Covid 19 origin(s)

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Atmo

Re-read the scientific method. Skepticism through questioning and testing of everything we see and hear about science should make rational people curious. There are so many spurious claims presented as fact while new findings almost daily need to be considered with an open mind.

A skeptical, rational and scientific person doesn’t come to conclusions first and then work back. They start with assuming nothing and work forward. Seems like the US has attained internal data from the lab. If they find something compelling then it is appropriate to point fingers. People can be right for the wrong reasons, so we need to hold judgement until we get answers. Like the article says, it is doubtful we will get a smoking gun. Even if data showed they were working on gain of function research, then all we have is an accident or negligence. We don’t have intent without internal emails or something definitive discussing the intent. I think malice intent is highly unlikely.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...lab/index.html

[cjd]

Originally Posted by Atmo

Re-read the scientific method. Skepticism through questioning and testing of everything we see and hear about science should make rational people curious. There are so many spurious claims presented as fact while new findings almost daily need to be considered with an open mind.

Re-read my comment.

I challenged your conclusion. I did not challenge the scientific method.

[Irace86.2.0]

Person 1: Unicorns are real!
Person 2: No they aren’t. Have you ever seen evidence of one?
Person 1: No, but I just know it.
Person 2: Ok, just sit down.

News article:

Person 1: See!!!
Person 2: Ok, but that doesn’t really count.

[Lantanafrs2]

Many of us have a strong desire to believe that there is someone or entity who is all knowing, honest and has our best interests in mind. We pick one to believe in and fight with those who choose another. It never ends. When there is no more political leverage or financial gain to be had from covid 19 media coverage will lessen and we'll be able to move on with our lives.

[dpfarr]

I’ll eat my words in a heart beat if there is solid support that opposes what I think is best explained. In the meantime, the continued loss of life and opposition to inhibit loss of life should be televised because IT IS INSANE.

[Capt Spaulding]

As other posters have mentioned, the question as to how to address China’s role depends on the answers to several questions.

Did sars-cov2 actually originate in China?

If it did;

Did it originate in Wuhan?

If it did;

Did it originate at WIV?

If it did;

What was WIV doing with the sars – cov2 virus?

Were they?

Conducting research to isolate potential viral threats to humans?

- With an eye toward getting ahead of a potential future pandemic?

- With an eye toward weaponizing a virus?
and,

did their bio-containment processes fail?

Or,

did they deliberately release a pathogen on an unsuspecting global human population?

And I am SURE I’ve missed a few steps.

So, what do we know now – to a fair degree of certainty?

There is a virus. That’s pretty much it. And a number of my fellow humans, some apparently on this board, dispute either the existence or the severity of the threat. The arrows point to China as the source, but are we 99.99% sure, I don’t know, but I don’t think so.

So all the talk of what to do to China is like – way, way premature – and, I think, largely bluster and puffery.
IF we don't know the answer to Question 1, all the rest is pretty silly.


And we must remember that we are talking about another of the growing global sorority of nuclear armed powers; one that has open ambitions of global economic dominance to boot. Ultimately, this may lead to an armed conflict, even a nuclear exchange – I doubt it, but the probability is not zero.

The ranting about punishing China seems very premature and is doing little more than pushing us closer to the jaws of Thucydides Trap. We may get there anyway, but that will be a very bad day.

Now, I AM quite certain that folks in the Pentagon and Beijing have been wargaming it out - and will continue to do - so we can sleep well.

[Atmo]

Seems like suggesting thermonuclear war with China as a possibility is about as close to bluster and puffery that I've read in this thread, especially if a virus can be weaponized and delivered cheaply for the same effect while leaving real estate intact.

[dpfarr]

To simplify, the pandemic might have been known to be very disruptive but not Ebola. Based on the known disruption, the expected real estate of China remains much less effected than either a war there or anywhere else would result in?

I don’t assume you think this, nor do I mean to infer that you do; but do you believe the mess of us thinking China is not this insidious force to be greatly naive? Their genocidal actions against Uygher populations doesn’t bear well for them not doing some shadowy human rights violations on the globe.

I get the feeling you’re playing devils advocate in this subject.

[Atmo]

If I understand the first part yes, real estate would be unaffected anywhere from a biological attack. This doesn't include effects on air, water or food supplies though.

I'm glad you mentioned the 1 million Uyghurs subject to genocide according to the UN. Include the takeover of Hong Kong with Taiwan in the crosshairs and nothing more than a strongly worded letter from the UN as a response, it's shocking but not surprising.

Recent history has shown that Socialist governments view human beings as a fungible commodity, a means to an end with the objective of absolute power and control of people, places and resources using whatever it takes. China is succeeding, their hostile, inhumane actions in violation of the Geneva Conventions and Protocols are ignored by most media, censored, or appeased like we've seen from Big Tech and the ICC.

[Capt Spaulding]

Originally Posted by Atmo

Seems like suggesting thermonuclear war with China as a possibility is about as close to bluster and puffery that I've read in this thread, especially if a virus can be weaponized and delivered cheaply for the same effect while leaving real estate intact.

