Value of the car in 5 yrs

[Hawk77FT]

Hi all,

I was just plying with some numbers, and I was wondering: what do you reckon the resale value of a GTS will be in 3 or 5 yrs? I mean everybody wants one NOW but in 5 yrs there will be a flood of them on the market and the price will go down quite a lot.
Or even if I get it now and in say 6 months I sell it with say 10k on the clock. What would be the depreciation rate of this? I reckon it would be somewhere between 10 to 25% depending on the state of the car. I know that in the first year the rate is somewhere around 15-20%.

Also, the GTS will be the most sought after vehicle in my opinion, however I might be wrong given the higher number of GTS orders to dealerships.

Hmmm....

[Loki556]

Good luck with this.

Don't forget into account the rate of inflation and also take into account predicted interest rates, as a large number of these cars will be on loan/lease.

Don't foget the factor in a possibily of future natural disasters affecting production and changes to standard spec.

;P

If I stop being a smart ass, I think you can realisticly expect the car to be worth around 65% of its current price in three years. Going by Subaru/Toyota deprecciation rate.

[Nardi330]

Toyota historically has pretty good resale. not sure about Subaru tho.

it also depends if the car will be sort after. eg. DC2R had pretty good resale, holding 50% value after 8 years and 43% after 10.

at the end of the day it's all about demand/supply.

[Hawk77FT]

Originally Posted by Nardi330

Toyota historically has pretty good resale. not sure about Subaru tho.

it also depends if the car will be sort after. eg. DC2R had pretty good resale, holding 50% value after 8 years and 43% after 10.

at the end of the day it's all about demand/supply.

I guess it is, although it would be interesting to get some figures from Toyota and do a comparison analysis with other models. The problem is that this car is really taping into a different market than say Yaris. I also know it will depend on different other factors (disposable income, etc) and specifics of the market that this car is for, therefore an exact figure is very hard to find.

[sticky]

I reckon the 86 will have pretty good resale value because...

1. In terms of natural competitors it's only one is the mx-5 which is priced ridiculously at $50k. 86 has more power and better fuel economy and is more practical (though it ain't a roadster).

2. It is in short supply - over the next 2.5 years Aus is getting 1500 + 1800 + 1200 = 4500 cars. Last year alone there were about 4000 Golf GTIs sold.

3. Given the waiting list and the positive reviews you know that there is going to be a strong demand for it until something new in the genre comes along.

4. Japanese reliability

If I was to sell my car in 1.5-2 years time - and I think I should be able to get a price maybe $1-2k lower than the equivalent brand new GT model.

[Hawk77FT]

Originally Posted by sticky

If I was to sell my car in 1.5-2 years time - and I think I should be able to get a price maybe $1-2k lower than the equivalent brand new GT model.

And I'd say "Tell him, he's dreamin'" : Jokes aside that would be quite good though if the resale value would be somewhere around the sale value of a brand new GT.

[sticky]

Originally Posted by Hawk77FT

And I'd say "Tell him, he's dreamin'" : Jokes aside that would be quite good though if the resale value would be somewhere around the sale value of a brand new GT.

Lol but seriously apart from the people that just refuse to buy anything but a new car - I can't see why someone wouldn't want to pay a little less to get soo much more albeit with 20-30K already on the clock.

[Hawk77FT]

Originally Posted by sticky

Lol but seriously apart from the people that just refuse to buy anything but a new car - I can't see why someone wouldn't want to pay a little less to get soo much more albeit with 20-30K already on the clock.

Yep, depends how much tha "little less" is. that would be one reason. Then is the condition of the car. Then is the year of the car. Then is the stigma of this car. In few years is going to be quite hard to find something that hasn't be trashed around once in a while. This car screams for it, and some will take it to track days and whatnot. Then is the subjective side: can they afford it? Can they resale it later? Etc.
But if that "little less" is say 8-10 k less than one brand new ...then few people will consider it.

[Palmy]

Baught my current car at 5 years old, for 25% of its price when new.

[eckoflyte]

Just me theory though, eventually demand for new cars will taper off as the market starts to become saturated. Supply will eventually catch up with demand. Toyota and Subaru will eventually release revised editions with better spec making first gen models slightly more obsolete. Market will be flooded with second hand first gen specs, and second hand pricing must stay competitive to ensure sale. It other words, buying this car new, in my opinion, isnt the most financially viable decision. But if you enjoy it enough like I will, thats all that matters.

[70NYD]

You have to take in to consideration the high possibility of other manufacturers joining the fun as well
Toyobaru were the 1st ones to take the plunge, but if others join in, well that's a different ball game as the closest competitor won't be the overpriced mx5 anymore (which isn't a competitor, it's not a coupe)


Il tell you what I tell others, in this country, cars aren't a investment, they are a necessity (due to distances) and a leisure item. As such do not look at it from a monetary return point of view, rather look at it from a fun factor and enjoyment point of view. "how much is next 5 years of fun going to cost me per day/drive and is it worth the smiles and enjoyment?"


For this car, even if resale in 5 years is ~50% (ie 17k) which it could be, it is still worth it because you spent those 5 years with a smile on your face nailing corner after corner

[Justin.b]

Don't you have relatively easy access to used cars from Japan? If you do and there is a market for this model in Australia, someone will probably start bringing them over for sale. I assume that could hurt resale value.

-Justin

[Neziah]

Suby and toyota both have good resale value, but it will drop off the same as any new car does. In 5 years no one will care they were hard to get at release unless they quit making them for some reason.

[Bounce]

Originally Posted by Justin.b

Don't you have relatively easy access to used cars from Japan? If you do and there is a market for this model in Australia, someone will probably start bringing them over for sale. I assume that could hurt resale value.

-Justin

In 2042 you'll be able to import as many 86s as you want, I doubt resale will be an issue 30yrs from now...