Official: Toyota FT-1 Concept / First New Supra Prototype Spotted!

[NARFALICIOUS]

Originally Posted by rvoll

Back and forth aside, corporate decisions on the continuance of a product are done on a yearly, then quarterly, basis. They watch sales, run ROI analyses, calculate break evens, and also integrate with future plans. So on an existing line, information from even a year ago may not be relevant. Competition also plays a role. I suspect the introduction of the RF hurt 86 sales in the longer term. What is true today, may not have been true even 6 months ago. But new car introductions require lead times and CAPEX. They must be planned over the longer term. So the tidbits of information we get from internal sources (like Tada) do have relevance. But information on the declination of existing products are much less reliable because those decisions are generally shorter term, competitive product acceptance is not known, and sales may show a lot of short term variance.

Thus, no matter what what said about keeping an existing product even 6 months ago, the decision may well change based on current sales data. Current volume of the 86 is declining much more rapidly than a normal decay curve would predict. Thus the likelihood of the 86 being discontinued would be significantly increased. Also, in this case, as time evolves, the company can gauge the pricing on new products, like the Supra, and determine the cannibalization from existing brands. There will be a segment of Supra buyers, like me, who may purchase it instead of the 86 even with a significant upcharge.

For those reasons, I do think it is highly probable that the 86 will be discontinued over the next couple of years.

Sales figures are not the only metric being watched.
Stop acting like you know everything. Even those in the know, don't always know.

Originally Posted by Rampage

If the 4 cylinder version exist then I would not even be a little bit surprised if it was called..............Celica.

That would be nice! But it would be left field. Why develop a concept based on the Halo name, then at the 11th hour, call the base model a Celica?

Originally Posted by rvoll

I don't know the weight of the new Supra, but the comments by those who have actually seen the car, and there are several of them, say it is much smaller than it seems. It also has a shorter wheelbase. That argues for a car that is lighter. The MX5 has a 91 inch wheelbase while the 86 has a 101 inch wheelbase. The MX5 weighs about 2400 lbs while the 86 weighs about 2800 lbs. So if we interpolate this data, a sports car with a wheelbase halfway in between with a 4 cylinder engine might weigh 2600 lbs. Add to that a couple of hundred pounds of nicer materials and insulation puts you closer to 2800 lbs, not 3300 lbs. Given the current data, I don't know how you get that heavy with a 4 cyl engine....

You're not interpolating anything, bro. No current data. No analysis.
Nice armchair physics.

The wheelbase for the mk4 was 100 inches. and it was 3400lbs.

There's more to it than just the wheelbase.

[venturaII]

Originally Posted by Overdrive

I'm figuring he means more about size than it being a floaty, sloppy mess. Camaros have learned to become sports cars and not just muscle cars ever since they came back (been a fan of them and Firebirds about as long as I've been alive), but they are pretty massive. They've gone on a diet, thank goodness, but they're still around 3700lbs at the heaviest. That's not light, but 450hp helps with that, and the vehicle just isn't small in size. If you could make the SS weigh as much as the 4-cylinder model does, it would be that much better handling, but still have a pretty big footprint.

Agreed - they're 'nimble', but it's only through brute force - big tires, stiff suspension, big horsepower. They're just way too big in every metric to be considered real sports cars in my mind, regardless of how many g's they can pull or what their lap times are.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by rvoll

This interview was not about a 4 cyl version -- it was about the prototype. I guess you didn't get that.... And I guess EVERYONE on this forum knew about the shorter wheelbase. After all, who else spends day and night posting? If I would have spent all that time over the years immersed in this forum I might have known. I'll work harder in the future to catch up to the king of the forum who knows all and sees all....

And I'll watch for all of the firings and lawsuits against the publications that quote Tada.... Perhaps with all of his quotes, if not true, Tada will be fired??????

Back and forth aside, corporate decisions on the continuance of a product are done on a yearly, then quarterly, basis. They watch sales, run ROI analyses, calculate break evens, and also integrate with future plans. So on an existing line, information from even a year ago may not be relevant. Competition also plays a role. I suspect the introduction of the RF hurt 86 sales in the longer term. What is true today, may not have been true even 6 months ago. But new car introductions require lead times and CAPEX. They must be planned over the longer term. So the tidbits of information we get from internal sources (like Tada) do have relevance. But information on the declination of existing products are much less reliable because those decisions are generally shorter term, competitive product acceptance is not known, and sales may show a lot of short term variance.

