Engine failure - 38,000 miles

[extrashaky]

Remember, after your engine failure, you will be bitten by a shark and then die in a plane crash. Because all these things are rampant.

[HunterGreene]

Originally Posted by extrashaky

Remember, after your engine failure, you will be bitten by a shark and then die in a plane crash. Because all these things are rampant.

You forgot asteroid/comet impacts.

[Annahra]

The good news is once you blow an engine, you are safe to buy another one, because no way will it happen to the same person twice. That's how statistics work, right??

[andrew20195]

Originally Posted by polarstorm

My car... piston blew through the manifold, yeah that's what it looks like.

I hate to be pedantic, but that is neither the piston or the manifold. Looks like a rocker arm popped loose and got pushed through the valve cover, most likely due to contact with another rocker or the cam itself.

[Mr 286]

Originally Posted by Annahra

The good news is once you blow an engine, you are safe to buy another one, because no way will it happen to the same person twice. That's how statistics work, right??

Well ... not exactly lol

Putting Bayes' Theorem for conditional probabilities aside for a moment, and simply looking at the fact that there are other factors involved once your motor goes south (shoddy repairs, defects, original cause not corrected, etc), you still have a reasonable chance of additional issues.

[Annahra]

Originally Posted by Mr 286

Well ... not exactly lol

Putting Bayes' Theorem for conditional probabilities aside for a moment, and simply looking at the fact that there are other factors involved once your motor goes south (shoddy repairs, defects, original cause not corrected, etc), you still have a reasonable chance of additional issues.

I was being sarcastic. Because I know that's not how statistics work.

[Mr 286]

Originally Posted by extrashaky

Remember, after your engine failure, you will be bitten by a shark and then die in a plane crash. Because all these things are rampant.

I get what you're saying about the likelihood of those events being relatively close and I know you're mostly joking, but since I really like math I figure I should point out that the probabilities for an engine failure are actually a lot higher in practice than in theory.

Even in a trivial case where we give them both a sample space with only 2 events (something happened, something didn't happen), there is simply a much larger sequence of events for the engine failure to occur in any given experiment since I probably fly in a plane less than once a year on average, and I am around sharks even far less frequently; whereas I drive my cars every single day.

Now, since you did did say I would be bitten by a shark THEN die in a plane crash that brings conditional probability into play and the number gets even more disparate.

Please don't mind me. I tend to nerd out on these things lol

[Mr 286]

Originally Posted by Annahra

I was being sarcastic. Because I know that's not how statistics work.

Yeah I figured that, because I think you're on a whole new car after an engine failure yourself if I recall right?

[Annahra]

Originally Posted by Mr 286

Yeah I figured that, because I think you're on a whole new car after an engine failure yourself if I recall right?

Haha, yes. First one not modded but previous minor front end damage. If the new one blows up, I'm switching to a GLI. Because it must be me.

[Mr 286]

Originally Posted by Annahra

Haha, yes. First one not modded but previous minor front end damage. If the new one blows up, I'm switching to a GLI. Because it must be me.

I hope your new one lasts, and not too many others have similar problems to mine because my plan was to keep this car and drive it until the wheels fall off. If I have more problems, I'm going to hate to go get something else at this point because I really do enjoy driving this car. It's just an absolute blast.

[Lonewolf]

Originally Posted by Monogram

I'm still waiting for someone to post anything concrete regarding a stock vehicle, unmodded, not abused, with an engine failure.

So far we have:
Forced induction
Lightweight pulley
Wrecked
Burned rubber until the check engine light came on
16 year old with zip for experience
Modified intake
Tracked multiple times
Canyon shots with modified intake and aftermarket tune
Modified exhaust with aftermarket tune

Please, someone please post verifiable information of a factory Twin with a blown engine where there are no extenuating circumstances.

One someone posts verifiable information of a blown engine with no extenuating circumstances, we will then have a blown engine within every statistical probability, so that person will probably, simply, be the unlucky one.

Add another to the list: fuel pump replacement (to get rid of crickets) by the dealer

[bakerr6]

Originally Posted by Mr 286

I get what you're saying about the likelihood of those events being relatively close and I know you're mostly joking, but since I really like math I figure I should point out that the probabilities for an engine failure are actually a lot higher in practice than in theory.

Even in a trivial case where we give them both a sample space with only 2 events (something happened, something didn't happen), there is simply a much larger sequence of events for the engine failure to occur in any given experiment since I probably fly in a plane less than once a year on average, and I am around sharks even far less frequently; whereas I drive my cars every single day.

Now, since you did did say I would be bitten by a shark THEN die in a plane crash that brings conditional probability into play and the number gets even more disparate.

Please don't mind me. I tend to nerd out on these things lol

I think you will be bitten by a shark, die, then be revived, then die in a plane crash on the way to the hospital

[Mr 286]

Originally Posted by Monogram

I'm still waiting for someone to post anything concrete regarding a stock vehicle, unmodded, not abused, with an engine failure.

So far we have:
Forced induction
Lightweight pulley
Wrecked
Burned rubber until the check engine light came on
16 year old with zip for experience
Modified intake
Tracked multiple times
Canyon shots with modified intake and aftermarket tune
Modified exhaust with aftermarket tune

Please, someone please post verifiable information of a factory Twin with a blown engine where there are no extenuating circumstances.

One someone posts verifiable information of a blown engine with no extenuating circumstances, we will then have a blown engine within every statistical probability, so that person will probably, simply, be the unlucky one.

First of all, hardly any of these things are verifiable. Is there some way you can prove conclusively that some person over the Internet drove and maintained this car within your specifications for normal?

Second. Driver experience, tracking the car (which is ADVERTISED on Scion's website), and most of these very mild modifications do not qualify as extenuating circumstances leading to engine failure.

Third, to what end do you require this information?

You've been in this thread like a broken record since it was first posted repeatedly squawking this same thing. Why is it such a big deal to you to prove that this engine cannot fail unless something outside of your definition of ordinary is taking place?

[andrew20195]

Originally Posted by Monogram

I'm still waiting for someone to post anything concrete regarding a stock vehicle, unmodded, not abused, with an engine failure.

http://www.ft86club.com/forums/showp...&postcount=141