Quote:
Originally Posted by mrg666
I will call it revolutionary if <5 min charging, >500 mile range with new battery chemistry and hybrid use of super capacitors. VW and others are still in the adoption stage of current tech, Tesla is working on the next tech. There is only Tesla who is betting everything on electric cars. My impression from their attitude is that VW, Toyota, Honda, Ford, GM, etc would just be relieved if electric cars go away and they could keep selling gasoline cars.
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That's not how it really works...electric motors are very well understood, anyone can hire a few electrical engineers to design all the stuff. Elon Musk has been making very good moves, first using induction motors, then reluctance motors, but now everyone else is going to copy.
In the longer run, aluminum or magnesium ion will replace lithium ion battery chemistry since they have inherently higher energy density. When the first experimental next-gen batteries become viable, the playing field will be completely level between Tesla and everyone else. That's when the big car makers are going to invest in big battery plants, and Tesla's drivetrain advantage will evaporate.
Their best asset right now is Autopilot. I don't expect that advantage to hold much longer either.