End of the era

[Teseo]

Originally Posted by dragoontwo

I got yelled at for driving too fast in one. I was doing the 55 speed limit.

I got the other way around... doing 50mph in zone of 45mph.

[g e]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

It is a convoluted and very, very, very, rigidly enforced system. Back before the 2008 recession the car manufacturers had the parts suppliers over a barrel most of the time and could do whatever they wanted. After it was all over most of the smaller suppliers had either closed up or been bought by the larger companies. This gave the parts suppliers a bit more power to enforce contract requirements so the car companies couldn't just do as they please. On the other hand the suppliers had bloody well better supply or they will pay for it!

The tricky part that most don't understand is the whole "just in time" supply system. People picture an Amazon type setup with big warehouses ready to send parts to the assembly plants. That would be a great way for a company to go broke fast. The contract says that they want X number of parts to be delivered to the lines just as they are needed. The parts companies make and ship those parts based upon schedules made months in advance. Any hiccup in the assembly plant will cause a trickle down of issues that goes right back to the mining of the raw materials. We see on this (and any car forum) people that think that the cars are somehow made on the fly with the companies having the ability to increase or decrease volume at a whim. This is a very wrong picture of how it works. There are literally thousands of companies involved in making the parts that go into a car and they can not all be turned on and off like a switch.

Automobile manufacturers were early adopters of EDI- Electronic Data Interchange, it’s a huge enabler of JIT supply chain practices

Documents like Purchase orders, Advance ship notices, order change, invoices, And many many more are standardized allowing them to be used across the industry. There are variants between car companies.

First Tier suppliers are mandated to be able to accept and send these documents electronically. Large suppliers integrate this data with their in house accounting and manufacturing applications.

Many of these suppliers in turn require their own suppliers (referred to as Tier 2) to also exchange biz docs electronically. This in turn goes to Tier 3 and Tier4 suppliers

When this is complete there are huge economies of efficiency for each company involved

If a car company sees a slow down in demand, order changes are sent to Tier 1 who in turn notify their suppliers. Product manufacturing slows until demand picks up. And when demand is anticipated to pick up, the downstream suppliers can meet the increased need efficiently

This means less warehousing costs, less interest spent on products not going to a diminished market and so on.

I sold EDI software and integration services for about 10 years to the Tier 1, 2, and 3 suppliers.

Retail and medical also embraced EDI among others.

[g e]

My guess is the gas engine will be deleted after this product run of 6-8 years to be replaced by electric.

Hopefully AWD.

Or maybe fusion power will be a reality then.

Just ask your salesperson.

[Sapphireho]

I'm really surprised they made them this long.

[strat61caster]

Originally Posted by Sapphireho

I'm really surprised they made them this long.

I'm not. Japanese automakers regularly milk their sport car platforms for a decade+. Nissan is still making the same damn 350z with only 2 major body/powertrain updates going on 21 years and counting now. Mazda milked the NA/NB for 15 years, the NC for 8, and the ND is on 7 years and counting. S2k was 10 years too. I'll be shocked if they kill the mk2 86 before 2030 (facelift around 2026), and by then if the better battery comes out we'll probably get an electric mk3.

someone lock this dumbass thread

[Sasquachulator]

Originally Posted by Sapphireho

I'm really surprised they made them this long.

Most vehicles have like a 7 year product run with a midcycle refresh midway.
before being replaced/redesigned.

The twins lasted to a second gen so expect it to have another 7 years so (so like 2030) before its either killed off completely or makes it to a 3rd generation.

Unless the sales plummet so much between now and then that they just cancel it off earlier.

2+ years of pandemic related disruptions have completely messed up the production of EVERYTHING so i wouldnt associate dropped sales with lack of demand at this point.

[spike021]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Subaru isn't going to stop at this point. Parts contracts are usually for 4 years with a minimum of 3. Other than under very special conditions (i.e.COVID shut downs) the assembly plants are obligated to pay for the parts planned whether they use them or not. Car manufacturing is not done on a seat of your pants basis but through long term planning and contracting. If Subaru/Toyota decided to drop out of the plan it would cost them more than it would to build the vehicles and immediately crush them. This is why the Aztec was made for 5 years even though they did not sell worth beans.

We saw "this is the last year for the 86/BRZ" stories and insider scoops every single year from 2016 on so this "news" is really not unexpected. If it was to be believed then the car has already been dropped at least 5 times and any of us driving one post 2016 are delusional since they can't exist.

Clearly the choice to produce and sell vehicles or stop that process is as easy as clicking 1-click purchase on Amazon dot com.