Thermonuclear war with a nuclear armed antagonist is ALWAYS possible. What changes is the likelihood. There have been several books written that examine the Sino-American relationship through Thucydides lens. China, an aggressive competitor with the apparent, if not explicitly stated, goal of supplanting the US in the global economic pecking order poses an existential threat to America's economic and political position in the world order. As you may have noticed, "Making America Great Again" has a strong pull on some in the US. That is precisely the mind set that could lead to the conflict that Thucydides warned of.

As to the method used, bio/chem weapons have a number of drawbacks - blowback being only one. Neutron devices may be better - but my guess is no one is thinking about occupying another's territory. They/we are just pissed off. That leads to bad decisions.

I mention the possibility of a nuclear exchange only because it IS a possibility. Remember the panic in Hawaii during Trump's little dust up/insult fest with Kim? Wars often start as the result of strategic failures. Rushing off half cocked when we don't know what reality is can lead to serious strategic failures. We just need to make sure we're playing chess here - not checkers.

[weederr33]

Originally Posted by Capt Spaulding

Thermonuclear war with a nuclear armed antagonist is ALWAYS possible. What changes is the likelihood. There have been several books written that examine the Sino-American relationship through Thucydides lens. China, an aggressive competitor with the apparent, if not explicitly stated, goal of supplanting the US in the global economic pecking order poses an existential threat to America's economic and political position in the world order. As you may have noticed, "Making America Great Again" has a strong pull on some in the US. That is precisely the mind set that could lead to the conflict that Thucydides warned of.

As to the method used, bio/chem weapons have a number of drawbacks - blowback being only one. Neutron devices may be better - but my guess is no one is thinking about occupying another's territory. They/we are just pissed off. That leads to bad decisions.

I mention the possibility of a nuclear exchange only because it IS a possibility. Remember the panic in Hawaii during Trump's little dust up/insult fest with Kim? Wars often start as the result of strategic failures. Rushing off half cocked when we don't know what reality is can lead to serious strategic failures. We just need to make sure we're playing chess here - not checkers.

And that is why we have a tiered system. We don't need a flashpoint thanks to some hot-headed individual with a confidence problem. I'm not too worried of nuclear war as it's generally accepted most modern countries understand the severe repercussions. That's why cyber warfare has become such a prevalent thing in the last 20 years. Now that doesn't mean some sort of proxy hit couldn't start one....

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Atmo

Seems like suggesting thermonuclear war with China as a possibility is about as close to bluster and puffery that I've read in this thread, especially if a virus can be weaponized and delivered cheaply for the same effect while leaving real estate intact.

This would have been a bad biological weapon.

A good biological weapon would have a compliment vaccine, it would kill absolutely and swiftly, but be very delayed, it would be very slow to evolve, and it would be species specific. This virus isn't even close to those things.

Even if such a virus could be engineered, there would have to be a huge plan in place to prepare for such an event. If you saw China pull out of every market over the course of a decade or something then I would start getting worried, but anything less would send China's economy into an immediate crash because their economy is highly tied into the rest of the world. Moreover, how would the Chinese react to a biological weapon killing off the rest of the world?

I don't get why this is even worth considering as a possibility. I watch V for Vendetta every November 5th, and I have a Guy Fawkes mask, but I think maybe you drank the CoolAid too much.

[serialk11r]

Limeng Yan did not even work in Wuhan. Even if you forget her connections with Bannon, her credibility is by far the lowest.

WIV is not a "military run" institute, it was built by the French and has extensive international cooperation (e.g. Fauci, the Australian scientist who was working there and spoke about it, the many American researchers who collaborated on research). You only heard about the coronavirus GoF research...because it's public.

The idea peddled by a few journalists that you're supposed to be able to trace the source very quickly and the fact that no natural source has come up makes it suspicious is not true at all. In a competent cover-up in the case that you're supposed to be able to find the natural reservoir quickly, it would be extremely easy to plant the virus in the wild. It is extremely difficult to trace where a virus came from when only a small fraction of cases are ever even detected, and an even smaller fraction of cases can be fully genetically sequenced.

I get accused of rationalizing why there was no lab leak, but really the purely scientific evidence boils down to this:

Wuhan outbreak has patient zero estimated at sometime between October and early November (it's a x% confidence interval).

Thus, evidence that points to outbreaks starting elsewhere early on weakens the probability that patient zero in Wuhan is patient zero globally. The earlier you can verify a case existed somewhere else, the stronger the evidence patient zero was not from Wuhan.

We already have multiple independent studies showing that Italy had cases in September and October. We know for sure that the US had cases in early December, before the number of patients in Wuhan was significant (the chance one of them travelled to the US or spread it to a US traveller is not 0, but it's fairly small). The Italy data could be wrong, but there is still the Spain sewage samples, and a dearth of November and early December cases around the world.

"But why didn't we notice outbreaks anywhere else?"
-Wuhan is densely populated and public transit is commonly used. Viruses spread much faster here than anywhere in Europe or the US.
-Just like the Delta variant is causing a ton of trouble with only a tiny genetic change, the immediate ancestor of the Wuhan strain could be much less infectious or deadly.

Am I still suspicious there were bad actors involved or that the virus was genetically engineered? A little, but I'm not going to worry about it.

[Irace86.2.0]