Thus, no matter what what said about keeping an existing product even 6 months ago, the decision may well change based on current sales data. Current volume of the 86 is declining much more rapidly than a normal decay curve would predict. Thus the likelihood of the 86 being discontinued would be significantly increased. Also, in this case, as time evolves, the company can gauge the pricing on new products, like the Supra, and determine the cannibalization from existing brands. There will be a segment of Supra buyers, like me, who may purchase it instead of the 86 even with a significant upcharge.

For those reasons, I do think it is highly probable that the 86 will be discontinued over the next couple of years. Obviously, companies will not comment on product discontinuations because it would hurt sales. So there will be virtually no corroborative information.

LOL Really? Your argument that I don't know about things revolves around my being here to much reading about things? Ohhh that is rich.
Then you close out with the same old rhetoric about sales declines?
Show me a Toyota press release where Tada states something and I will believe it. It is not him that I doubt it is the validity of the claims he said what he did. Anything published by websites that make their money on clicks is dubious at best. If everything that had been attributed to "high Level Toyota Officials" or Tada himself over the years had been even remotely true then we would have 300HP, turbo, awd 86s all over the place by now. If they throw enough shit at a wall some will stick so sometimes they at least appear to have known what they are talking about but most of that shit falls to the ground (where it is sometimes picked back up and thrown at the wall again to see if it will stick this year).

[Jordanwolf]

Originally Posted by venturaII

Agreed - they're 'nimble', but it's only through brute force - big tires, stiff suspension, big horsepower. They're just way too big in every metric to be considered real sports cars in my mind, regardless of how many g's they can pull or what their lap times are.

I wouldn't define it as brute force imo. It's simply a different engineering/design approach. I don't think it's fair to discount it's capabilities based on it's size.

[ZDan]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

They usually are.

I don't think Road & Track are in the habit of having to fire editors for blatantly lying...
I consider myself to be pretty skeptical regarding automotive "news". But I find it easier to believe this guy actually had this conversation with Tada than to believe that he just made it up and got Road & Track to release it.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by ZDan

I don't think Road & Track are in the habit of having to fire editors for blatantly lying...
I consider myself to be pretty skeptical regarding automotive "news". But I find it easier to believe this guy actually had this conversation with Tada than to believe that he just made it up and got Road & Track to release it.

Meh. It is all in the individual's ability to believe. I don't but I am not asking others not to.
If the fabrication/distortion of the truth makes them money the writer probably get's a bonus not fired.
Funny how positive speculation based on these articles is grasped onto hard but negative is dismissed.
It won't be long and we will see just what is real and what is fake news.

[FRSBRZGT86FAN]

Originally Posted by why?

what I'd guess would happen is they push the twins downmarket. Pricing it at or below $20k would help it immensely.

Originally Posted by Summerwolf

When these things are over 30k now that wont happen. They were supposedly going to be under 20k to begin with, which would have made them sell like crazy (IMO) and be considered one of the greatest bargains. Like the NSRT4 of its day. Instead they came out and..... it is what it is.

Prices will keep climbing.

Originally Posted by why?

The Yen went nuts right before they were officially announced and they had no choice but to bump the price up. With a new gen they can figure out how to drop the price, because it really is needed.

No way it goes sub 20k with the the 2.4l, new tech and motor will keep the current price or increase it for sure.

[bkharmony]

Originally Posted by rvoll

...And I guess EVERYONE on this forum knew about the shorter wheelbase. After all, who else spends day and night posting? If I would have spent all that time over the years immersed in this forum I might have known. I'll work harder in the future to catch up to the king of the forum who knows all and sees all....

You really have some bizarre hangup on this shit.

[bkharmony]

Originally Posted by funwheeldrive

Alpha Camaro is probably the best handling car for under 50k to be honest.

Their looks are deceiving. They look like Boaty McBoatfaces, but handle damn well. The last review of the 4-pot I read likened it to the.... wait for it.... BRZ/86.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by bkharmony

You really have some bizarre hangup on this shit.

But...




But...




But...

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by FRSBRZGT86FAN

No way it goes sub 20k with the the 2.4l, new tech and motor will keep the current price or increase it for sure.

Even if they kept everything the same they couldn't possibly chop the price that much without cutting a pile of corners.
The manufacturer margin for common appliance cars is usually between 8% and 10%. Be surprised if the margin on the 86 even reaches 5% max. Doesn't leave any room for a 30% reduction in price even if they want to sell it at a loss for other business reasons.

[Shark_Bait88]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

But...




But...




But...

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Shark_Bait88

[Shark_Bait88]

Originally Posted by Tcoat