[spike021]

Originally Posted by Sapphireho

I'm really surprised they made them this long.

they're still incredibly popular in Japan, which is really their primary market (maybe @Tcoat or someone else will say otherwise but this is how I personally feel).

If you keep up with the communities there, they still have tons of regular club meets. Including massive events by popular Japanese racing people like Max Orido and Keiichi Tsuchiya. Like three or four times as many attendees as Summer Kick Off in the bay area.

Plus as we know, in Japan modding of the cars is encouraged (as my japanese friend unnecessarily reminded me of last night, Toyota still puts a ton of money into having GR Garages specifically as a friendly resource for buying/installing premium aftermarket products on the twins).

they'll always be a niche vehicle at least around here but I think the brand is still strong over there at least.

[racingfool]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Over the years I have had salesmen tell me:

Had a salesman tell me I needed to get my valves adjusted on my RX7.

[x808drifter]

Originally Posted by racingfool

Had a salesman tell me I needed to get my valves adjusted on my RX7.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by g e

Automobile manufacturers were early adopters of EDI- Electronic Data Interchange, it’s a huge enabler of JIT supply chain practices

Documents like Purchase orders, Advance ship notices, order change, invoices, And many many more are standardized allowing them to be used across the industry. There are variants between car companies.

First Tier suppliers are mandated to be able to accept and send these documents electronically. Large suppliers integrate this data with their in house accounting and manufacturing applications.

Many of these suppliers in turn require their own suppliers (referred to as Tier 2) to also exchange biz docs electronically. This in turn goes to Tier 3 and Tier4 suppliers

When this is complete there are huge economies of efficiency for each company involved

If a car company sees a slow down in demand, order changes are sent to Tier 1 who in turn notify their suppliers. Product manufacturing slows until demand picks up. And when demand is anticipated to pick up, the downstream suppliers can meet the increased need efficiently

This means less warehousing costs, less interest spent on products not going to a diminished market and so on.

I sold EDI software and integration services for about 10 years to the Tier 1, 2, and 3 suppliers.

Retail and medical also embraced EDI among others.

Yep I have worked in Tier one for 30 years and watched this system grow.
Unfortunately what was supposed to streamline things has been a nightmare for the last two years. The broadcasts change so often and so rapidly that there is no way that there can be a smooth transition through the supply chain. We can from needing to make 4,000 parts to 0 to 7,000 all in the space of 24 hours. Pretty much just guessing at this point.

[JBezugs]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Yep I have worked in Tier one for 30 years and watched this system grow.
Unfortunately what was supposed to streamline things has been a nightmare for the last two years. The broadcasts change so often and so rapidly that there is no way that there can be a smooth transition through the supply chain. We can from needing to make 4,000 parts to 0 to 7,000 all in the space of 24 hours. Pretty much just guessing at this point.

I can attest to this from what I've heard from friends working at T1 OEMs as well. In terms of the overall supply chain fiasco conversations, I can also say that in my own experience working in the AV/IT/Tech industry, it's the exact same story. I think anything that involves semi-conductors at this point has been killed. It took me 6 months to get my fridge when I moved to my new house a year and a half ago.

In my specific industry, product shortages and long lead time fluctuations have absolutely killed us since the start of the pandemic on critical products (control systems, video distribution, network switches, audio components etc.) and we've had to move from a JIT approach on project delivery to encouraging our larger clients to bulk-order commonly used, critical components for larger projects well ahead of time to ensure they'll be in our hands when time to implement. Even still there are no guarantees. 1-2 week lead times have extended to 12-16 months in most circumstances. And for the Automotive OEMs, they have to deal with a much higher quantity of components. We're constantly having to keep an eye out for suitable substitutions when lead times on components go tits up with no warning. Automotive OEMs don't get that same luxury either as far as I understand, at least not as agile as we can be.

This also has the knock on effect of having to have more space for more inventory and to hold that inventory for much longer.

It feels like a miracle that anything is still getting done at all some days

[jeepmor]

Originally Posted by JBezugs

It feels like a miracle that anything is still getting done at all some days

Exactly. Semis is contracting hard. I install and shuffle the furniture in the R&D labs. People are getting laid off and the multimillion dollar projects go on.

Might be in the right department, not sure yet.

[Flarpswitch]

More often than not, I know half of what I need to get the job done. I go to the shop for additional information and buy whatever I need. The so-called expert knows half of what I know. The one person who does have what I need died the previous week of old age. People with genuine product knowledge and subject matter expertise is now a rare thing. You won't find any of that on the floor at the car dealership.