth and the kool FRS that you had to sell when the kids were born!

[Tcoat]

The collector car market has some of the most fickle buyers of any hobby. What is highly sought after and extremely valuable this year can be had for a song from people trying to unload them the next.
As has been said nostalgia and pop culture are two major factors in determining what is popular at any given time. The current economy also plays a huge part in what collector cars are valued and they can plummet in value in weeks if the economy tanks.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by NOHOME

That said, some people are going to buy and baby these cars like they were made of crystal. These will be the cars you want to buy for your enjoyment 25 years from now when your kids are grown up and you get all nostalgic about your youth and the kool FRS that you had to sell when the kids were born!

This^^^^^^

[MokSpeed]

Another huge factor that has to be considered is how many generations and reiterations we will see of the twins. For all we know the next couple of years could be it. Certain cars often gain value and praise simply by being the superior of their own name. A good example of this is the Lancer Evolution. There are certain generation models that are much more revered than others.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by MokSpeed

Another huge factor that has to be considered is how many generations and reiterations we will see of the twins. For all we know the next couple of years could be it. Certain cars often gain value and praise simply by being the superior of their own name. A good example of this is the Lancer Evolution. There are certain generation models that are much more revered than others.

I guess we need to take a couple of steps back and define "collectors car".
My version of this is it sits and never gets driven at all. A true collectors car will lose value for every mile put on it.
If we are talking a rare car that is used for weekends or casual use it could be a "show" or "hobby" car but would no longer have collector status.
I think the Evos you spoke of fit into a class other then "collector" since they are loved for their driving characteristics and are therefore actually driven. I doubt there are many hidden away that never see the road.

[MokSpeed]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

I guess we need to take a couple of steps back and define "collectors car".
My version of this is it sits and never gets driven at all. A true collectors car will lose value for every mile put on it.
If we are talking a rare car that is used for weekends or casual use it could be a "show" or "hobby" car but would no longer have collector status.
I think the Evos you spoke of fit into a class other then "collector" since they are loved for their driving characteristics and are therefore actually driven. I doubt there are many hidden away that never see the road.

I'm glad you brought this up @Tcoat. I was merely thinking of the term being used as cars you would want in your "collection". Basically one of many vehicles you have in your inventory available for use.

If we are going by the literal definition then I would have to agree with those that say the twins will not be a collector's car.

[bodayguy]

I don't see them ever being worth more than what we paid for a new one, but I do see the values leveling off in a couple years. Especially if the model dies.
So will a nice BRZ be worth 15 grand all day long in 2022? Yeah, I could see that.
In my eyes, then, the car could be "collectible" based on limited numbers and cult status, but not particularly valuable.

[NOHOME]

What you will see, but few will take advantage of, is the oportunity to drive a cool car for free once these are 25-30 year old cars.

In the Miata and MGB world, you won't make money by buying and selling the cars. However a perfect MGB that was restored by someone 5 years ago is going to sell for about 15k. Garaged low mile Miatas for about 9-10 k max. You can buy these cars, take good care of them, and five years later sell for what you paid. This essentially free use of a car for five years. Not a bad deal.

The same can be done with any of the specialty cars that have a nostalgic following. The only warning is that you have to be good at spotting a good car versus a bodged together for sale piece of junk.